History shows why a win Sunday is crucial for Sean Payton, Broncos
Sep 15, 2023, 2:18 AM
Before the season, Sean Payton laid out expectations for his new team. And he made them clear in the news-making interview he granted to USA Today at the dawn of training camp several weeks ago.
“I’m going to be pissed off if this is not a playoff team,” Payton said at the time.
And that’s part of why Sunday’s game is so crucial to the Broncos’ hopes.
Because for teams that have started 0-2 with both defeats at home, the outlook is bleak. And for the Broncos to accomplish that goal if they fall Sunday, they will have to defy the odds.
Just two teams have ever made the postseason after opening 0-2 with both defeats at home: the 1987 Indianapolis Colts and the 2003 Philadelphia Eagles. And those Colts had the benefit of a strike that followed that winless fortnight to open the season. While the regular Colts picketed, the replacement team went 2-1, allowing the club to get back on its feet.
The strike ended after three games, and the Colts — bolstered by a midseason trade for future Hall of Famer Eric Dickerson — won seven of 10 games after returning. So, that represented an exceptional circumstance.
As for the 2003 Eagles, they opened their then-new stadium with consecutive losses to the previous two years’ Super Bowl winners, Tampa Bay and New England. They subsequently won 12 of their next 14 games and advanced to the NFC Championship before falling to Carolina.
THE NUMBERS SHOW HOW HISTORY IS STACKED AGAINST SEAN PAYTON AND DENVER IF THEY START 0-2 AT HOME
In the Super Bowl era, 51 different teams opened the season with home losses in their first two regular-season contests, per the data compiled from pro-football-reference.com.
From those 51 teams …
- … Just six (11.8 percent) finished with winning seasons …
- … Two (3.9 percent) made the postseason …
- … Four (7.8 percent) finished .500 …
- … Forty-one (80.4 percent) finished with losing records …
- … Thirty-five (68.6 percent) finished with winning rates below .400. This would translate to a record of 7-10 or worse with a 17-game schedule …
- … Nineteen (37.3 percent) finished with success rates below .300. This would translate to a season that was 5-12 or worse in a 17-game schedule …
- … The average winning rate was .346, which would translate to 5.9 wins, making an “average” season for teams starting off with two home losses in their first two games 6-11.
Yes, the door is not closed on a Broncos turnaround if they lose Sunday to Washington. But to do so, Sean Payton and his team would have to go against the tide of history.
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