Simulation projects Broncos to have No. 3 pick in 2025 NFL Draft

The Denver Broncos hopefully picked their quarterback of the future in the 2024 NFL Draft.

But could QB be a tempting option again in 2025?

Well, if ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is to believed, head coach Sean Payton and GM George Paton could have some tough decisions to make next spring.

The model went through 10,000 simulations of the upcoming season and projects the Broncos to land the No. 3 pick in next year’s draft. That would likely mean a record of 4-13 or 5-12 this year.

According to the computer, Denver has a 12.4 percent to chance to earn the No. 1 overall selection. That jumps to 50.9 percent to pick in the top-5 and a staggering 77.1 percent to be in the top-10.

The New England Patriots finished with best odds to land the top pick at 21.9 percent, while the Carolina Panthers were second with a 20.8 percent chance.

The games are played on the field, not with computers, but this is a significant sample size in terms of simulations. The Broncos have a tough schedule on paper, including playing three of their first four games on the road.

Rookie Bo Nix is going to take plenty of snaps, and there could certainly be some growing pains. Even though he was taken No. 12 overall, Nix was the sixth QB off the board last month. Payton likes him, but he’ll get thrown into the fire with a Denver roster that PFF ranks worst in the NFL.

And if it does indeed work out this way, Payton and Paton are going to have some hard choices to make. If Nix shows flashes, they might be tempted to take the best player on the board.

But if he doesn’t, another rookie could roll into town around this time next year with a high selection.

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