The Wolves are going to test the Nuggets, here’s how Denver wins

The Denver Nuggets are looking to take down the Minnesota Timberwolves for a second straight year, as a follow-up act to beating the Los Angeles Lakers again in the NBA Playoffs.

The two Northwest Divison foes have a lot of crossing paths on and off the floor and the matchup should be fascinating for a variety of reasons. The Wolves are trying to avenge their loss to the Nuggets in the first round last season while Denver is trying to utilize the home court they won by beating the Wolves on April 10 to keep their repeat hopes alive. The history between these two teams goes much further than a playoff series from a season ago and Game 80 of the regular season between the 57-win Nuggets and 56-win T-Wolves.

The link between these two franchises goes through the coaching staff, the rosters, and in the way each has progressed. One would not exist in its current form without the other. And these are the facts that will likely make this second-round series the toughest opponent Denver has faced in the last two postseasons.

Summary of the Timberwolves

Minnesota improved by 14 wins this season, finishing with 56 which was good for the No. 3 seed and just one win shy of the Nuggets and the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Carried by a budding star in Anthony Edwards and two of the league’s standout bigs in Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert, the Timberwolves stayed mostly healthy and were consistently great all season long.

The Wolves had the No. 1 defense in the NBA this season and the 16th-best offense. Their defense was predicated on awesome paint protection from Gobert and stout outside protection guarding from Edwards, stopper Jaden McDaniels and veteran Mike Conley. Together opponents shot worse against the Wolves than they did against any other team in the league. Teams took the fourth-fewest and made the third-fewest threes against Minny while their bigs glassed the fifth-most defensive rebounds in the league.

On offense, the Timberwolves struggled at times to hold the ball tightly, make free throws and strangely get offensive rebounds. But their success was buoyed by the league’s third-best shooting percentage from deep while getting to the line nearly as well as anyone.

The Wolves are also very sure of themselves, playing eight players over 1,700 minutes this season and former Nuggets guard Monte Morris, who was picked up at the deadline, averaged 10 minutes a night after he joined—making nine Wolves who saw a lot of time on the floor. While the bench boss may be uncertain—we’ll get to that—the rotation is locked in for Minny. This proved to be true in the Timberwolves four-game sweep of the Phoenix Suns.

Timberwolves Projected Starting Five

PG: Mike Conley
SG: Anthony Edwards
SF: Jaden McDaniels
PF: Karl-Anthony Towns
C: Rudy Gobert

Stars of the Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards, shooting guard, 6-4, 79 GP, 25.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 5.1 APG, 46% FG/36% 3FG/84% FT
Karl-Anthony Towns, big, 7-0, 62 GP, 21.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 3.0 APG, 50% FG/41% 3FG/87% FT

Two former first-overall picks who have had drastically different trajectories since entering the NBA, KAT and Ant are each coming off their first playoff series win and the first for the Wolves since 2004. The two make for a really strong paring on offense. Edwards’ 14.6 drives a game during the regular season was the ninth-most among NBA players who played in 65 games. While Towns shoots 5.3 threes a night, a ton for a seven-footer.

On defense, the NBA’s more lax rules in the second half allowed the very strong Ant to play more physical defense while Towns spent most of that time off the floor injured. KAT just came back ahead of the playoffs and has only been on the floor for six games since getting the go-ahead. In their four-game sweep of the Suns, Towns was just a touch under his season averages but shot a blistering 52% on just over four triples a game.

It is Ant, who has turned up another level in the playoffs the past two years. His first experience in the postseason in 2022, saw him score 25 a game. Against the Nuggets last year in the first and then again against the Suns this year in the first, Edwards was over 31 points a night. On eight triples a game, he shot 43% in this year’s first round and collected eight rebounds a game. Simply, his impact is becoming more ubiquitous and efficient—the 22-year-old is a season more savvy and a season better.

Series X-factor for the Timberwolves: Jaden McDaniels

At 6-foot-9, and 185 pounds McDaniels is a giant wing with good foot speed. McDaniels will be tasked with stopping Jamal Murray—and he knows him well. Murray faced McDaniels more than he faced anyone in the league this year aside from Luguentz Dort. NBA data tracked McDaniels as playing about 20 minutes of defense against Murray this season and it resulted in the Blue Arrow’s points dropping to 17.3 across their three games.

McDaniels was able to effectively make Murray work just a bit extra and given the Blue Arrow is a bit frosty shooting and gimpy coming into the series, this matchup may end poorly for Denver.

In the first round, McDaniels was tasked with defending fellow Kentucky guard Devin Booker mostly, as well as spending a ton of time on Kevin Durant—ending up with about 20 minutes on each total. Booker scored just 18 of his 110 points in the series while McDaniels was on him, seeing his shooting numbers drop to a brutal 33%. Meanwhile, Durant was only able to get off a single three-point shot against McDaniels, though the Hall of Famer saw much better luck with his efficiencies near the hoop—not that it mattered much.

