Cross Sam Howell off the list of Broncos possible quarterbacks

The newest Denver Broncos quarterback will not be Sam Howell.

The erstwhile Washington starter — who led the Commanders to a 35-33 win over the Broncos in Week 2 — is on his way to Seattle after the Seahawks executed a draft-pick swap to acquire the third-year passer.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter first reported the trade and its terms.

Another QB trade: Commanders are sending last year’s starter Sam Howell to the Seahawks in a pick swap, per sources.

Trade:
🏈Seahawks receive Howell, a fourth-round pick (No. 102), a sixth (No. 179).

🏈Commanders receive a third (No. 78) and a fifth (No. 152). pic.twitter.com/jCEivnjg9D

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 14, 2024

Sam Howell would have made some sense for the Broncos, given his potential upside as a third-year quarterback who could also be a bridge to a draft pick next month.

However, the Broncos’ lack of early-round draft capital would have made a deal similar to the one executed by the Seahawks difficult.

THE VALUE OF THE SAM HOWELL TRADE

Per three different draft-pick value models that assess a point value to each choice, here’s how the deal shook out:

JIMMY JOHNSON MODEL

• To Seattle: 109.8 points
• To Washington: 230.6 points
• Difference: 120.8 points, equivalent of the No. 95 overall pick, late in Round 3

RICH HILL MODEL

• To Seattle: 42 points
• To Washington: 70 points
• Difference: 28 points, equivalent of the No. 111 pick, early in Round 4

FITZGERALD-SPIELBERGER MODEL

• To Seattle: 1,072 points
• To Washington: 1,246 points
• Difference: 174 points, which isn’t even the value of the last pick in the draft

So, with the Fitzgerald-Spielberger model as an outlier, Howell’s trade value was roughly equivalent to that of a late third-round or early fourth-round pick. Given the Broncos’ paucity of early choices — just two picks in the first 120 choices — Denver lacked the ammunition to complete with Seattle’s offer without including their third-round pick, at the No. 76 overall slot.

Furthermore, that value means Washington got more than it invested in Sam Howell. The Commanders took him with the first pick of the fifth round two years ago. They got back the equivalent of a pick that exceeds the value in two of the models.

And that’s another reminder of how it can pay to pick a quarterback — even one that doesn’t end up as your long-term starter.

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