Taking a QB in the second round isn’t a long-term plan
May 3, 2019, 3:36 PM
Since the 2019 NFL Draft ended, some in Broncos Country have been putting forth the notion that John Elway’s master plan all along was to select Drew Lock in the second round. According to the theory, Denver’s general manager knew that the Missouri quarterback would fall out of day one, so he hatched a plan to get him on day two.
It’s a decent idea, especially in hindsight, but that doesn’t mean it’s true. And one person in particular isn’t buying it – FM 104.3 The Fan’s D-Mac.
The co-host of “The Drive” (M-F | 3p-6p) has long suggested that any quarterback taken after the 19th overall pick in the draft should be viewed as a backup quarterback. If they turn into anything beyond that, it’s a bonus. So it’d be foolish for a team to think they can find their long-term answer at that point in the draft.
Recently, D-Mac took to Twitter to connect this belief to the Broncos selection of Lock. It opened a giant can of worms, to put it mildly.
Sigh. And yet again mike evans gets it wrong again. It’s about giving your team a chance to win. Never ever said success is defined by winning a super bowl. Success is defined by giving your team a chance to win. That’s it. But it’s ok. Broncos now have a back up QB. Beep beep
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) April 30, 2019
The suggestion that Lock is a backup QB led to some spirited debate. In Broncos Country, he’s seen as the “quarterback of the future,” with Joe Flacco simply serving as the bridge to what lies ahead. But D-Mac isn’t buying that idea, mainly because of his theory about non-first-round quarterbacks. But there’s also something fishy about the chain of events.
Ok cool. But if you think he’s only a one year guy and you loved drew lock (they saw lock play BEFORE they moved on from Keenum) why not simply keep Keenum and draft lock at 10. Why grab Flacco unless you think of him for MANY years? The history of 2nd round qbs is fascinating.
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
How fascinating? Well a long string of tweets provided the answer.
The vast majority of them were complete after thoughts. There have been 60 since 1965. About a 30% success rate. Ish. So less than half the success rate as those taken 1-19 in the first round. Why? Well most of them were selected when there was already an established starter.
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
So it appears they were ALL borderline first round guys. Brees and favre were both traded. Brees had injuries and Rivers was a virtual number one pick in the bizarre trade with the giants for Eli. Still rivers sat behind Brees for two years. When Brees was drafted it was a weird
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Year for sure as Doug Flutie was the starting QB! Tomlinson was the first round pick fifth overall. It was a bizarre QB class. Only one QB was selected in the first round. Michael Vick at number one overall!!!! Brees was the first pick of the second round! Well that feels
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Similar to this year. The chargers got really lucky. They got 2 hall of fame players with their first two picks! Wow! But why did they trade Brees? Well they went 30-28 with Brees and lost in brees’ only playoff appearance. The chargers had rivers and Brees signed as a FA w
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
The saints. The rest is history. Favre is another QB that got away but at a high cost. Green Bay Gave Up a first round pick for him! Wow! Now that’s impressive. And one of the worst misevaluations in NFL history. The falcons got Bob Whitfield a tackle who was a pro bowler but
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
So what?!?!? Favre came in as a back up but majokowski got hurt early and the rest was history. Esiason, Carr, dalton and Kaepernick all stayed with their teams. So let’s look at who the starters were before they played. We know flutie was older when Brees came in. Alex smith
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Was the QB of the Niners in 2011 and they were great! Well 2011 they were great. Smith was 19-31 leading up to 2011 so you can see why they may have wanted to move on. Lol but then they went 13-3 with smith!!! The Niners got lucky and unlucky. They SHOULDVE drafted a QB in the
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
First round BUT it was a weak class. The dodged the locker, Gabbert, ponder bullet. They took Aldon Smith with the ninth pick and could’ve easily had a Von miller type player but it went sideways while Von is Von. Andy Dalton went one pick before Kaep so did they get a bit
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Unlucky? I would say no. Both were great players and there was no way to see the anthem controversy. What you didn’t expect was the Alex smith superstar run. They thought smith was a bust and then he crushed it in 2011. Uh oh. Now what? Well smith was balling and got a
