Who should Broncos fans root for in Week 16?

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Who should Broncos fans root for in Week 16?

First things first: Let’s only consider the Broncos’ chances if they win all three games. Because even a single defeat drops their chances from 25 percent heading into Saturday down to single digits.

It starts there.

“It’s a three-game season,” center Lloyd Cushenberry said. “We’ve gotta come out 3-0, and start there.”

Win all three, and the Broncos’ playoff chances spike from 24 percent to 86 percent, according to the playoff simulator created by The New York Times.

So, here’s what the Broncos want from the weekend:

WHO SHOULD BRONCOS FANS ROOT FOR IN WEEK 16?

BENGALS AT STEELERS, 2:30 P.M. MST, DEC. 23

A Steelers win increases the Broncos’ chances by one percentage point independent of Denver’s results — and 2 percentage points if the Broncos win out. A Bengals win drops the Broncos’ chances by one percentage point either way. Denver wins potential 10-7 tiebreakers with Cincinnati.

DESIRED WINNER: STEELERS

BILLS AT CHARGERS, 6 P.M. MST, DEC. 23

This has a significant swing. A Chargers upset increases the Broncos’ chances by 6 percentage points before the Broncos play a game — and 7 percentage points if the Broncos go 3-0. A Bills win drops the Broncos’ chances by 1 percentage point either way.

The battered Chargers don’t stand much of a chance in this game, but if the unexpected happens, it would be massive.

DESIRED WINNER: CHARGERS

COLTS AT FALCONS, 11 A.M. MST, DEC. 24

This is a weird one. On the surface, you’d always want to see an AFC rival lose. But because of potential AFC South tiebreakers, a Colts win increases the Broncos’ playoff chances by one percentage point independent of Broncos results — and 2 percentage points if the Broncos win out. But that being said, this is one of those results that could break either way based on other circumstances.

In short, the Broncos win potential tiebreakers against Indianapolis. They lose them against Houston.

DESIRED WINNER: DEPENDS ON TOO MANY OTHER RESULTS TO CALL

BROWNS AT TEXANS, 11 A.M. MST, DEC. 24

Losses by the Texans help Denver … more than a loss by the Browns would. It’s all about tiebreakers. The only way a Texans win helps the Broncos is if Houston wins out and takes the AFC South. But that doesn’t happen without help.

The Broncos’ playoff chances — assuming they close 3-0 — drop by 4 percentage points with a Texans win, and increase by a single percentage point with a Cleveland win.

DESIRED WINNER: BROWNS

JAGUARS AT BUCCANEERS, 2:05 P.M. MST, DEC. 24

Before incorporating Broncos results into play, this game represents a 6-percentage-point swing — the Broncos’ chances increase by 3 percentage points with a Tampa Bay win, and drop by 3 percentage points if the Jaguars can arrest their recent skid.

DESIRED WINNER: BUCCANEERS

COWBOYS AT DOLPHINS, 2:25 P.M. MST, DEC. 24

The Broncos need Miami to win the AFC East. If Miami loses its final three games — and Buffalo wins two, including the season finale at Miami — the Bills would plunge Miami into a potential tiebreaker with the Broncos. And Miami wins that by virtue of its 70-20 Week 3 shellacking of Denver. Thus, the Broncos’ postseason chances rise with a Miami win.

DESIRED WINNER: DOLPHINS

FOR BRONCOS PLAYOFF CHANCES, JAGUARS-BUCS IS SIGNIFCIANT

There hasn’t been a great deal of talk about the Jacksonville Jaguars in the wild-card mix, and at the moment, they remain in first place in the AFC South race on a tiebreaker.

But a win by the Colts or Texans and a Jaguars loss at Tampa Bay plunges Jacksonville into the wild-card morass. The Bucs have the best record of any remaining Jaguars opponent; Jacksonville closes the season with a home game against 2-12 Carolina and a regular-season finale at Tennessee, which is currently 5-9.

If the Jaguars defeat Tennessee, they win every possible AFC South tiebreaker. Which is why a scenario that could help the Broncos is for the Colts or Texans to win out and the Jaguars to go 2-1 — with a loss at Tampa Bay.

That’s because in a tiebreaker with three or more teams for a wild-card spot, division ties are broken first. Thus, if the Jaguars, Texans or Colts and Broncos are all 10-7, Jacksonville would win the tiebreaker. Then they would advance into a tiebreaker with the Broncos.

In this specific instance, both the Broncos and Jaguars would be deadlocked on conference record: 7-5. Then, it goes to common opponents, which the Broncos would win by virtue of a 3-2 record against common foes — Kansas City, Houston, Buffalo and Cleveland — compared with Jacksonville’s 2-3 mark against those foes.

With the Colts, it’s a bit murkier. If Indianapolis finishes 10-7 — with one of the losses to the Raiders or Texans in Weeks 17 and 18 — then the tiebreaker goes down the line.

In this instance, the Colts and Broncos would be tied on common opponents at a 3-2 ledger. Thus, it would go to a strength-of-victory tiebreaker, which the Broncos win at this time, with a .500 mark there compared to the Colts’ .429. But Denver’s strength of victory will take a hit if they win out over the 3-11 Patriots, 5-9 Chargers and 6-8 Raiders — down to .450, based on the records as of Saturday morning.

The Broncos don’t want a tiebreaker with Houston. The Texans win that via their 22-17 head-to-head win over Denver on Dec. 3.

So, in the AFC South, a result that gives the Texans the AFC South title is EXACTLY what the Broncos now want. And a scenario in which the Texans are in a 10-7, second-place tiebreaker with either the Colts or Jaguars works, too.

But if the Texans are alone at 10-7 and in second place, it’s grim news for Denver.