How can Russell Wilson revive his career — and what if he can’t?

You have to start any look at the Broncos’ quarterback position with their No. 1 QB wearing No. 3 — and a question.

Starter: Russell Wilson

Dip or decline?

When evaluating the future for Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson, this is the question regarding a 2022 season that was the worst in his career to date. Consistently in the top dozen starting quarterbacks and sometimes elite, Wilson sunk to the depths of the NFL’s sea of starting quarterbacks last year. He wasn’t at the bottom, but he could see it from his spot — even with a late-season upturn after Jerry Rosburg assumed the coaching reins on an interim basis.

The Broncos hired Sean Payton for many reasons. To rebuild the team’s culture. To restore luster to a club that in the past six years, had lost it. But also, it was to figure things out with Wilson. Succeed with Payton, and it becomes clear that last year’s performance was a perfect storm of a new environment and a coach and a philosophy that was a bad fit all around.

“Certainly, we watched last year to see what happened,” Broncos offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said during minicamp. “… You want to see what a player does well and maybe what he struggled with, but also you don’t want to make too many assumptions.”

But Lombardi did cite injuries as a factor in Wilson’s sub-par form.

“Injuries are always a big deal. As you look at what happened last year, a lot of it was injuries. So, it’s about staying healthy,” Lombardi said.

And if Wilson’s 2023 looks much like his 2022, then the onus lands on Wilson — and the question of whether to keep Wilson around beyond the start of the 2024 league year — which would make his 2025 salary guaranteed — will dominate much of the public discourse regarding the team.

Sean Payton, on Russell Wilson. He says Wilson is “doing well” and that today’s Broncos OTA was “a good day” for Wilson, with the emphasis being on third-down work. pic.twitter.com/fdDoXWh5v0

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) June 1, 2023

During OTAs and minicamp, Payton looked to test Wilson with situational work. One day, third downs became a point of emphasis.

“There’s a challenge in OTAs with third down,” Payton said June 1. “The challenge in third down is you have to contest every throw. Within the framework of OTAs, it’s hard to do that. They understand it. I’ll whistle them and just talk about the period. We can see if there’s a sack, we can see if the [defensive backs] are in position. Generally speaking, especially on those early yards, we’re contesting every throw. It’s a little bit less challenging when you’re in first and second down playing zone defense.”

And Payton’s final assessment?

“He’s doing well.”

Lombardi echoed that sentiment during minicamp.

“I don’t know what’s going to happen, but for June 14, we’re really happy with where he’s at,” he said. “There’s some muscle memory that we have to overcome. He’s used to doing things a certain way and we’re presenting a new way of doing things.

“He shows up every day ready to work. He’s the same guy every day — same attitude, and he’s really fun to work with. I think the answer for him is what the answer is for everyone. Work hard every day, get your fundamentals down and understand what you’re trying to accomplish. So far, it’s been really good.”

But if injuries do strike again … and remember, Wilson missed multiple games in each of the last two seasons and turns 35 this season — do the Broncos have enough in reserve?

Reserves: Jarrett Stidham, Jarrett Guarantano, Ben DiNucci

It didn’t take long for Payton to decide he wanted better than Brett Rypien in the No. 2 role. But it came as a mild surprise that he opted for Stidham, rather than bringing in a more seasoned veteran presence. Former Payton backups Teddy Bridgewater and Jameis Winston were on the market when the new league year began. Winston returned to New Orleans, while Bridgewater remains unsigned.

But Payton chose Stidham — and untapped upside was a factor in adding a QB with just two career starts.

“There were a couple of directions really with that position and there were a handful of No. 2’s that either I have worked with, or we felt comfortable with,” Payton said in March.

“In this case, I think he’s a No. 2 whose arrow is moving in a direction where we feel like he can become an NFL starter in our league.”

The only two starts of Stidham’s career to date came last January after Las Vegas inserted him in place of Derek Carr.

“I think he played well in the two starts he had this year,” Payton said. “If you study closely the San Francisco game, he’s smart at the line of scrimmage.”

Indeed, that performance was outstanding. But what happened next? Six days later, reality slapped him across the face in the form of a Chiefs pass rush that harassed the young quarterback. Kansas City sacked Stidham six times and forced two fumbles and an interception. Stidham didn’t finally find the end zone until the garbage-time moments of a 31-13 defeat.

Sean Payton, on Jarrett Stidham: “I think he’s young, but I think he’s someone that we had a good grade on coming out. We like the player. I think he played well in the 2 starts he had this year. If you study closely the San Francisco game, he’s smart at the line of scrimmage.…” pic.twitter.com/k45E6cAwKa

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) March 27, 2023

Stidham has a smaller sample size, but he faces a similar question as Wilson: Is the most recent work representative of who he is? Or can Payton and his staff tap into the positives and extract improvement?

“The evaluation was pretty crystal clear for all of us,” Payton said. “I think he’s someone that’s going to be great in the room. He’s smart. Quietly, that was an important sign for us.”

There is a battle in the room — but it’s for the No. 3 role, which may or may not be on the 53-player roster, depending on whether the Broncos opt to shuttle a quarterback to the practice squad.

Returning from a late-season hitch is Jarrett Guarantano, who found himself among the primary 53 last season. He did not see the field behind Wilson and Rypien. He has a lively arm and displayed plenty of zip during OTAs and minicamp.

Former XFL starter Ben DiNucci — who started one game for the Cowboys in 2020 — rounds out the room. DiNucci led the XFL in passing yardage, completions and touchdown passes … and also interceptions. Some of those came when he tried to squeeze the football into tight windows. He will bet on himself and his ability to make every throw. In the XFL, that paid off more often than ot.

During a rookie minicamp tryout, DiNucci threw an interception during the Broncos’ — right in front of Payton and CEO Greg Penner. But that didn’t prevent the team from signing him. Now, he has a chance to show how much the spring XFL hitch helped him.

But the questions about the reserves aren’t likely to dominate chatter — not as long as this camp, and, arguably, the entire season, are about Wilson’s ability to rebound and whether he can live up to the lofty expectations placed upon him when the Broncos made their blockbuster, franchise-altering trade 15 months ago.

***