What the Nuggets need to do this summer to repeat, become a dynasty

The Denver Nuggets have just won their first title and with a deep postseason run comes a very short offseason.

The summer is already here and the NBA Draft is just days away, with free agency and trade season following soon thereafter. If the Nuggets are to repeat and start a dynasty, they’ll need to nail this off-season. Here’s a whole picture look at where the Nuggets are heading into this offseason, what they could lose and the paths they’ll use to improve their roster.

Here’s your Nuggets 2023 offseason preview:

Nuggets projected depth chart

PG: Jamal Murray, Collin Gillespie*
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Christian Braun
SF: Michael Porter Jr., Peyton Watson
PF: Aaron Gordon, Jeff Green*, Zeke Nnaji, Vlatko Cancar
C: Nikola Jokic

*Both Gillespie and Green are free agents. The Nuggets can qualify Gillespie as a restricted free agent, which means they can control the young point guard’s future. Gillespie was on a two-way contract and missed the entire season with a broken leg. The fact Denver kept him around means they likely see him as part of the future. Meanwhile Green has been open in saying he wants to stick around the Mile High City for two to three more seasons.

So the Nuggets have nine players under contract for next season with two more likely to come back. The NBA allows for 15 roster spots with three more additional slots for two-way players. Denver returns their entire starting five, and important rotational piece Christian Braun and regular season contributors Zeke Nnaji and Vlatko Cancar with prospect Peyton Watson. While I didn’t list quite as the slam dunk as Gillespie and Green are, I’d expect DeAndre Jordan to come back as well. Meaning Denver is probably going to fill three roster spots and three two-way slots.

Expiring contracts

Ish Smith, Thomas Bryant, Reggie Jackson, DeAndre Jordan, Jeff Green, Jack White*, Collin Gillespie*.
*can be an RFA

Team needs

Backup point guard if Bruce Brown leaves, backup big and bench scoring

Draft picks this week

No. 37 (via WAS) and No. 40 (via DAL)

Future draft assets

According to ESPN, The Nuggets have a 2024 first-round pick that they got in a recent trade with Oklahoma City. The Nuggets traded their own first to Charlotte this year and owe Orlando a top-5 protected first in 2025. But the Nuggets are allowed to trade their own 2024 first or the pick received from the Thunder thanks to that recent deal. Denver will also send Oklahoma City a top-5 protected first in 2027 and protected first in 2029. The Nuggets have three future second-round picks available.

Avenues for improvement

Draft, Taxpayer mid-level exception, veteran minimum, trade (including using a trade exception)

Trade exceptions

Expiring July 6, the Nuggets could take back just upward of $9 million in a trade due to the Monte Morris and Will Barton for KCP deal last summer. The Nuggets also have two smaller exceptions worth less than $3 million which expire in February. If Denver uses one of these, they’re unlikely to have the mid-level exception.

Salary Cap / Luxury Tax

The Nuggets are well over the salary cap and are almost certainly going to be a taxpaying team for a second-straight year. Denver will likely look to avoid the new second apron (supertax) which has roster ramifications in addition to a prohibitive cost. That apron line is at $179.5 million, and the Nuggets have $163 million committed to nine players as of now. Adding on Gillespie should be easy but it’s hard to project what Green will make. But if Green comes back on a minimum and Brown decides to come back, Denver may still be able to use the taxpayer mid-level exception.

The Bruce Brown decision

Brown’s 11.5 points per game were a career-high, he also tallied 4.1 rebounds and 3.4 assists per contest while playing 80 games. In the postseason he played both as a backup point guard and as a three-and-d wing.

Brown signed last summer in Denver after two years in Brooklyn where they couldn’t figure out how to use him but knew he was a good player. Brown was a point guard out of Miami but struggled in his first two seasons with the Pistons.

The deal Cowboy Bruce signed was for $13.3 million over two seasons but this second year is a $6.8 million player option. If he declines the Nuggets could offer him a total of $7.7 million for 2023-24. Brown has become a core member of the Nuggets and is arguably the team’s most important role player, at the very least he’s the most versatile.

But the same rule that allowed Brown to sign in Denver with the first place could prevent the Nuggets from keeping him. The taxpayer mid-level exemption is the deal Brown signed, which is significantly less than the non-taxpayer mid-level exemption or a straight-up cap space contract. That exemption is worth north of $12 million a season and could total a four-year $50 million deal.

