Rox Bottom: Projections say Rockies will have MLB’s worst record
Feb 7, 2024, 12:47 PM
So you’re telling me there’s a chance? Fangraphs projects the Colorado Rockies to have an MLB-worst 0.1% chance at making the postseason in 2024.
The popular stats website is so low on the Rockies’ hopes because they expect Colorado to finish with the worst record in baseball at 63-99. The Rockies finished 2023 with their worst record ever of 59-103, making for the fifth-straight losing season. It’s widely expected Colorado will again fall under .500 in 2024 and struggle to stay out of last place in the NL West. While those two things have sadly become common in Colorado baseball history what’s not is the mark of worst team in baseball. The Rockies have never been the worst team in the sport, a mark Fangraphs projects the team to reach this season.
In fact, in the Fangraphs preseason projections that came out on Wednesday, they see a scenario in which reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. from the Braves, is worth more WAR than the entire Rockies lineup. If that sounds funky, it’s not—Acuña was worth 8.3 WAR last year to the Rockies entire lineup a league-worst 0.3 WAR. Acuña was worth more than the White Sox and A’s lineups as well. It was actually so bad for the Rockies last season that Acuña was worth more WAR than Colorado’s position players and pitchers combined, as the hurlers tacked on 5.9 WAR. The Braves are Fangraphs’ favorites with a 25% chance to win a title.
Based on those comparative stats and the win number increasing, the Fangraph projection may be a little less dire than it first seems. Though it’s all still quite bad.
It’s expected Nolan Jones will lead the Rockies in 2024 and be their best option for an All-Star choice. The soon-to-be sophomore is projected by many to take a small step back in contract and speed but keep up his power numbers. Ryan McMahon, Brendan Rodgers, Ezequiel Tovar are among the several expected to positively contribute in the lineup. While Ryan Feltner, Austin Gomber, Kyle Freeland, Cal Quantrill and Dakota Hudson make up a who’s who of rotation arms that most teams would push to the pen.
It’ll be rough at 20th and Blake in 2024, and help does not appear to be on the way anytime soon.