What the NBA’s plan for resuming the season means for the Nuggets

The return date for the NBA had been rumored for more than a week, as the league eyed a resumption of play on July 31. Now, the details of what will unfold has been revealed.

According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the league will vote on Thursday to ratify a proposal that includes the following provisions:

So the NBA's inviting 22 teams to Orlando: 13 Western Conference, 9 Eastern Conference. Eight-regular season games per team. Play-in for the 8th seeds. July 31-October 12. Vote tomorrow to ratify.
The NBA's back.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 3, 2020

Essentially, the NBA is inviting any team that is currently within six games of the playoffs to participate in an abbreviated resumption of the regular season. At the conclusion of the eight-game slate, teams will be seeded from Nos. 1 to 8 in each conference. If the No. 9 team is within four games of the No. 8 team, they’ll have a chance to qualify via a play-in format.

So what does this all mean for the Nuggets? For starters, Denver has officially qualified for the postseason for the second-straight year.

When the NBA season was suspended on March 11, the Nuggets were 43-22. That’s 9.0 games ahead of the Grizzlies, the team that is currently in eighth place in the Western Conference. Since Denver can’t fall farther than the No. 7 seed during the eight-game regular season resumption, they’ll make the playoffs.

Where they’ll be seeded is definitely in doubt, however. The Nuggets held the No. 3 spot in the West when the COVID-19 pandemic caused the league to go on hiatus. But they’ll have to play well to retain that spot.

Here are the current standings in the Western Conference:

1. Lakers | 49-18 | —
2. Clippers | 44-20 | 5.5
3. Nuggets | 43-22 | 7.0
4. Jazz | 41-23 | 8.5
5. Thunder | 40-24 | 9.5
6. Rockets | 40-24 | 9.5
7. Mavericks | 40-27 | 11.0
8. Grizzlies | 32-33 | 18.0

Theoretically, Denver could still attain the top seed in the conference. But making up 5.5 games on the Lakers with just eight regular season games remaining isn’t very likely.

Rather, the Nuggets will wind up somewhere between the No. 2 seed and the No. 7 spot. They’re only 1.5 games behind the Clippers for the second seed, but also only 4.0 games ahead of the Mavericks, who are currently the seventh seed.

Given that all of the regular season and playoff games will be played in Orlando on a neutral site, seeding isn’t important due to home-court advantage. Instead, it’s all about match-ups, in the first round and beyond.

Currently, the Nuggets would face the Rockets in the first round. During the first 65 games of the 2019-20 season, Denver played Houston four times, with each team winning twice on their home floor. Last year, however, the Nuggets lost all four times they played the Rockets. The run-and-gun style of Houston isn’t a good match-up.

Finishing with the second, third, sixth or seventh seed, however, will allow Denver to avoid the likely top-seeded Lakers until the Western Conference Finals. That would be big, as avoiding LeBron James and Anthony Davis as long as possible would increase the Nuggets chances of advancing.

How will it all play out? That answer will start to become clear on July 31 when the NBA resumes play in Orlando.

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