ESPN iffy on Broncos chances of going worst-to-first
Aug 11, 2021, 7:29 PM
Since the 2015 season, six NFL teams have gone from worst-to-first in their respective divisions, offering a glimmer of hope to a Denver Broncos squad that’s been in the AFC West cellar twice during that time.
But the chances of seeing orange and blue atop the division in 2021, according to ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, aren’t exactly promising.
While ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Broncos a 12.9 percent chance of winning the AFC West in 2021 — better than all 2020 last-place teams except for the San Francisco 49ers (33.2 percent) — Barnwell still ranks Denver fifth out of eight.
The problem for the Broncos, Barnwell writes, is they play in a division with the Patrick Mahomes led Kansas City Chiefs, the team with the best odds (71.8 percent) in the NFL of winning its division.
“Speaking of things standing in the way of an unlikely title, any conversation about the Broncos winning the AFC West would seemingly start and end with Patrick Mahomes, who has gone 38-8 as a starter and led the Chiefs to three consecutive division titles,” Barnwell writes.
And even if something like a Mahomes injury tanks the Chiefs season, Denver would still have to contend with Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Among the things in the Broncos’ corner, however, are their schedule and turnover differential. Denver will go from the fourth-hardest set of opponents in 2020 to likely one of the easiest slates in 2021. And it’s unlikely the Broncos can do much worse than the minus-17 turnover differential they put up last season.
With Denver’s stout defense, a potential push for contention could come from an “unexpectedly impressive season from Drew Lock,” Barnwell writes, or a “steady campaign from Teddy Bridgewater.”
Broncos Country can also hang its hat on ESPN’s FPI giving Denver a 41.5 percent chance of making the postseason in 2021, but a return to the top of the AFC West looks out of reach for the orange and blue.
