Can Broncos defense continue to bend — and not break?

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The Broncos defense bent, broke and shattered into a million pieces during the first five weeks of the season. So, to say that their bend-but-don’t-break style of the last three games is an improvement is an understatement along the lines of describing Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokić as a pretty decent passer.

A defense that accounted for 18 touchdowns yielded over three games earlier this season has allowed just three in its last three games. Further, it held the defending champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, to just one end-zone foray in two games over a 17-day span.

The Broncos defense is finally a unit worthy of its most decorated player. And that standout, cornerback Pat Surtain II, has bought in.

“They’ll make some plays in the field, but once we get in that red zone, our standard is to hold them to not a touchdown, hold them to three or no points,” Surtain said.

Pat Surtain II on Vance Joseph: “One thing about VJ is he’s always positive, no matter what goes on. He’s very confident in us and in this scheme. We just rally behind him, just hone in on the little things, and he’s just a great coach and a great players’ coach as well, too.“ pic.twitter.com/AxQUDSk85f

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) November 7, 2023

“So, that’s the standard, and we hold ourselves to the standard these past weeks. It’s a great thing that we have going.”

But is it sustainable?

RECENT TEAMS WITH SIMILAR RUNS OFFER CONCERN FOR BRONCOS DEFENSE

This run — a three-game stretch in which a team allows at least 60 first downs and 950 yards but only surrenders three touchdowns — is atypical.

In fact, this is the Broncos’ first such span in 30 years, and just the eighth for any NFL team in a single season since 2014.

Now, the last time this happened for the Broncos, it was a precursor of defensive woes to come. The 1993 Broncos had a three-game stretch from Weeks 2-5 (with an early-season bye tossed into the mix) in which they allowed a total of 45 points — with just three touchdowns — to the San Diego Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs and Indianapolis Colts.

But after that, the yardage translated to more points and touchdowns. A team that gave up 16.3 points per game allowed 20.1 points per game the rest of the season, which was the precursor to a total collapse the following campaign that claimed then-head coach Wade Phillips’ job.

So, for the other seven teams in the past 10 seasons who had three-game stretches like the Broncos, what happened next?

• 2023 Houston: After its three-game run — in which the team surrendered an average of 367 yards a game — the Texans held Carolina to 15 points and a single touchdown before Tampa Bay singed them for 37 points and four touchdowns seven days later. As for the longer-term trends, they are very much to be determined.
• 2022 Cincinnati: Their three-game stretch with this standard capped a five-game opener to the season in which the Bengals surrendered 18.8 points per game. They allowed 21.2 points per game the rest of the season, and in the five games immediately following their three-week, bend-but-don’t-break stretch, the Bengals yielded 25.2 points per contest.
• 2019 Washington: After its three-game run, the team allowed an average of 30.0 points per game for the rest of the season — over 20-percent higher than its 24.4-points-per-game pace to open the campaign.
• 2017 Tennessee: Tennessee’s three-game stretch of surrendering yards and first downs — but not points saw the Titans go 1-2 to nearly fall from the playoff race. They rebounded, made the postseason and won a wild-card game at Kansas City, advancing as far as the divisional round in spite of allowing 24.3 points per game, slightly above their 22.8-point average to that juncture.
• 2017 Buffalo: A 26-16 win over the Broncos in Week 3 was the middle third of the Bills’ bend-but-don’t-break stretch. The floodgates would soon open on Buffalo; they allowed 25.3 points per game for the rest of the season after opening the year allowing 13.5 points per game in Weeks 1-4. At one point, the Bills surrendered 101 points in a two-game span. But Buffalo had enough to eke into the postseason at 9-7 for its first playoff berth in 18 years.
• 2016 Cincinnati: The Bengals ended the season with their bend-but-don’t-break run, but it didn’t save their season; they limped home 6-9-1 to miss the playoffs for the first time in six years.
• 2016 Buffalo: After the Bills had a three-game bend-but-don’t-break run — winning all three contests — Rex Ryan’s defense would eventually break. A team that allowed 17.4 points per game in the first five weeks — including that three-week run — yielded 26.5 points an outing for the balance of the season while going 4-7.

SO, WHY MIGHT IT BE DIFFERENT IN DENVER?

What most of those afore-mentioned teams share is this: The bill eventually came due.

But perhaps that might not apply to the Broncos.

For one, the Broncos defense might have already paid out in their ghastly opening to the season that included a run of 18 touchdowns allowed in a 10-quarter span from the second quarter against Washington in Week 2 through the third quarter at Chicago in Week 4. These last three games might simply represent an ascension to the mean.

And then there is the personnel aspect. When the defense struggled, Baron Browning sat on the physically-unable-to-perform list. Fabian Moreau lingered on the bench behind Damarri Mathis. The same was true for Ja’Quan McMillian, biding his time at nickel cornerback while Essang Bassey got the repetitions.

Fabian Moreau made his first start for the Broncos last Sunday, and as Justin Simmons said, the veteran cornerback did an “amazing” job. Moreau notched a pass breakup and allowed a 47.9 passer rating when targeted. pic.twitter.com/YplZmb8Ruk

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) October 25, 2023

Both Moreau and McMillian have flourished. And P.J. Locke could force the Broncos into an interesting decision at safety when Kareem Jackson returns from his suspension next week.

Perhaps three touchdowns allowed in three games isn’t reasonable to expect in the next three weeks. But one should expect the Broncos to continue showing that their reality is closer to recent games than the season’s dawn — as long as they can stay healthy.