Does Pro Football Focus get it right with its Russell Wilson ranking?
May 29, 2023, 9:35 AM | Updated: 11:55 am
Everybody loves rankings. Well, everybody doesn’t love them, but they certainly do garner a lot of attention.
Recently, Pro Football Focus has released their quarterback rankings for the 2023 season. I know some may dismiss rankings from PFF, but I have a lot of friends in that company that I respect. I also know former NFL players that currently or formerly worked for PFF. Some of those guys have gone into the coaching ranks, and these guys could be future head coaches in the league. It’s my way of saying, think what you will about PFF, but don’t completely write off what they say.
So, where does Russell Wilson rank amongst NFL quarterbacks heading into the 2023 season? PFF has the Broncos QB at No. 20 for this season. That’s a ranking that just seemed a bit off when I first read the article.
1. Patrick Mahomes
2. ?Who is QB2 in the NFL? https://t.co/W97g8BVY01
— PFF (@PFF) May 28, 2023
Let’s take a look at who is above Wilson, who is below Wilson, and whether or not this ranking is accurate.
***
Notables Above
There are players ranked above Wilson that I don’t think should be. Again, I respect the work PFF does, but I just can’t see some of these guys being better than Wilson is 2023. In this section, I will look at the players I think Wilson is better than right now. Whether or not these players actually surpass Wilson’s play will be up to the future.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams quarterback, is ranked No. 12 on this list. That’s way too high based on what Stafford looked like last season. In nine games, Stafford had 10 touchdown passes before being shut down for the year due to a brain injury. Add in his elbow problems, and you can see how Stafford just isn’t worthy of being considered a second-tier quarterback.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks quarterback, is ranked No. 15 on this list. Smith certainly began the 2022 season on a hot streak as one of the best in the league. However, his season fell off as the year went on and he’s likely to settle in somewhere near the middle of the pack – which is where he’s ranked. Smith is good, and he’s better than some give him credit for. Will he be better than Wilson this year? I’m not sure about that.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions quarterback, is a competent passer who ranks No. 16 in the league according to PFF. Like Smith, this seems right given the talent but let’s take a look at what makes Goff tick. He is running one of the best offenses in the NFL, and there is a lot of talent around him – certainly more than the Broncos had around Wilson last year. Not only Payton, but healthy weapons around Wilson could have him posting better numbers than Goff does this season.
Daniel Jones, the New York Giants starter, finally had a good season in 2022 and PFF ranks him as the No. 17 quarterback entering this season. Working under first-year head coach Brian Daboll in 2022, we saw a rejuvenated Jones. He’s still not a great passer, as evidenced by his league-worst big-time throw percentage, but Jones is a threat as a runner. Daboll is great, one of my favorite coaches in the league, but there’s only so far he can go with Jones. That’s something which should become abundantly clear in 2023.
Ryan Tannehill is the Tennessee Titans starting quarterback – for now. He’s one spot ahead of Wilson at No. 19 on PFF’s list. I just don’t see it. The Titans are already past the window they had with Tannehill as their starter. Thanks to running back Derrick Henry, the Titans were a playoff contender for a few seasons but no more. I think Tannehill is benched in favor of rookie second-round pick Will Levis at some point. Wilson will play better than he did last year, and that’s clearly going to be better than a player who seems washed up like Tannehill.
***
Notables Below
There are some players ranked behind Wilson that could be better than him this year. Most of the players behind Wilson are unproven – rookies and young players who lack experience. It’s a stretch for some, but there are scenarios where these players perform better than Wilson.
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers starting quarterback, is ranked No. 22 on this list. The Steelers are going to run the heck out of the ball, so Pickett’s opportunities as a passer might be more limited than some. Simply due to the nature of the offense, Pickett may not get to air it out as much as other passers. However, the Steelers have improved talent around him on offense and he should be more comfortable in his second season as the team’s starter. There’s a good chance Pickett>Wilson in 2023.
Brock Purdy, quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers, is No. 23 on the list. He’d be higher had it not been for an elbow injury that ended his season. The 49ers system is fantastic, and Purdy is getting the most out of his skill set running what Kyle Shanahan wants him to. He avoided Tommy John surgery, and Purdy should be ready for the start of the regular season. If he beats out former No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance for the starting job, Purdy may continue his strong play – further propelling him up the list.
Sam Howell, the Washington Commanders quarterback, is a sleeper on this list in my opinion. It’s correct to put him at No. 27, but if he finished in the top-15 this year I wouldn’t be surprised. There is only one game to go on from last year when Howell was a rookie thrust into the lineup. He was good, and he’s certainly flashed ability, but I’ll also go back to his college days at North Carolina. There was a time when Howell was considered a top quarterback – perhaps even no.1 overall – coming into the NFL. His final season with the Tar Heels wasn’t great (and they lost a lot of talent around him), and Washington may have gotten a steal when they drafted him in the fifth round last year. I think Wilson>Howell right now, but the potential is there for Howell to be a quality starter – perhaps even better than Wilson.
***
Conclusion
I did not like this ranking at first. However, looking over things, I have had a change of heart. I think this is about where Wilson is at, but there is a chance for him to break into the top-12 again with better play this year under Payton.
It’s all going to come down to how Wilson and Payton mesh. Payton is going to run the show, and I believe Wilson gets the best out of himself this season. He may no longer be a tier-one quarterback, but Wilson could be a nice tier-two quarterback under Payton. That’s worthy of a higher ranking than No. 20.
***
