Could Zach Wilson be the Broncos’ Week 1 starter?

For all the buzz around first-round quarterbacks, it’s a 2021 first-rounder — Zach Wilson — who is the only such player in Centura Health Training Center as the hours dwindle before the 2024 NFL Draft.

And it’s possible that after Thursday night, he might still be the only first-round quarterback in the building. He has the most starting experience of any of the Broncos’ quarterbacks; with 33 career pro starts, he towers over Jarrett Stidham (4 games) and Ben DiNucci (one game).

Despite his issues, NFL on Fox analyst Mark Schlereth — the co-host of Schlereth and Evans on Denver Sports/104.3 The Fan — believes that when the Broncos begin the 2024 season, Zach Wilson will take the first snap.

“I’m gonna go Zach Wilson,” Schlereth told Hans Olsen and Scott Garrard on the Hans and Scotty G. show on KSL Sports in Salt Lake City this week. “Even if they take a first-rounder, I think there’s huge growing pains that are going to be involved in that.”

Who will be the Broncos’ Week 1 starting QB?@NFLonFOX’s @markschlereth told @975Hans & @ScottyGZone on @KSLSportsZone it’ll be Zach Wilson.

“Beyond maybe Caleb Williams, maybe Jayden Daniels, who’s got more talent than Zach Wilson in this draft? And I would argue nobody does.” pic.twitter.com/bdeZB0u0TM

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) April 25, 2024

Further, Schlereth has confidence in Wilson’s raw talent.

“From a talent perspective, unbelievable. And now he’s here, what does it do?” Schlereth said on his morning show with Mike Evans earlier this week.

“Like, the pressure to go get a first-rounder that in all likelihood probably is going to fail anyway, don’t you want the experience of failure to sit there and say, ‘Hey, man, now I’m gonna coach you up and now let’s see what you can become’ — if he’s made of the right stuff. “I don’t know if he is. You don’t know if he is. Nobody knows if he is.

“But I guarantee you — if we’re just evaluating talent, do I think he’s more talented than pretty much every guy in this draft? Yep, I do.”

Regarding Zach Wilson, @DenverSportsCom & @NFLonFOX’s @markschlereth says this to @MikeEvans1043:

“If we're just evaluating talent, do I think he's more talented than pretty much every guy in this draft? Yep, I do." pic.twitter.com/lAQLsAsvRj

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) April 24, 2024

TO BE VIABLE, ZACH WILSON HAS TO BE BETTER

And more consistent — at least, consistently positive.

“I went back and watched a couple of the games — a couple of the good games he played,” Schlereth said. “I’ve seen plenty of the bad games he’s played, and he’s played some real dogs.

“But I went back and looked at some of the good games he’s played and I’ll tell you what: (there is) accuracy, arm talent, making some anticipatory throws.”

Still, the collective numbers accumulated by Zach Wilson are frightening.

Among 53 quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts since 2021, Zach Wilson’s rankings in some key efficiency metrics are, to put it kindly, abysmal:

• Passer rating: 73.2, 53 of 53
• Expected points added per play: minus-.161, 51 of 53
• Success rate (per RBSDM.com): 38.8 percent, 51 of 53
• Success rate (per pro-football-reference.com): 37.0, 52 of 53
• On-target percentage: 72.0, 53 of 53

Sean Payton has improved the fortunes of former first-round quarterbacks before. He revived the career of Kerry Collins, a top-5 pick in 1995. He guided Teddy Bridgewater from injury recovery to a starting role again, as Bridgewater got a starter’s contract in Carolina in 2020 after two years as New Orleans’ backup. And he had Jameis Winston briefly revived before a torn ACL seven games into 2021.

But Wilson’s past form is far worse than those quarterbacks. Making the former BYU standout into a viable NFL starter would be Payton’s greatest accomplishment yet.

And whether the Broncos take a quarterback or not, we might find out whether Payton can turn Wilson into more than a bottom-tier starter.