Breaking down the top-10 QB prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft

The 2024 NFL Draft will be here before you know it. This is a good draft class at multiple positions, and teams will be shuffling around to find the best fit for them on both sides of the ball.

My position previews are always fun to write. The scouting is over, and I’ve graded over 400 players in this draft class. Now, it’s time to give you a taste of what I’ve seen on film.

Here are some of the quarterbacks from this draft you need to know.

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Super Six

This is a jam-packed class at the quarterback position. I think four quarterbacks could go off the board in the top-10 of the draft – perhaps even in the top-5 picks. There might be a total of six quarterbacks who go on the first day, although maybe one or two make it to the second round. No matter how you slice it, this is a great quarterback class.

I don’t follow the herd, so when I have Jayden Daniels (LSU) as my top quarterback, I don’t think that’s outlandish. Daniels enters this league with Lamar Jackson MVP-caliber ability. His game is that of a modern quarterback, and he’s much more advanced as a passer than people think. He had 90 explosive plays last year for LSU, 12 more than Joe Burrow did in his final season with the Bayou Bengals (and Burrow played in two more games). Daniels can run like the wind, he’s got a strong arm, and he’s a natural and charismatic leader. I am concerned about his skinny lower body, and Daniels runs like he’s Cam Newton or Josh Allen – much larger quarterbacks who could take the NFL beating. Daniels has a ton of talent, but he plays with little regard for his body – something that could get him in trouble at the pro level.

Caleb Williams (USC) is a generational talent. The Chicago Bears are going to select him with the no.1 overall pick, and that’s what could hurt him the most. Williams did not have a great final season at USC, and some use that as a knock on his game. Some also use the fact that he likes things outside of football and has a flamboyant personality. I say the Bears, and Williams’ ‘branding team’ are a larger concern for me than his pink man-purse. Williams can run, he makes full field reads as a passer, and he is calm under pressure. The Bears have never developed a quarterback in their modern history (let’s say over the last 50 years…even though it’s been longer than that) so count me skeptical on how much Williams makes an impact for them. He’s supremely talented, like most college quarterbacks aren’t, but it might take a second team before he truly reaches his potential.

There are varying opinions on Drake Maye (North Carolina). I’ve had scouts tell me that we in the media are higher on Maye than they are. That being said, Maye can still be a quality starter in this league. There are a few things he needs to work on though. The physical stuff with Maye is easy to see; the big arm and rushing ability. Maye needs to work on being a better game manager. Too many times, especially near pay dirt, Maye will get wild with the football. I don’t mind a gunslinger mentality, but a quarterback must pick and choose when he needs to go into that mode. Maye doesn’t have that knack just yet, but I do like his propensity to be bold.

He doesn’t fit everywhere, but Bo Nix (Oregon) has been considered a first-round passer for the last couple of years. Nix is a timing and rhythm passer, and that’s why he fits in with Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos. Nix wasn’t great at Auburn, but a transfer to Oregon led to him playing good football. He’s a smart player, with scouts throwing around the term ‘supercomputer’ when it comes to Nix and his football intelligence. Nix threw 150 micropasses last year for the Ducks (passes at or behind the line of scrimmage). This leads some to wrongly assume that he can only throw screen passes. Nothing could be further from the truth. When under duress, Nix had the best YPA (yards per attempt) of any quarterback in this class (8.9 yards). Compare that to the 3.9 YPA under duress of Williams, and you can see how Nix attacks when a team blitzes him.

I like J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) as a fit with the Broncos. Like Nix, McCarthy doesn’t fit everywhere but he does fit here. I wouldn’t mind if the Broncos moved up in the draft to secure the services of McCarthy. He plays with a ton of moxie, leadership, toughness, and heart. Yes, he doesn’t have a rocket arm – but he doesn’t need one. McCarthy uses his mind to stay ahead of the defense, and he does a fine job of pre-snap reads. He can run, throw on the run, and McCarthy is a timing-based quarterback. I like the way he stays calm when chaos is swirling around him. Plus, he was coached hard in college by Jim Harbaugh, so he’d be able to handle Payton’s coaching style.

Back in Janauary Michael Penix Jr looked like a top-10 pick. Then, Washington got beat up by Michigan in the National Championship Game and Penix looked bad. I’m not going to have one game completely destroy a player’s grade, but it wasn’t a great look in his finale with the Huskies. When at Indiana, Penix could not stay healthy with two shoulder injuries (one to each shoulder) and two knee injuries (on the same knee) that caused him to miss a ton of time. The bill of health is the most important thing when it comes to Penix. Can you trust him to stay healthy? As a passer, I could easily make the argument that Penix is the best natural passer in this class. He can absolutely sling the rock. Now, it comes out with an ugly left-handed delivery, but Penix knows where to put the ball and he’s got control and pass placement when throwing downfield.

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Mid-Round Value

This is the year to take a quarterback in the first round. If you wait, then a couple of players spring to mind as value plays. These aren’t plug-and-play starters but rather guys who are worth a shot. Bring them into your building and see how they develop.

Michael Pratt (Tulane) could eventually be a good starter in the NFL. For now, I only like him as a developmental quarterback who should go off the board in the middle rounds. He doesn’t have elite physical traits, but Pratt is a smart player who understands what a defense is trying to throw at him. Pratt is a fit for Payton, and the Broncos do like him. He certainly is a rhythm passer who can throw with touch at all three levels of the field. Health is a concern for Pratt as he missed time each of his four seasons starting at Tulane with various injuries (concussion, head fracture, shoulder, heel, knee injury).

I used to be intrigued by Spencer Rattler (South Carolina) when he came out of high school. He was supposed to be a star at Oklahoma, but he was beaten out by Williams and transferred to South Carolina. With the Gamecocks, Rattler struggled mightily early on, but he did improve as his college career progressed. Now, improvement was there but he still looked like a below-average option when considering his pro prospects. Firstly, Rattler is careless with the football – whether it’s interceptions or fumbles – he does not take care of the ball. Secondly, Rattler had too many games where he made bad decisions at the wrong time. I know some consider him a ‘sleeper’ but I’m more skeptical of his pro prospects. I like his mind for the game, and perhaps as a backup he could one day get a chance to start in the NFL.

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Late-Round Gems

I’m a fan of taking a quarterback every year. Go get your guy, and keep taking swings until you find him. Once you do, keep adding late-round quarterbacks as lottery tickets. This year, there’s only two who I can think fits that bill.

Joe Milton (Tennessee) has a cannon for an arm. His teammates called him “Bazooka Joe” although he doesn’t like that nickname. He’s been able to throw 85 yards downfield since he was in ninth grade, and Milton can make ‘wow’ throws others have no shot making. Now, he can throw it a country mile, but placement is a big problem. I did see him slow his motion to ‘aim’ passes during Combine drills, but his motion looked unnatural. Like many rocket-armed quarterbacks, Milton needs to learn to throw with touch to improve his accuracy. He’s a smart player, learning systems at Michigan and Tennessee, so that should make him a coaches’ favorite.

Devin Leary (Kentucky) can flat out sling the rock. Like Penix, he passes the ball so naturally and it looks great when it leaves his hands. Like Milton, Leary has little control on where he puts passes. Leary needs to improve his accuracy as a passer, and he’ll need time on a practice squad to do that. Injuries are a concern for him as well because he missed time with various injuries (mainly before he got to Kentucky when he was the starter for NC State). Since he has ‘arm arrogance’ you’ll see Leary try to make passes into a crowd. That’s bold in college football, but in the pros that will get him picked off. Overall, I take a chance on that arm as a ‘lottery ticket’ pick late in the draft or as a priority free agent after the draft.

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