How the Nuggets can beat LeBron and the Lakers for a trip to the Finals

The Denver Nuggets have never made it to the NBA Finals and if they’re going to make history, again they’ll have to beat the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Nuggets are appearing in the Western Conference Finals for the fifth time in franchise history, matching up the Lakers in their last four trips. Most recently was in the 2020 bubble when LeBron James, Anthony Davis and crew downed Denver in five games en route to a championship. But James and Davis are all the Lakers have left from that team while the Nuggets are healthy in the postseason right now for the first time since 2020.

A ton has changed since 2020 between these two clubs but a ton has changed even since the trade deadline for the Lakers. But none of that changes these two franchises’ brands, seven times they’ve squared off in playoffs and the Lakers have won all seven. Denver has only even earned one chance to put the Lakers away, failing to win a Game 7 in the 2008 first round.

Summary

After starting 2-10 under rookie head coach Darvin Ham, the Lakers earned the seventh seed in the west with a 43-39 record and a win against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the play-in tournament. The Lakers were a bad team for most of the season, which was remade at the trade deadline. The Nuggets went 2-2 against L.A. this season but both games came before that makeover deadline, rendering them hard to glean much from.

The Lakers sent out future Hall of Famer Russell Westbrook, who wasn’t a great fit. Former All-Star D’Angelo Russell came back with former Nuggets Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley as well as big man Mo Bamba. The Nuggets actually sent out Bones Hyland in this deal, moving him to the Clippers and giving Lakers Davon Reed for reserve center Thomas Bryant. Reed was cut for former Nugget Shaquille Harrison, who rides the bench. The Lakers went 19-8 to finish the regular season then knocked off a hobbled two-seeded Grizzlies squad before taking down the reigning champion Warriors.

Projected Starting Five

PG: D’Angelo Russell
SG: Austin Reaves
SF: LeBron James
PF: Jarred Vanderbilt
C: Anthony Davis

Stars

LeBron James, portionless, 6-9, 55 GP, 28.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 6.8 APG, 50% FG/32% 3FG/77% FT
Anthony Davis, big, 6-10, 56 GP, 25.9 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 2.6 APG, 56% FG/26% 3FG/78% FT

LeBron James is one of the greatest players, if not the greatest player ever. This is his 12th trip to Conference Finals, advancing to the NBA Finals 10 times. King James is seeking a fifth championship to go along with the all-time scoring title he captured this year.

But James isn’t the same player he was ten or even five years ago. His scoring average in these playoffs is down below 24 points per game and while he has flashes of dominance, for the most part, he’s a sidekick to Davis. AD, when not injured, has been one of the better players in basketball for some time and he’s done relatively well against Denver. But most of this came as a power forward.

The Nuggets biggest issue with Davis and James in the bubble was the rest of the team, primarily the Lakers bigs. Denver’s star big man Nikola Jokic has done well against Davis when he’s been the biggest man on the floor.

X-factor: Austin Reaves

The Lakers went 19-9 when Reaves scored 15 or more points this season and they’re 4-2 in the postseason when hits that mark. Reaves will likely draw the assignment of guarding Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray, so his defense and 40% three-point shot will be heavily relied upon.

Reaves, only a second-year undrafted player, gets some of the most favorable foul calls in the NBA.

How the Nuggets can beat them

Size, speed strength, star power… and depth. I wrote this about the Suns series as well, but the Nuggets are huge, with bigger bodies than the Suns at nearly every position on the court, Denver scored three-and-a-half more points in the paint per game than the Lakers during the playoffs. Jokic is far bigger and better than Davis and Aaron Gordon is more of a traditional power forward who can make James work.

Denver is a far quicker team, scoring more fastbreak points than the Lakers in the postseason despite playing at a slower pace. Meaning the Nuggets can turn on the burners when needed. The Lakers need to get out in transition, it’s where LeBron is still at his best. Noticeable advantages for the Nuggets come with Jamal Murray against Russell and Bruce Brown against the Lakers bench.

Speaking of the Lakers bench, 10 players have gotten more than 85 minutes in this postseason thus far. It hints at how Ham is still searching for answers and the correct rotation. In comparison, only eight Nuggets have played more than 15 minutes. While the Nuggets have struggled most of the season to get their bench working, Michael Malone has found a great eight-man rotation. Denver is simply more confident in their depth than the Lakers.

Oh and as for LeBron and Davis… Jokic is the best player in this series in 2023, and it’s not close.

Another few things you should know

Like Reaves’ whistle, the refs will 100% be a factor in this series. Here’s what the refs thought were fouls on Jokic the last time these two teams met in the postseason. And yes, LeBron and the Lakers sent the NBA a letter complaining about how Los Angeles wasn’t getting enough calls in that series.

How many of these look like fouls? pic.twitter.com/xLGR4SD2fP

— Nuggets and politics (@chmorley) September 19, 2020

Former Nuggets draft pick Jarred Vanderbilt has been a really good and active player for the Lakers at times but has bounced in and out of the lineup. He’s an important defensive player who can hit the glass pretty hard. Vanderbilt will likely play more against the Nuggets than the Warriors based on how the teams match up.

On-ball defender and three-point sharpshooter Kentavious Caldwell-Pope of the Nuggets won that bubble title in 2020 with the Lakers. Meanwhile Jeff Green was on James’ Cavs in the 2018 NBA Finals. Fellow veteran DeAndre Jordan was on the Lakers last season for a time. The biggest connection may be Michael Malone, who worked as an assistant coach from 2005-2010 for LeBron’s Cavs. Malone’s dad also coached James for a time and the NBA great has a deep respect for the Nuggets coach.

Schedule

Game 1: Tuesday, May 16, 6:30 p.m. Denver, ESPN
Game 2: Thursday, May 18, 6:30 p.m. Denver, ESPN
Game 3: Saturday, May 20, 6:30 p.m. Los Angeles, ABC
Game 4: Monday, May 22, 6:30 p.m. Los Angeles, ESPN
Game 5: Wednesday, May 24, 6:30 p.m. Denver, ESPN*
Game 6: Friday, May 26, 6:30 p.m. Los Angeles, ESPN*
Game 7: Sunday, May 28, 6:30 p.m. Denver, ESPN*