If McDaniels sounds a bit new to you it’s because you didn’t see him in last year’s series against the Nuggets. The forward punched a wall just before the playoffs and was out with a broken hand. The 17-a-game Murray got against the Wolves in the regular season in 2023-24, was a lot different than the 27-a-night he tallied in the five-game series last spring. A lot of that credit can go to McDaniels.

Nuggets Projected Starting Five

PG: Jamal Murray
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SF: Michael Porter Jr.
PF: Aaron Gordon
C: Nikola Jokic

Series X-factor for the Nuggets: Aaron Gordon

There’s one more Minnesota big that has yet to be covered but will have a big impact in this matchup: Naz Reid. The NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year is quick with a sweet shot and an electric overall game. That makes for three big men Denver will have to plan for, putting a ton of pressure on AG to both protect the floor on one end and space it on the other. Reid also missed last year’s series.

In Round 1, Jokic and Gordon played every center minute for Denver outside of Game 1. AG picked up two early fouls on the Lakers and Michael Malone called on DeAndre Jordan’s name for nine minutes. Jordan actually played 10 minutes in the series last year against the Wolves but he’s practically an emergency option at this point. This means Gordon will likely have to slow KAT down while the starting fives are out there, then go toe-to-toe with Gobert at the center as a backup and also run around chasing Reid. If Minnesota is going to be able to break Denver’s eighth-rated defense, it’ll hinge on pushing Gordon beyond his limits.

On offense, AG scored nearly 14 points a game in the series last year and hit four threes. It’s very unlikely he’ll pop off for 29 as he did against the Lakers and mostly on dunks but it’s key that he is a worry for the Wolves defense at all times. Minnesota was one of the few teams in the NBA this season to hold Gordon under 10 points a night.

What to expect from Nikola Jokic

Some of the Joker’s most iconic games have come against Gobert. Jokic only loves horses and his family more than cooking the soon-to-be four-time Defensive Player of the Year.

Jokic’s postseason coming out party that sparked his three MVPs in four seasons came in the bubble against Gobert in 2020. Then with the Jazz, Rudy’s team blew a 3-1 lead to the Nuggets, who got Bubble Murray’d but many forget Jokic going off for over 30 in Games 5 and 7.

The matchup for the Serbian against the Frenchman has only gotten more cruel, with Jokic collecting two triple-doubles and an at the time playoff career high of 43 in the series last year. There’s also the infamous “brother I have 47 (points)” line Jokic shouted at Gobert as he waived off a double team.

If any team in the NBA is to not afraid of Gobert’s Hall of Fame-worthy defense it’s the Nuggets because Jokic has had his number for years.

Jokic’s first round this year saw him average 28.2 points, 16.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists a game on 59% shooting—last year’s first round against the Wolves Jokic was at 26.2 points 12.4 rebounds and 9 assists a game on 49% shooting. So Rudy can everso slightly slow Jokic, that or the Timberwolves defense as a whole can muck it up. And in that, the Wolves size around Gobert is something to watch. The only times Jokic has looked beatable in the past half-decade is against the Suns in 2021 and Warriors in 2022. Nikola was without Murray for both series and Porter for the second. Denver was downed easily as the teams clogged the lane and in the Suns case, used a ton of size to clog passing and shooting lanes for the MVP. Denver’s 31% shooting in the first round was the fourth-worst in the playoffs, meaning the Wolves may be able to clog it up some.

How the Nuggets can beat the Timberwolves

This is the only matchup in the NBA where the Nuggets opponents have both a size and speed advantage. Normally with 6-foot-10 MPJ playing the three, 6-foot-10 Aaron Gordon at the four and 7-footer Jokic playing the five, coupled with the backcourt of Murray and KCP—Denver outsizes teams. And normally when you’re smaller in the NBA, at least you’re faster—but that’s not really true either.

Denver and Minny were two of the slowest-paced teams in the league, and while it’s true that the Timberwolves were the second-worst fastbreak team in the NBA, the Nuggets were just the middle of the pack there.

The Wolves’ most used and starting lineup outplayed opponents by 9.5 points per 100 possessions this season, while the Nuggets starting five was a West-best +13. On the season, the entire Wolves as a team had the league’s third-best NET rating at +6.6, led by the No. 1 defense. Denver’s offense finished fifth-best and the team’s defense was eighth-best by NET, as whole the Nuggets were fourth-best in the league at +5.4.

Since the All-Star Break the Nuggets have really turned it on, going 25-7 accounting for the first round. During the regular season, the Nuggets post All-Star NET was second-best in the NBA at +9.8. The Wolves were just ninth at +4.5 in NET.

In the first round, the Wolves had a much higher NET, sweeping the Suns vs Denver slogging it out for five games where they mostly trailed. Interestingly in the fourth quarters alone in the first round, the Nuggets and Wolves basically had the same elite ratings.

In a way, Denver was looking to make their last series a slog since the Lakers were fastbreaks and Denver was plotting. Slowing the game down can help the Nuggets against the Wolves in getting exactly what they want but it will also allow Minny to set up the league’s top defense. Denver’s pace and taking advantage of transition will be a huge story in the series.