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Concussion. Jim Harbaugh put in kaep and he killed it for two games. Now smith is healthy. Harbaugh benches the nfc offensive player of the week in Smith. It was a HUGE controversy in San Fran BUT kaep played terrific and smith was shown the door. Smith was NOT a Harbaugh pick
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Dalton has an even more bizarre start as he was drafted in the second round because Carson Palmer was threatening to RETIRE and the bengals refused to trade him! SO bizarre. The bengals got absurdly lucky that Dalton was still around in the second round. And when he played he
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Did well! So good that the bengals agreed to trade Palmer Mid season to the raiders. Crazy lucky by the bengals. The bengals picked up AJ green in the first and got a starting QB in the second. Absurd luck! Although they could’ve had dalton in the first and Torrey smith in 2nd
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Finally – Boomer! The 1983 starter for the bengals was Ken Anderson who had a long and successful career with the Bengals including a super bowl appearance. He was 34 in 83 same as Flacco now. Boomer was the back up in 84 and played in just 4 games but went 3-1. The next year
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Boomer won the job outright and Anderson was his back up for two years until he retired. This is another example of the Bengals getting extremely lucky. There were ZERO qbs taken in the first round in 84! Lol. ZERO. The bengals took linebacker Ricky Hunley 7th overall! Lol.
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
It was insane that the bengals with a 35 year old QB drafting 7th overall didn’t take a first round QB. Insane!!!! But they still got the first QB off the board. No wonder they were quick to replace Anderson. Absurdly lucky twice in bengals land! Finally finally Carr. The 2013
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Raiders were a complete disaster. Dennis allen was horrible and they used Terrelle Pryor, Matt Flynn and Matt Mcgloin as wbs. Awful. They had the fifth overall pick and they chose – Khalil Mack! Lol. Sound familiar? A terrible team desperately in need for a QB takes a pass
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Rusher with the overall fifth pick! Wow! I’ve heard THAT story before or should I say the Broncos COPIED that story! Again the QB class was weak. Bortles went three and then in dropped to Manziel and Bridgewater. Looking back on it especially since the raiders traded Mack there
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Is no doubt that the raiders should’ve either taken Carr at five or Bridgewater or even Manziel. Again this is where the raiders actually got incredibly lucky with Carr and based on the Alex smith history of blossoming later they should hold on to Carr for dear life! So these
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Established QB with success and super bowl history who has injury issues and is likely to be done in three years replaced by a QB who should’ve gone in the first round. IF the Broncos want Lock to be successful. IF. THEN the best chance for success is to start playing him at some
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Point this year – probably due to injury – and once that happens don’t look back as Harbaugh didn’t when kaep replaced smith even when smith was healthy which is essentially what the Ravens did to Flacco this year. The key for all these successful second round qbs is they ALL
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Played in their first year and didn’t look back except for Favre who was absolutely a first round talent that the falcons couldn’t see. That was the biggest screw up and really smart by the Packers GM. I’m not pulling against Flacco BUT for the LONG term success of the broncos
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Not the short term outlook – Lock needs to see action this year and be the starter next year. Second round success stories range around 30%. The worst scenario is for Lock to linger because the longer he sits the more likely he is to become Brock.
— Darren McKee (@dmac1043) May 2, 2019
Whew. There’s a lot to digest there. But the bottom line is pretty simple…
Yes, some second-round quarterbacks turn into quality starters, players who give their team a chance to win. But it’s clearly the exception to the rule. More often than naught, teams that find a long-term QB solution on day two of the draft do so because of a lucky chain of events.
Did that happen with the Broncos and Lock? Well, that’s certainly what Broncos Country is hoping.
