Could Sam Darnold have a Baker Mayfield-like revival?

If the Broncos move on from Russell Wilson — as widely expected — they will need to be cap-conscious with their quarterback decisions.

But that doesn’t mean they can’t be successful. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers served as an example of that. They absorbed over $67 million of dead money in 2023, most of which was tied to what remained of Tom Brady’s contract after he retired. And with Baker Mayfield on a one-year, $4-million contract, they improved their win total and advanced one round further in the playoffs than they did in Brady’s final season.

Mayfield took a circuitous route to that opportunity. The Browns — who drafted him No. 1 overall in 2018 — traded him to Carolina. There, he struggled. Eventually, he lost the job to Sam Darnold, who made a decent acquittal of himself. Mayfield went to the Rams to end the 2022 season, flourished — including a nearly-flawless game against the Broncos on Christmas 2022 — and parlayed that into a shot with the Bucs.

As for Darnold, he chose to take a year as a backup in San Francisco behind Brock Purdy. But his contract was a one-year deal. He will become an unrestricted free agent in March.

Could Sam Darnold — who was the No. 3 overall pick in 2018, two slots behind Mayfield — take a similar path as his fellow 2018 draftee?

“There are opportunities in this league for guys that don’t succeed at some places to go on and have success at others,” Fox Sports’ Joel Klatt said when he joined Mark Schlereth and Mike Evans on DenverSports/104.3 The Fan this week.

If the Broncos want a low-$$ QB for a Baker Mayfield-esque revival, might Sam Darnold fit?

As @joelklatt tells @DenverSportsCom “There are opportunities in this league for guys that don’t succeed at some places to go on & have success at others…Sam could be one of those guys.” pic.twitter.com/jgfeulce8m

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) January 25, 2024

“And I think — I mean, it’s hard to say for sure — but I think Sam could be one of those guys.”

KLATT: SAM DARNOLD IS A BETTER FIT FOR SEAN PAYTON THAN SOME OTHERS

The Broncos could have their pick of quarterbacks on the scratch-and-dent pile. And certainly, the examples of Mayfield and Jared Goff show how value can be found. The Los Angeles Rams dealt Goff as part of their trade for Matthew Stafford from the Detroit Lions; Goff eventually flourished and is back within one game of the Super Bowl.

Further, Sean Payton’s history reveals examples of finding quarterbacks who were deemed unwanted. He signed Drew Brees in 2006 — when the passer was dealing with a labrum injury — for New Orleans after the San Diego Chargers chose to move forward with 2004 first-round pick Philip Rivers. Perhaps more relevant is his work with Kerry Collins six years earlier; Collins was cut by the Panthers, not retained by the Saints and battled alcoholism. With the Giants, he found sobriety; with Payton, then the team’s offensive coordinator, he found an offense that recaptured his potential and ended up reviving his career to where he played another decade.

And in 2021, the Saints appeared playoff-bound with Jameis Winston replacing the recently-retired Brees before a torn ACL ended the former No. 1 overall pick’s season after seven games.

The point being: Much of Payton’s success came with quarterbacks deemed reclamation projects at one point. So the notion of Sam Darnold or New England’s Mac Jones isn’t absurd.

But among those two quarterbacks, Klatt sees Darnold as the superior option.

“So, if I were to go back to just their straight draft grade, Sam had a much higher grade than what Mac Jones would have had,” Klatt said. “Mac had one great year of college football, and it was a very unique year of college football. Remember, he had that great year in COVID. Now, you can say that it was more difficult, because he just played an SEC schedule. And that might be fair. But it was also a year in which you had multiple players that would be out due to COVID every single week, and he had an amazing team. Not to say that Sam didn’t, but I just thought that Sam was a better prospect coming out.

If you’re looking for a reclamation project, who's better: Mac Jones or Sam Darnold?@joelklatt told @DenverSportsCom that it’s Darnold.

“When I look at guys around the league that…can have success w/ a guy like Sean Payton, I think Sam Darnold would be on that list for me.” pic.twitter.com/LHTNjiZXB9

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) January 25, 2024

“I thought that the fit that Sam was forced into out of college — with the Jets — was just a disaster. And so much of this is about fit.

:When I look at guys around the league that can have success and can have success into the playoffs, can have success with a guy like Sean Payton, I think Sam Darnold would be on that list for me. He was always a very smart player. He was always very accurate with the football.”

Darnold didn’t play much for the 49ers this year, but there were glimpses of his skill set.

“And when you see the way that he played at times and at stretches with San Francisco, I think that there are some glimpses there,” Kilowatt said. “Now, you’ve gotta take that with a grain of salt, because how many quarterbacks have played their best football under (49ers coach) Kyle Shanahan? And specifically, this a team that is succeeding with a guy that was Mr. Irrelevant (Brock Purdy).”

And even if Darnold comes to Denver and works with Payton, the collection of skill players is unlikely to approach the constellation of stars with the 49ers.

“You know, there’s a lot of weapons on that team,” Klatt said. “They’ve got the best tackle in football, and running back in football and I would say adjuster type of player in Deebo Samuel. They’ve got a great tight end. So, clearly, it can be easier to succeed and play quality at that position with this team and with this play-caller.”

But historically, Payton is one of those types of play-callers. Which is why the idea of a reclamation project can’t be dismissed — and why Darnold could be worth a long look.