The Broncos could be in a muddled mess at 10-7

For the Broncos, the road to 3-0 and a fighting chance at a playoff spot starts with a win Sunday night over New England.

And historically, this is the type of game in which the Broncos fare well.

16-2

This is the Broncos’ record when facing a team that will finish with no better than a .400 winning percentage at home in the 15th regular-season game or later.

Denver has won six-straight games in this scenario and 10 of its last 11. The only times the Broncos have lost in this scenario were on Jan. 3, 2010 (a 44-24 loss to 4-12 Kansas City) and Dec. 26, 1993 (a 17-10 defeat to 5-11 Tampa Bay).

At 3-11, the Patriots can do no better than finish with a .353 winning percentage.

10

Number of teams that could finish exactly 10-7.

And yes, this is possible. It requires Miami losing out, Buffalo losing one of its next two games before beating Miami in Week 18, Pittsburgh winning its final two games, Cincinnati winning its final two games — including the season finale over Cleveland, which would need to also lose to Houston while beating the Jets in Week 17 — the Jaguars winning two of their next three, the Colts and Texans both winning two of their final three games and Kansas City losing two of its last three games.

And then, the Broncos must win out.

A 10-way tiebreaker at 10-7 would be complete chaos. (By the way, in this scenario, Kansas City would still win the AFC West on a tiebreaker.)

5

Number of potential two-way tiebreakers the Broncos will win if they finish with a 10-7 record.

Denver would take tiebreakers with the following teams at that mark:

• Buffalo (head-to-head result)
• Cincinnati (head-to-head result)
• Cleveland (head-to-head result)
• Jacksonville (on conference record or common opponents, depending on how Jaguars would get to 10-7)
• Pittsburgh (common opponents)

The result of a tiebreaker with Indianapolis at 10-7 is up in the air. If the Colts reach that mark with a loss at Atlanta on Sunday and wins over Las Vegas and Houston, the Colts would win on the conference-record tiebreaker. But if the Colts reach 10-7 with a win over Atlanta and a loss to either the Raiders or Texans, the Broncos are projected to advance on a strength-of-victory tiebreaker (the teams defeated by the Broncos have a collective .500 win rate; for the Colts, it’s .434).

The Broncos would lose tiebreakers to Houston and Miami on head-to-head results.

So, why not dive into the three- and four-way tiebreakers?

For starters, it’s murky.

But first of all, know this: The Broncos have a bit of an advantage being alone — assuming Kansas City wins one more game — in the pursuit of a wild-card spot with a 10-7 record. That’s because in any wild-card tiebreaker, division ties are broken first.

So, for example, if the Texans finish 11-6 and the Colts and Jaguars both end up at 10-7, the wild-card system breaks the Colts-Jaguars tie first before going to a potential tie with the Broncos. In this exact scenario — which would involve Houston winning out, including a Week 18 win over the Colts — the Jaguars would advance to a tiebreaker with the Broncos, which the Broncos would win.

But what if there are other teams involved? Because the chances of a two-way tiebreaker are remote.

Take a tiebreaker among the Broncos, Jaguars and Steelers. They could all remain deadlocked on conference record. But they don’t have enough common games to warrant using that tiebreaker (teams must have four common-opponent games each to trigger it). Thus, the next tiebreaker is strength of victory, which Pittsburgh currently leads.

BUT …

If the Jaguars reach 10-7 by defeating the Buccaneers and Panthers and losing to the Titans, then the Broncos would win the tiebreaker. This is because Jacksonville would be eliminated on conference record, which would send the process between Denver and Pittsburgh back to step one,

A Broncos-Steelers-Texans tiebreaker would go to Houston, since the Texans defeated both Denver and Pittsburgh. But a Broncos-Browns-Bills tiebreaker would go to Denver, because the Broncos vanquished Cleveland and Buffalo.

More clarity will come after Sunday’s play.