Numbers show Courtland Sutton shouldn’t get a new deal from Broncos

Courtland Sutton isn’t in violation of anything by not taking part in the opening of offseason conditioning and strength-training workouts at Centura Health Training Center. Only if he doesn’t take part in June’s mandatory minicamp would he become a “holdout.”

But his absence in search of a new contract is curious.

Sutton currently ranks in a tie for 21st with Seattle’s Tyler Lockett in average per-year contract value, as he is halfway into a four-year, $60-million contract that averages $15 million per season. His cap figure for 2024 is 17th among wide receivers — one year after he had a cap figure of nearly $18.3 million that was fourth at his position.

A look at highlights would make you think that the 2024 figure is an underpay. Indeed, Courtland Sutton was a master of the spectacular when it came to receptions last year. He had three of the top 10 catches in the league last season, according to those who compiled a video for the NFL’s social-media accounts. And his 10 touchdown catches were tied for fourth-most in the NFL.

The 10 best catches of the 2023 season. Agree with No. 1? pic.twitter.com/3LfY3UDAub

— NFL (@NFL) February 21, 2024

If you consider only touchdown catches, Sutton deserves to be one of the highest-paid players in the league.

But there’s the rest of the field. And the consistency of production. Sutton’s 2023 touchdown tally matched his combined total for the previous four seasons — in which he played 49 games. The 10-touchdown season appears most likely to be an outlier than an indication of what is to come … just as his single 1,000-yard season of 2019 remains an outlier.

And the body of work since he signed his contract shows that — at best — he has been, at best, equal to where the contract sits now, ranking 21st in per-year value. It’s not one that calls for a raise. It’s fair compensation for the work.

WHAT SUTTON HAS DONE DURING THE CONTRACT

Courtland Sutton signed his four-year deal midway through the 2021 season. It kicked in for the 2022 campaign, coinciding with Russell Wilson’s arrival.

So, let’s look at where Sutton ranks in some metrics over the last two seasons among 97 wide receivers with at least 80 targets in that span.

SUCCESS RATE

• 2022-23 figure: 50.3 percent
• 2022-23 rank: 58th of 97 wide receivers

(Per Pro-Football-Reference, this is the percentage of receptions that are a “success” — e.g. accumulating 40 percent of the needed yardage for a first down on first down, 60 percent on second down and 100 percent on third or fourth down.)

AVERAGE DEPTH OF TARGET

• 2022-23 figure: 12.1 yards
• 2022-23 rank: T-25th of 97 wide receivers

TOUCHDOWN CATCHES

• 2022-23 figure: 12
• 2022-23 rank: T-18th of 97 wide receivers

YARDAGE PER RECEPTION

• 2022-23 figure: 13.0
• 2022-23 rank: T-44th of 97 wide receivers

YARDAGE BEFORE CONTACT PER CATCH

• 2022-23 figure: 10.5 yards
• 2022-23 rank: 14th of 97 wide receivers

YARDAGE AFTER CONTACT PER CATCH

• 2022-23 figure: 2.50 yards
• 2022-23 rank: 93rd of 97 wide receivers

These last two metrics make sense; Sutton has always been proficient at in-traffic jump balls downfield.

FORCED-BROKEN TACKLE RATE

• 2022-23 figure: 1 broken tackle forced every 123 receptions
• 2022-23 rank: 94th of 97 wide receivers

This is key and connected to the yardage-after-contact figure. It also reveals a key difference between pre-injury and post-injury Sutton. He forced 19 broken tackles prior to his 2020 ACL injury — one every 6.16 receptions. Since then, he has just three broken tackles forced, per SportRadar — one every 90.5 catches since 2021. In 2023, he didn’t force a single broken tackle.

DROP PERCENTAGE

• 2022-23 figure: 10.87 percent
• 2022-23 rank: 82nd of 97 wide receivers

Sutton had one drop every 9.2 catchable passes, In that same span, Jerry Jeudy had one drop every 18.3 catchable passes, ranking 31st among the 97 wide-receiver sample size.

CONCLUSION

Sutton hasn’t displayed elite production, top-10 production in any metric over the last two seasons. And his lack of yardage after the reception raises concerns about his fit in a Sean Payton offense. Giving Sutton the benefit of the doubt for his touchdown production last year, the across-the-board work still doesn’t reflect a receiver who merits a raise from his current deal.

SO, WHAT ABOUT THE QB IMPACT ON COURTLAND SUTTON?

It’s worth exploring, because wide receiver is a dependent position. But not dependent to the point where a true WR1 isn’t capable of consistent 1,000-yard seasons.

Not only has Courtland Sutton failed to achieve this widely-accepted baseline, but he trails a slew of other receivers who have done so with

The example I like to use is that of D.J. Moore, who came into the NFL at the same time as Sutton, via the 2018 draft. Like Sutton, Moore has played with a plethora of quarterbacks — eight over six years after his 2023 trade to Chicago. The most accomplished of these was Cam Newton, but the 2015 MVP’s salad days were well beyond him by the time he connected with Moore in 2018.

Despite working with a group of quarterbacks that included names such as Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, Tyson Bagent and P.J. Walker, among others, Moore has four seasons of at least 1,100 yards receiving to his name.

What’s more, 28 different pass catchers had 1,000-yard seasons last year and a slew of them had quarterback situations that were arguably less than the one the Broncos had with Sutton. Carolina’s Adam Thielen hit the mark with Bryce Young throwing him passes. Washington’s Terry McLaurin got there with Sam Howell. In fact, three of the NFL’s four worst passing offenses produced a 1,000-yard receiver.

And somehow, despite Zach Wilson throwing most of the New York Jets’ passes in the last two seasons, Garrett Wilson has back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns.

Sure, Courtland Sutton may want a new deal. And he is perfectly within his rights to ask for one.

But his production shows that his current deal is fair. The highlights are dazzling, but the overall body of work reveals a deeper truth, which should lead the request to elicit a polite, professional “No.”

If a new deal is important to Sutton, they should give him permission to seek it out via the trade market.

But for the rebuilding Broncos, a new contract for a receiver doesn’t make sense. They would be better served by leaning into the development of Marvin Mims Jr. and Brandon Johnson, leaning on recently-signed Josh Reynolds and then adding to the group — perhaps with Virginia’s Malik Washington in Round 4 — than adding cash to Sutton’s wallet.