Analytics say Rockies have an astronomically low chance of making playoffs
Mar 29, 2023, 5:51 PM
Do you want to know something Buster Olney, Paul Hembekides, Jeremy Willis, Jeff Passan, Michael Kay, Eric Karabell, Bradford Doolittle, Tim Kurkjian, Jesse Rogers, Kiley McDaniel, Joe DeMartino, Joon Lee, Alden Gonzalez, Jacob Nitzberg, Tim Keown, Enrique Rojas, Phil Orlins, Jessica Mendoza, Brendan DeAngelis, Liz Finny, Doug Glanville, Rachel Ullrich, Dan Mullen, Karl Ravech, Matt Marrone, Tristan Cockcroft, Gregg Colli, David Schoenfield, R.J. Anderson, Mike Axisa, Kate Feldman, Dayn Perry, Stephen Pianovich and Matt Snyder have in common?
All 34 of these MLB experts working for ESPN or CBS predicted the Colorado Rockies would miss the playoffs in 2023. Yeah, it’s true, and the math backs them up. The probabilities actually say if you packed Coors Field to the brim at 50,000 folks, only 150 would have the Rockies in the playoffs, so it’s not surprising 34 people with knowledge of the game picked against the purple pinstripes.
No, really. In 20,000 simulations Fangraphs ran of the 2023 baseball season the Rockies only ended their four-year playoff drought in 60 of them.
Or, to put this all in layman’s terms, the Rockies have a 0.3% chance to make the postseason in 2023.
Oddsmakers have set the line for Rockies wins between 64.5 and 66 wins. Fangraphs projects Colorado to go 67-95 this season, which would be one win worse than last year’s 68-94. The worst team the Rockies have ever fielded finished at 64-98.
So the prognosticators have the Rockies this year somewhere between their worst season ever or just slightly better than 2022 poor play.
Only the Washington Nationals and Oakland A’s have lower win totals set by oddsmakers. Fangraphs the Rockies tied for the lowest playoff odds in MLB, the Nats also came in at 0.3%.
The Rockies could get more from Kris Bryant than they did last year, he missed most of his first season in Colorado with injuries. Injuries are already impacting the Rockies with several key players sidelined on Opening Day. Colorado also lost a few pieces in free agency while only really adding Jurickson Profar only days ago.
Colorado is likely headed for their 22nd losing season in what will be their 31st year of playing ball. Only nine times have the Rockies finished above .500 and even at that only four times have they even won just 84 of 162 games, which accounts for four of the team’s five ever postseason trips.
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