Whereas if Brown comes back for one year at $7.7 million, he’ll be taking a significant risk before the Nuggets could offer him north of $13.4 million per season next offseason, starting in 2024.

Bruce has said he wants to come back but we’ll see what happens in the coming days.

Additions

Draft:

The Nuggets biggest add may come in the draft, they could package future assets or both their second-rounders to move up into the first round, which is something they reportedly are trying to do. The 2023 NBA Draft class is thought to be very good with a few stars at the top then rotation-level players that could get picked well into the second round. Without a trade look for Denver to may snag one of forward Julian Strawther, wing Terrence Shannon, forward Jalen Wilson, guard Marcus Sasser, guard Isaiah Wong or wing Andre Jackson Jr. If the Nuggets move up look for it to be in mind of a Brown replacement as a backup point and go for Jalen Hood-Schifino, Nick Smith Jr or Keyonte George.

Free agency and ring chasers

The Denver Nuggets now have the advantage the New England Patriots, whoever LeBron James is playing for and the Chicago Blackhawks had: veterans will take less money to seek a ring. Every more importantly given Jokic has proven with Brown, Jerami Grant, Gary Harris, Will Barton and others, the Nuggets star player will make possible additions look better and get them paid bigger on their next deal. Denver went from free agent wasteland to being in the discount business quickly.

The Nuggets big spend will be on a mid-level exception if they can use it. Guards Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Richardson, Dennis Schröder, Caris LeVert and Gabe Vincent or bigs Dwight Powell, Moritz Wagner, Mike Muscala, Dario Saric, Trey Lyles and Yuta Watanabe could be a target of this money. While it’s worth watching wings Derrick Jones Jr., Matisse Thybulle, Darius Bazley and Jae Crowder.

Meanwhile, could a veteran like Alec Burks, Austin Rivers, Joe Ingles, JaMychal Green or Cody Zeller take the minimum to ring chase?

Improvement

The Nuggets led the West in the regular season with a 53-29 record, as they snoozed to the finish line. Denver then went on a 16-4 tear through the postseason to win the title. The regular season record was very low for a west champ but it hides the fact that the Nuggets didn’t need to be better, and next season may be more of the same. The only slam dunk candidate for a big improvement is Oklahoma City, who finished all the way down in 10th, meaning they won’t catch Denver. Second-place Memphis has some serious issues, Sacramento isn’t a serious playoff threat while the Lakers, Clippers, Warriors and Suns are doing some serious re-tooling.

The way the Nuggets can stay above these teams and get maybe even better is simple: internal. In addition to nearly averaging a triple-double the entire regular and postseason, we saw a fully realized Joker on defense in the 20-game postseason. Couple him with Murray who will be in his second season off of knee reconstruction and Denver’s two best players just got better. Their third option, MPJ, has only played 187 regular season games, Jokic had played that many early into his third season (2017-18.) With a full offseason of health ahead of him and a good chunk of NBA games finally under his belt, MPJ could take yet another big leap. He used his size and rebounding in the playoffs to become a two-way contributor and while his shot faded in the NBA Finals, it’s evident if his shot fell at the same time he played defense at a high level, he’ll easily be an All-Star.

Outside of the Nuggets big three their bench could be much better. Malone used an eight-man rotation, bordering on seven in the playoffs. This is not something he can do during the regular season and staggering Gordon as a backup center seems unlikely. But for how woeful the Denver bench was at times when they were humming in the deep of winter, Nnaji and Cancar were the frontcourt. If the two can take the spot of the veteran Green, who was mostly fine but struggled at times, Denver could improve there too. But really it’s going to be onto Braun finding a way to become a constant 25 or so minute-a-night guy with a scoring touch and Watson finishing the year as a solid rotation piece that will boost Denver’s depth and potential of repeating.

Leadership

Clavin Booth just finished his first season as lead executive of the Nuggets, and while he did sign a multi-year contract extension that lasts through at least the 2024-25 NBA season, there might be talk of promotion. Former lead executive Tim Connelly was the President of Basketball Operations in Denver. Booth has remained just the general manager, which was his title under Connelly. Even before the title-winning season, there was a thought Booth would get the title bump.

Malone signed a multiyear contract ahead of the 2022-23 season, and it’s not publicly known what he makes or when his deal is done. But based on what Monty Williams just got paid from Pistons (six-year, $78.5 million contract) and the fact Malone’s Nuggets just knocked him out of the playoffs, the Nuggets head coach could be in line for a big raise.

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