The Wolves will likely get to the foul line a lot more than the Nuggets. This season they shot a top third of the league 22.9 foul shots a game whereas Denver’s 13.2% of points from the stripe was the fifth-lowest mark in league history.

The Nuggets Joker in their pocket so to speak is Jokic. He’s the best player in this series and it’s not close. And a lot of times in basketball—having the best player wins you a series, as we saw last summer.

Jokic will need to play his A game, Gordon will need to do just about everything, Murray will need to break McDaniels and KCP will need to slow Ant. Can these things all happen? Yeah, in fact, they’re likely to happen and it’s why the Nuggets are favorites in the series. For Denver, this thing could actually bust wide open if Michael Porter Jr. has another 22.8-point, 8.4-rebound-a-game-on-55% shooting as he did in Round 1.

Another few things you should know about Nuggets vs Timberwolves

While we know what the Wolves will bring on the floor, absolutely nobody knows who is going to coach this team or who the franchise’s owner really is.

Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore are trying to buy the team from Glen Taylor, but the situation has devolved into a mess that now hits mediation just as their series with the reigning champions tips.

Oh and fans in the Twin Cities have had a basketball team since 1989, but they’ve only twice made it out of the first round—including this year. The Wolves beat the Nuggets en route to a 2004 appearance in the conference finals led by Flip Saunders. His son, also a former head coach for the Wolves, is now part of Malone’s staff. Also on Denver’s bench is another former Wolves head coach’s son, David Adelman.

Speaking of coaches…

Leading the Timberwolves now is Former Nuggets’ assistant Chris Finch, with another former Nuggets assistant Micah Nori by his side. But Finch and Nori may not be on the bench together for Game 1. While the Wolves were wrapping things up in Game 4 against the Suns, Mike Conley collided with Finch’s knee—putting his status for the series in question as he’s now set for knee surgery. So it was Nori leading the Wolves in the final moments of their sweep, a giant win for the franchise considering it was just their second trip out of the first round.

The boss of Finch and Nori? Well, that would be former Nuggets executive Tim Connelly, who built most of Denver’s roster and bolted to Minnesota last summer. Connelly’s big move was for Gobert, which at first looked like one of the worst trades in NBA history but may not be a stroke of genius. Connelly is still close with all in Denver, in fact, he visited the Nuggets locker room to congratulate players and staff after that huge Timberwolves loss in Game 80, the reason this series tips at a Mile High.

Of course, Connelly’s best draft pick was Jokic, the lone MVP to go in the second round. But another of Connelly’s biggest hits is former Nuggets guard Monte Morris, who Connelly traded for at the deadline. Morris isn’t a huge piece for the Wolves but should get action in the series.

Morris and Conley on the court do represent one area of size advantage of the Nuggets, as the Wolves will likely have one of the two on the floor at all times. If Murray can get either on a switch, that’s a favorable matchup for Denver.

Speaking of Conley, Minny’s best hope might be a Conley-Gobert pick and roll as an added element to their game. It’s something that already lost those two a 3-1 series lead to the Nuggets when the guard and big duo’d for the Jazz. Older and less skilled the Nuggets can attack that action and force perimeter shots from a team that sometimes struggles with spacing.

A big storyline in this postseason for the Nuggets is how Christian Braun fills in for the since-departed Bruce Brown. The now Raptor had a massive impact on Denver’s postseason last year, hitting double-digit figures off the bench four times against the Wolves last year. Over the final 16 games of the regular season, Braun seemed to find a new level, scoring nine points a night while adding 4.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists a contest in addition to great defense. But the last time Braun made a three in the postseason was 20 games ago, in Game 5 against the Wolves last year. He managed to be a positive impact player in three games of the first round this season but his role will be larger in Round 2. Braun will need to chip in on Edwards, who may be too strong for KCP and too fast for Gordon.

That also means Peyton Watson’s number will likely get called. He scored eight points in the opening quarter of Game 1 against the Lakers and then just nine points the rest of the series. By the end of the five games, it didn’t seem like Malone had much use for him.

It’s also key to remember that without Game 82 of the 2017-18 season, neither team is likely here today. The Timberwolves won the final game of the year to grab the eighth seed and send Denver home for the summer. At the time, the Nuggets hadn’t made the playoffs with this current core, and Malone was thought to be on the chopping block but he was kept. Connelly also was kept, proving his worth in building up Denver and now doing what it takes to stop the monster he made. Without that Wolves win, the series of events that led them to the No. 1 pick and Edwards likely doesn’t play out either.

The last thing to watch is the injury report. Reggie Jackson, KCP and Murray all have leg injuries that noticeably impacted them later on in the series against the Lakers.

Schedule of the series

May 4: Game 1, 5 p.m. (TNT), Denver
May 6: Game 2, 8 p.m. (TNT), Denver
May 10: Game 3, 7:30 p.m. (TNT), Minnesota
May 12: Game 4, 6 p.m. (TNT), Minnesota
May 14: Game 5, 7 p.m. (TNT), Denver *
May 16: Game 6, xxx (xxx), Minnesota*
May 19: Game 7, xxx (xxx), Denver *

Series odds

Nuggets: -215
Timberwolves: +172