A look ahead: Broncos’ opener could set up fast start — and a streak’s end

First in a season-preview series

As “The Sound of Music” would sing, “Let’s start at the very beginning; a very good place to start …”

WEEK 1

• OPPONENT: Las Vegas Raiders
• DATE: Sept, 10, 2023
• VENUE: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
• TV: CBS

No team is happier to see Derek Carr leaving Las Vegas than the Broncos.

Carr is in Sean Payton’s old stomping grounds now, practicing his trade for the New Orleans Saints. In Week 1, we’ll learn whether he took the Raiders’ longest sustained run of success against the Broncos in nearly 30 years with him.

You must venture back that far to see the last time the Raiders won six consecutive games against the Broncos before now. That previous streak ended with Mike Shanahan’s arrival as head coach in 1995. The Broncos now hope that Sean Payton’s arrival and Carr’s departure has a similar effect.

The Raiders were 11-6 in Carr’s 17 starts against the Broncos — and that includes an 0-3 start in 2014 and 2015.

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IT’S BEEN ROUGH IN RECENT YEARS

Peyton Manning was still a Bronco when his team began Life Post-Peyton in the series.

When the Broncos faced the then-Oakland Raiders on Dec. 13, 2015, Manning watched, injured. Brock Osweiler had the controls that day as the Broncos continued making their push for the AFC’s top seed. Denver was 10-2 going into the game. But most relevant in that moment was the team’s 3-0 record with Brock Osweiler starting.

For a while, the Broncos dominated that day. But a massive 236-yard advantage (224 to minus-12) in total yardage led to just four field goals and a 12-0 halftime lead. The Osweiler-led offense failed to maximize its chances. It left a sliver of daylight and the door ajar.

And the Raiders burst through it. Las Vegas mounted one 80-yard touchdown march, scored on a safety and then converted a muffed punt recovered at the Denver 11-yard line into a game-winning touchdown. With Osweiler under seige from edge rusher Khalil Mack, the Raiders won, 15-12. The series hasn’t been the same since.

Denver carried an 8-game series winning streak into that contest. Since then, the Broncos are 4-11 against the silver and black. But all four of those wins came at home.

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TRENDS:

• The Broncos are 16-3 all-time in their first home game with a new head coach. This includes interim head coaches, with the Week 18 win over the Chargers last season under Jerry Rosburg adding to the tally.
• Raiders have won six-consecutive games in the series and 11 of the last 15.
• Denver is 19-3 in home openers since 2000.

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NOTES:

• The Raiders’ two wins last year with Josh McDaniels snapped a 6-game winning streak for the Broncos in games against clubs led by former head coaches. Prior to those games, the only ex-Broncos head coach to lead his team to a win over Denver was Lou Saban, whose Buffalo Bills defeated the Broncos 38-14 on Oct. 5, 1975.
• The game is expected to be Jimmy Garoppolo’s first start for the Raiders. Denver is 1-0 against Garoppolo-led teams, as the Broncos defeated the 49ers 11-10 with him at QB last season.
• Denver’s track record when opening the regular season at home is exemplary. Denver had won seven-straight Week 1 home games from 2012-18 before a 2020 Monday Night Football loss to the Tennessee Titans snapped that streak.

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WAY-TOO-EARLY PREDICTION:

Broncos 23, Raiders 17

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