Three numbers to know for Broncos-Chiefs

DENVER — It starts with the obvious …

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13

This, of course, is the length of the Broncos’ losing streak to the Kansas City Chiefs. It is the Broncos’ longest skid against an AFC West opponent since a 14-game streak to the then-Oakland Raiders that covered the 1965-71 seasons.

But the last 13 AFC West games have also been the worst since the Broncos began play in that division in 1970. Denver is 1-12 in its most recent 13 AFC West games, good for the lowest 13-game divisional win percentage in club history.

A defeat Sunday will not only give the Broncos their worst 14-game run in AFC West play — 1-13 — but it will also give Denver its first-ever 8-game losing streak in AFC West games.

The Broncos lost seven AFC West games in succession during a skid that spanned the 1982 and 1983 seasons. They snapped it with a 14-6 win over the then-San Diego Chargers on Oct. 23, 1983.

Now, the Broncos need an upset to avoid a skid in AFC West games that will stand alone in team history — for all the wrong reasons.

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48

That’s 48 percent, as in the Broncos would like to run on at least 48 percent of their snaps to have the best chance of winning. Of course, doing so requires keeping the game close enough to maintain patience with establishing the ground game.

But when opponents of the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs run at least 48.0 percent of the time, they are 12-7. When they don’t reach that percentage, they are 7-60.

This also has an impact on possession and pace of play, which matters on multiple levels. To wit …

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25

As in minutes of possession. In Mahomes’ starts, when the Chiefs possess the football for fewer than 25 minutes, they are 2-8. That compares with 26-7 when they possess the football for between 25 minutes and 29 minutes, 59 seconds, 16-3 when they have the ball for at least 30 minutes but fewer than 33, and 23-1 when they possess the football for at least 33 minutes.

This is why playing the tempo game is crucial. Lengthy drives are essential. Even 8- to 10-play possessions without a score can help the Broncos.

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AND ONE MORE …

1/3

As in one-third of third downs. Denver is one of four teams this season to convert fewer than one-third of its third downs this season. Further, Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett has repeatedly cited third downs as a particular problem. Denver ranks 30th in third-down conversion percentage, checking in at 27.4 percent.

Third downs are key to extending drives … which, as noted, is crucial to limiting Mahomes’ chances. Teams that don’t convert at least one-third of their third downs are just 2-26 against the Mahomes-led Chiefs. But get to 50 percent, and you turn a remote chance into a coin flip; teams to reach that mark are 6-6 against the Chiefs in Mahomes’ starts.

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