The Broncos formula for beating the Dolphins in Week 3 isn’t easy
Sep 23, 2023, 6:17 AM
The Denver Broncos are up against the wall with an 0-2 record. Any chance they have at the postseason is already slim, but another loss might shut the door completely on that notion. Broncos HC Sean Payton said earlier this year that he would be pissed if the team didn’t make the playoffs. Well, Payton had better be ready to be upset because this season has not started the way anyone would’ve liked.
The team travels to Florida this week to take on the 2-0 Miami Dolphins. While the Broncos have made things look difficult at times this season, the Dolphins are making it look easy. Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel is running a true Shanahan offense, and that means the Broncos will have to be more disciplined than ever.
The Dolphins have one of the most dangerous offenses in the entire NFL. Any small mistake by the Broncos defense can mean a big play for the Dolphins. They seemingly can score at will, and I don’t believe the Broncos can go toe-to-toe with the Dolphins if this game turns into a track meet. On the flip side, the Dolphins feature a defense with former Broncos HC Vic Fangio running the show. With the way things ended for Fangio in Denver, I’m sure he’s got a few things saved up for this game with his bend-but-don’t-break defense.
How will the Broncos attack the Dolphins on both sides of the ball? Let’s take a look.
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When the Broncos Run the Ball
The team keeps talking about running the ball more, but we’ve yet to see that come to fruition on the football field. We’ve seen RB Javonte Williams look like his old self this season, but it’s clear the team doesn’t want to put it all on his shoulders (or legs) just yet. That means more opportunities for Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin, but that hasn’t been the case.
In two games, Williams has 25 carries for 96 yards with only four of those carries going for a first down. That workload is near what Williams should be getting in one contest if he was at full strength. Instead, we’re seeing the team use other backs – but not enough. Perine, a veteran back who could easily take on a starter’s workload, only has nine carries for 45 yards with three first-down conversions. Why hasn’t Perine gotten more work as a runner? It’s a perplexing question, and one the Broncos should answer if they want to win.
The only rushing touchdown this year has been scored by McLaughlin – on his only carry. The speedy rookie has dazzling ability, but the team has barely used him in two games. Against the Commanders, McLaughlin used his trademark speed to go untouched for a 5-yard touchdown. I thought that may be the start of more work – and more exciting production from McLaughlin. Instead, he didn’t touch the ball again.
TD Jaleel McLaughlin!
(yes really) pic.twitter.com/sPaZQbq1sL
— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) September 17, 2023
I believe the rushing attack is key for the Broncos if they have any chance of beating a high-powered Dolphins team. If they can run the ball effectively and have sustained drives, it will keep the Dolphins offense cold on the sidelines. The Broncos can wear down the Dolphins’ defense if they have a commitment to the run – and stick with it.
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When the Broncos Pass the Ball
Broncos QB Russell Wilson proved last week against the Commanders that he can still sling the rock down the field. In Week 1, Wilson was somewhat reserved as a passer and tried dinking-and-dunking his way through the day. Against the Commanders in Week 2, we got to see some of those famous ‘moon balls’ that Wilson loves to throw – and it was great! It didn’t lead to a win – although it almost did with a Hail Mary to WR Brandon Johnson that put the Broncos in position to tie the game with mere seconds remaining.
The Broncos may need Johnson and Wilson to connect more this week. Wilson has thrown five touchdown passes over two games, and Johnson leads the team with two of those grabs. On a team with Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, it’s interesting to see a guy like Johnson make plays on fewer opportunities. The connection is working, and I think Johnson has earned more playing time and more targets with his play. Perhaps that’s something that could happen when the team gets near the end zone against the Dolphins.
Jeudy missed Week 1, but he was able to play against the Commanders in Week 2. He was targeted five times in Week 2, catching three passes for 25 yards. I will give him a pass for the lackluster production because it was his first game back. In Week 3, Jeudy gets no such pass. This is exactly the type of game where the Broncos need Jeudy to show up in a big way. He needs to be dominant against the Dolphins. We’ve seen that briefly with Jeudy, but the consistency hasn’t been there. If the Broncos want to win, then Jeudy needs to play up to his potential.
