Stubbornness from the Texans could help the Broncos land Watson

Free agency for the 2021 NFL season is just 16 days away, and the entire NFL world still revolves around Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. The 25-year-old rising star met with new head coach David Culley via Zoom for the first time last month, but the two sides reportedly remain dug in.

Watson is adamant that his days playing for Houston are behind him. And the Texans, led by the trio of: Cal McNair (owner), Nick Caserio (general manager) and Jack Easterby (vice president of football operations), have yet to openly discuss trading their franchise quarterback.

That narrative could soon begin to change.

John McClain, who has covered the Houston sports scene for more than four decades, wrote over the weekend that the Texans must begin fielding trade offers for Watson, even if they don’t want to.

NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported last week that the Texans’ ongoing saga between quarterback and front office could continue beyond the draft, bleed into training camp and potentially further.

From NFL Now: The #Texans don't plan on trading QB Deshaun Watson for a long, long time (and likely not at all). pic.twitter.com/iNOmLjm7BS

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) February 26, 2021

If you’re a Broncos fan, that’s the scenario you should cross your fingers for.

As it currently stands, there are four teams considered legitimate “players” in the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes: The New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos. The Broncos, currently slated to pick ninth overall in the first round this year, have the lowest draft pick of them all, thus their pre-draft trade leverage is lacking compared to the rest of the field.

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Rapoport, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler and others who have reported on the Texans’ current willingness to drag their feet are onto something, and the team doesn’t deal Watson before the draft.

Now each team’s potential offer changes drastically, and teams once thought to be frontrunners suddenly look like less attractive trade partners.

Here’s how a post-draft Deshaun Watson trade could impact each of the four teams in the hunt:

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Jets

The Jets, like only they can, watched a chance to draft Trevor Lawrence slip through their fingers last season after winning two of their final three games. Currently slated to pick No. 2 overall in the draft, they possess the most premium draft choice of all teams involved. Primarily because it comes with a guaranteed opportunity to select the second-best quarterback in the draft.

Thus, new head coach Robert Saleh has plenty of options at his disposal when it comes to the quarterback position. He can elect to stay the course with Sam Darnold, who the team drafted third overall in 2018 and will enter his fourth year in the league at just 24 years of age. He can sit tight and select any quarterback not named Trevor Lawrence, or he can advocate for that pick to be packaged together in an offer for Watson.

However, if a deal is not reached by draft day, The Jets would likely be forced to use the second-overall pick for themselves, effectively eliminating their most valuable trade asset.

If push came to shove, few could blame the Jets for selecting a quarterback at No. 2 and allowing Saleh to hand pick the quarterback who will likely make or break his tenure with the organization.

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Dolphins

Miami finds itself in a position very similar to the Jets. They own the third overall pick in this year’s draft, courtesy of the Texans, ironically enough. If general manager Chris Grier really wants to go after Watson, offering to give the Texans back the pick that was once theirs makes for a very compelling starting point.

While the Dolphins’ draft choice may be slightly less attractive than New York’s, they do have Tua Tagovailoa to offer up, who went 6-3 as a starter last season and shows plenty of upside. The Dolphins are clearly another team that should heavily favor a pre-draft deal for Watson, as they’re coming off of a 10-6 campaign and look to be a team on the rise.

The likelihood that the Dolphins will draft in the top three again in the near future seems rather slim, which means the draft picks they would offer beyond 2021 would be less valuable. If draft day comes without a deal for the Dolphins, it will likely force them to use the third-overall pick on a skill position player and further their commitment to Tagovailoa, who they selected 5th overall just last year.

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Panthers

Now things get interesting.

Carolina is currently picking eighth in this year’s draft, just one selection ahead of Denver. Rumors out of Charlotte continue to swirl, suggesting that owner David Tepper and head coach Matt Rhule are more than ready to move on from Teddy Bridgewater, who they signed to a three-year, $63-million contract almost exactly a year ago.

Many analysts have mocked the Panthers taking a quarterback in the first round, and the likelihood that North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, Alabama’s Mac Jones or others could be available at that time seems high.

However, if Tepper and Co. are willing to gamble, they may find themselves in a prime position to make a run at Watson after the draft.

He may no longer be seen as the future of the franchise by his front office, but Bridgewater’s presence gives the Panthers a phenomenal backup plan if they aren’t able to come to terms with Houston.

If pressed to do so, Carolina could draft a non-quarterback at No. 8 to help solidify their roster, and then still look to package together future picks and players in an attempt to land Watson. If all else failed, they could simply roll out Bridgewater for another year and reevaluate in 2022 after exercising the opt out in his contract that becomes available after the 2021 season.

Again, few could fault them for drafting a new signal caller when presented with the opportunity, but reward seldom comes without risk. One could easily argue the opportunity to secure a top-five quarterback before he turns 26 is reward enough to justify such a bold strategy.

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Broncos

Denver, by my estimation, benefits the most from a post-draft trade scenario for Watson. Like the Panthers, they have a quarterback in Drew Lock who could start in 2021 with little to no difficulty.

Unlike the Panthers, the Broncos have a quarterback who is still under his rookie contract, making him both younger and (more importantly) cheaper than Bridgewater. Per Spotrac, Bridgewater carries a cap hit of $22,953,125, which is nearly 12 times higher than Lock’s $1.9 million cap hit.

It would cost the Broncos next to nothing trot Lock back out as the starter in 2021, with the hope that he makes a significant leap and stays healthy for an entire season.

Lock’s presence provides Denver with an even more team-friendly failsafe if they wanted to try to play the long game with Houston.

They could use the ninth-overall pick to select one of the draft’s top defensive players in Patrick Surtain, Caleb Farley, Micah Parsons, etc. and still have a shot at landing their quarterback for the next decade-plus.

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Thus far, the 2021 offseason has proven to be quarterback revolution. Franchise staples such as Watson, Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz and Russell Wilson have gone to great lengths to take greater control over their destinies, and have shaken the very fabric of the NFL in the process.

All eyes have been, and likely will continue to be on Watson and the Texans until that matter is resolved.

As it currently stands, all signs point toward the Texas-sized staring contest to continue well into the coming months and potentially into the season itself as both sides appear to be digging their heels in.

What happens from here is a mystery, but one thing appears to be clear: A bullheaded approach by the Texans could give the Broncos an even better chance at striking quarterback gold.