In drafting Bo Nix, the Broncos made the right call

That Bo Nix was the 6th quarterback taken in the 2024 NFL Draft does not matter.

You’ll hear it a lot in the coming weeks. QB6! How could they take QB6 when their top defensive player on their board was available? When tight end wonder Brock Bowers was still available?

First, forget about QB6. The 2024 class is different. Deeper at the most important position. Where QB6 went 127 picks into last year’s draft, this year it went 12.

Not all years are created equal.

And that brings about the second point: Next year’s QB class does not appear as robust as the 2024 grouping. When the putative top quarterback in the class, Shedeur Sanders, has only played for his father since high school, that’s enough justification for pause before embracing the passers available at the top of the class.

The time to strike was now.

And the Broncos had a reasonable pick — enough to take their man and a viable prospect on a board from which they saw six first-round quarterbacks.

The chances of next year bringing that many prospects at the game’s most important position were remote. That they were able to get a player they valued — and who appears to be an ideal fit for Sean Payton — without sacrificing draft capital was a bonus.

Sean Payton on Bo Nix: “Early into the process, shortly after these workouts, he stood out in a lot of areas…sack differential, turnover differential, accuracy, 3rd-down passing, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st in his class, 1st in end of half, 1st in end-of-game 2-minute, 2nd in red zone…” pic.twitter.com/Qe9u7WQTKc

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) April 26, 2024

THE BRONCOS WAITED AND WONDERED FOR A WHILE

That doesn’t mean the Broncos weren’t nervous — especially when the Atlanta Falcons stunned the league by taking Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8.

The second run on quarterbacks — after the 1-2-3 passer opening of the draft — was officially on.

“We were talking about a couple moves and then when Atlanta took Penix, now it was like, ‘Holy cow. Do we have to go up?’” Payton said.

Two picks later, the Vikings — perhaps believing the Broncos were plotting to get J.J. McCarthy — moved up one spot to take the Michigan quarterback.

“When Minnesota jumped, we were like, ‘Oh, boy. OK,’” general manager George Paton said.

The gap from QB6 to QB7 in the draft is a gulf. Which meant that after the Vikings took McCarthy at No. 10, another team could have jumped them to No. 11. But in the end, the Jets stood pat after trading down one slot.

The Broncos had chances to trade down. But with the Raiders sniffing around quarterbacks at No. 13 and reported interest from teams like the Los Angeles Rams in Bo Nix, they weren’t in a mood to get cute.

“We took calls from teams ahead of us. Never really got too serious,” Paton said. “We considered moving back. But once Penix went, it got a little stressful there at the end. You had the Raiders behind us. And so, we just didn’t want to overthink it. This was our guy. We’re going to take our guy.

George Paton: "We could have moved a couple of picks back & maybe got some picks, but at the end of the day, this (Bo Nix) was our guy. Let’s just take him. Let’s not overthink it. We would have been sick if we lost him just for a couple of fifth-round picks or what have you.” pic.twitter.com/otN6o8VAWW

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) April 26, 2024

“But we did think about it. Not too far. We could have moved a couple of picks back and maybe got some picks, but at the end of the day, this was our guy. Let’s just take him. Let’s not overthink it.

“We would have been sick if we lost him just for a couple of fifth-round picks or what have you.”

THE POSITION VALUE AT AN AREA OF CRYING NEED MEANT TAKING BO NIX WAS NECESSARY

They didn’t force the pick of Bo Nix. This wasn’t an example of selecting a player they kind of like. He was higher on their board than the “QB6” status in the draft class would dictate. And their board is all that matters.

So, at No. 12 they got a prospect they cherished at a position group that was objectively the worst in the NFL coming into Thursday night.

“Early into the process, shortly after these workouts, he stood out in a lot of areas,” Payton said. “You pay close attention to all the film study and obviously he’s played a lot of football, but sack differential, turnover differential, accuracy, third-down passing, first, firstm first, first in his class, first in end of half, first in end-of-game two-minute situations, second in red zone.

“… And then let’s do another passing statistic and let’s remove a lot of the short, underneath throws, and obviously, that’s part of what they do offensively and you remove that and you come back with the analytics and it’s still first. But I would say his harm strength was — we saw it in the Pro Day, but then even in the private workout was very good. And he’s super smart.”

Smart, accurate and a good processor. All the things Payton craves.

Now, that league-worst position group has a chance to improve drastically in a short time, depending on how quickly Nix adapts.

Yes, history would say that somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 percent of the quarterbacks selected in Round 1 will not work out. The 2015-22 sample size includes 25 quarterbacks, and 13 of them — 52 percent — became legitimate franchise quarterbacks, although one of them — 2016 No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz — reached that point and then flamed out spectacularly in his final three seasons with Philadelphia, to the point where he is now a backup with the Kansas City Chiefs.

But to hit on a quarterback is to change the outlook of a franchise. And for five years, to have a cost-controlled asset at the sport’s priciest position.

If Nix makes the progress in the next nine months that one should reasonably expect, the Broncos will be able to attack next year’s offseason with a contract worth pennies on the dollar and resources to pour into a supporting cast. They might have one of the highest-paid offensive lines in football if they re-sign Quinn Meinerz, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

The months and years to come will reveal the extent of Nix’s abilities.

But at No. 12 in a deep quarterback class, the risk-reward ratio was right. The Broncos took the chance at which they blanched in previous drafts since the scalding experience of trading up to select Paxton Lynch in 2016.

Payton and Paton had a night that was equal parts bold and prudent.

They got their quarterback. They didn’t surrender their future to do it.

Their direction and plan are clear. There appears to be alignment. And if it succeeds, no one will care that Nix was the sixth quarterback taken.