With TE Greg Dulcich shut down on Injured Reserve, the team needs to use more of Sutton in the red zone. Sutton is one of their biggest targets, and he is supposed to be able to win ‘above the rim.’ That is something we have yet to see with Sutton this season, but I know the natural ability is still there for him to do that. Rookie WR Marvin Mims had only two catches in Week 2 – but those totaled 113 yards and one touchdown. Like McLaughlin, I thought we’d see more of Mims after his big plays. Instead, he wasn’t featured on offense as much as he should have been. That’s got to change against the Dolphins and moving forward if the team wants to win.
Russ finds Brandon Johnson to extend the @Broncos' lead! 🔥
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/7neKmEtHaN
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 17, 2023
The Broncos may be forced to go to the air more than they would like against the Dolphins. If we see Miami’s offense explode early, the Broncos will be in ‘catch up’ mode. That’s not great as the team isn’t built that way, but with Wilson slinging it to guys like Johnson and Jeudy they could do more damage through the air than people think.
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When the Dolphins Run the Ball
Speed is the name of the game with the Dolphins offense. It’s not just their superstar wide receivers, but it also includes RB Raheem Mostert. Against the New England Patriots in Week 2, Mostert had a monster performance with 121 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Mostert understands the nature of the Mike McDaniel system, and Broncos fans will remember it well because it’s almost a perfect blueprint of what Mike Shanahan used to do in Denver.
To complement Mostert, the Dolphins have veteran Salvon Ahmed. He is used as both a runner and receiver out of the backfield. His game is about (guess what?) speed and elusiveness. Last week against the Patriots, Ahmed suffered a groin injury which led to more opportunities for Mostert.
We haven’t seen much from rookie RB De’Von Achane yet because Mostert has been so good. Like Mostert, Achane’s game is all about speed and explosiveness. If Achane gets to touch the ball this week, he’s going to be amped up by the opportunity. Basically, the Broncos defense will not be able to take a breath when Mostert isn’t out there.
Raheem Mostert had himself a day on Sunday:
18 Carries
121 Rushing Yards
6..7 Yards Per Carry
2 TD ✌️Absolutely BALLED in primetime 🐬
— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) September 19, 2023
The Broncos were soft against the run last week against the Commanders. That was against a bruising back in Brian Robinson, and Mostert brings a different skill set to the table. The zone-blocking scheme wants to get you out of position so Mostert can cut against the grain and make your defense pay. The Broncos need to be very careful here, or else Mostert can gash them with multiple big plays.
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When the Dolphins Pass the Ball
We’ve heard all week that Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa gets rid of the ball quickly. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the game today when he’s healthy, and Tagovailoa brings a unique skill set to the football field. He’s a left-handed quarterback, so the keys on him will have to be different than every other passer in this league. Since the start of the 2022 season, the quarterback with the best passer rating in the league (105.1) is Tagovailoa. He’s a smart player with a ton of weapons to throw the ball to.
His best receiving weapon is WR Tyreek Hill. The Broncos know Hill well from his time with the Kansas City Chiefs, and you could easily make the argument that Hill is playing better football since the start of last season in South Beach. Hill has incredible speed – not just ‘every guy in the NFL is fast’ speed but truly elite speed that will be difficult to contend with. Hill is too much for one player to handle, so it will be interesting to see how much help Broncos CB Pat Surtain gets in this matchup.
Opposite Hill is 2021 first-round pick Jaylen Waddle. He was concussed against the Patriots in Week 2, but Waddle did practice on Friday as he makes his way through the league’s concussion protocol. The Broncos are going to be without starting S Justin Simmons, and this Dolphins’ offense puts a ton of pressure on the safeties. If Waddle is out there, the Broncos will more than have their hands full. If Waddle doesn’t play, then wide receivers like Braxton Berrios or second-year pro Erik Ezukanma will be in line to make big plays with their speed.
Tua Tagovailoa is coming for everything he’s owed this year. Still thinking about this throw yesterday to lead 4th Q comeback over Chargers: pic.twitter.com/cZOnTEdaXC
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) September 11, 2023
With or without Waddle, slowing down this passing game is going to be a challenge for a Broncos defense that isn’t playing well. Tagovailoa is number one in the league when it comes to passing attempts past the sticks (44), big-time throws (8), and touchdowns on such throws (4). That means the guys up front need to generate pressure on Tagovailoa, and they may have to do that with fewer blitzes. The effectiveness of the Broncos front four will determine if the Broncos can stay in this game against the Dolphins.
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