Per a report, there’s now a 50/50 chance the Rockies trade Nolan Arenado
Jan 2, 2020, 3:34 PM | Updated: 3:37 pm
The rumor mill surrounding Nolan Arenado keeps grinding along. It started during MLB’s Winter Meetings, where national writers began rolling out stories about individual teams being interested in the Rockies third baseman. And it’s continued in the weeks since, with a new potential suitor seemingly arising every week.
It’s all caused Rockies fans to worry, as they thought the club had secured the services of the five-time All-Star for years to come when he inked a seven-year, $234 million contract extension last spring. Now, baseball fans in Colorado have even more reasons to chew their fingernails to a nub in the coming weeks.
According to Jon Morosi of MLB.com, there is now a 50/50 chance that the Rockies will trade Arenado before the start of the season. What once seemed like a long shot is now a flip-of-a-coin proposition.
Per Morosi, there are multiple suitors for the third baseman, which isn’t a surprise. But the Braves, Cubs, Nationals and Rangers are the favorites, as Colorado is leery of trading Arenado to the Dodgers. Despite Los Angeles being the seven-time Gold Glove winner’s favorite team, the Rockies don’t want to send their biggest star to a team within the National League West.
Why do those teams make sense? Well, their contenders, so they could use Arenado’s services to get over the hump. But most importantly to the Rockies, they have young prospects that would be a good fit in Colorado.
“In order to part with Arenado, the Rockies likely need to obtain a controllable first baseman or centerfielder,” Morosi wrote, suggesting that the Rockies want to get younger at those positions, with a player who has a manageable contract situation. “On paper, Atlanta is perhaps the best fit for an Arenado trade. The Braves have enough pitching to send a young starter to Colorado, and their top position-player prospects – outfielders Cristian Pache (ranked No. 1) and Drew Waters (No. 2) and corner infielder Austin Riley – line up with the Rockies’ areas of need.”
That all sounds pretty ominous. But there were some nuggets of information for Rockies fans to cling to in hopes that a trade won’t happen.
“Nationals centerfielder Victor Robles is an ideal fit, but it does not appear the defending World Series champs are willing to move him in a deal for Arenado or (Kris) Bryant,” Morosi added. “One source said the Braves don’t plan to move aggressively on an Arenado trade unless free agent Josh Donaldson signs elsewhere.”
That doesn’t eliminate those two options, but it does show that they aren’t willing to make the deal no matter the circumstances. In addition, Morosi points out that the Cubs would only be interested if they’re able to trade Bryant for young pitching.
And then, there’s the matter of Arenado’s contract. Not only would a team have to be willing to take on his average salary of $33.4 million per season, they’d also have to contend with the opt-out clause that allows him to become a free agent after the 2021 season if he chooses. That means a team would be giving up a ton of young players with no guarantee that Arenado will be on their roster in 2022 and beyond.
All in all, it wasn’t a positive day for Rockies fans, but it also wasn’t a disaster. The team is a long way from making a deal for Nolan Arenado.
A 50/50 chance? That means Morosi can claim he’s right if it does happens, as well as if it doesn’t. Pretty brilliant strategy.
