There’s so much unknown, but the teams of Sean Payton often light up the scoreboard early

Sep 9, 2023, 6:00 PM

Senior Broncos Writer

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The excitement of Week 1 rests in so many aspects of the experience.

The pent-up energy of eight months without a game that matters. The tabula rasa of a still-unspoiled season; until the reality of regular-season action arrives, it’s OK — and, frankly, delightful — to dream.

And then there is the mystery.

Indeed, what do the Broncos have?

No one knows for certain. Not even the head coach himself.

“You’re anxious as a coach to see what you have,” Sean Payton explained when I asked him about the Week 1 emotions Friday. “… There are new players [and] you’re anxious to see where your team is at.

“It’s like a teacher that you’ve had a whole semester and you’re getting a big exam. You think you’re doing well, but you’re anxious to see.”

There will come a time when Sean Payton and his coaching staff has a better idea of their hand. But in preseason play and against themselves for most practices, it is impossible to know. Certainly in these parts, Broncos fans have become practiced in the art of deception in recent years … specifically, the deception of practicing against a team that eventually sunk to the bottom half of the AFC West.

“Usually, in the first four weeks, you get an idea of where you’re at. I’ve said this before, there’s a race to improve for every team immediately. Who’s getting better?”

Indeed, as Gary Kubiak would say … we’re fixin’ to find out.

And now, three numbers to know for Week 1:

28.1 — and why it matters for a Sean Payton team

That is the average points scored by Sean Payton-led teams in regular-season openers. In more than half — 9 — of his 16 Week 1 games as a head coach, his team reached the 30-point mark — including in four consecutive opening games before he left New Orleans.

That said, balky defenses often undermined the efforts. New Orleans was a pedestrian 4-5 in those games, in part because the Saints surrendered an average of 31.4 points per game when scoring 30 or more in Week 1 games from 2006-21. Five times in those nine games, the Payton’s Saints yielded at least 30 points.

Nevertheless, how do averages of 28.1 points and 403 total yards strike you? Because those are the mean figures in those categories for the Saints in Week 1 games under Payton. And with Drew Brees slinging passes for nearly all of those games, Payton’s aerial attack accounted for a completion percentage of 76.5 in season openers.

Furthermore, just once in a Week 1 game as head coach has Payton’s team had more interceptions than touchdown passes — all the way back in 2007, a 41-10 loss in which Drew Brees struggled, throwing two picks and no touchdown passes.

That, however, is the exception to Payton’s rule over the years.

100

It’s a magic number for Josh Jacobs and the Raiders. When Jacobs reaches 100 yards from scrimmage, Las Vegas is 19-7. When he fails to reach that milestone, the Raiders are 8-26.

Now, against the Broncos, it’s good either way. Las Vegas is 5-0 when Jacobs hits triple digits and 2-0 when he doesn’t. However, it’s worth noting that even in the two games when he didn’t hit that mark, he still averaged 4.82 yards and 5.93 yards per touch, respectively.

That, too, is significant. Because when Jacobs surpasses 4.4 yards per touch — as he has in all seven games played against the Broncos — Las Vegas is 21-13. The Silver and Black is 0-6 when he averages 4.4 yards or fewer per touch.

115.0

The magic passer rating for Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Teams guided by the 10-year veteran have never lost when he hits that mark — a perfect 16-0.

115.0 or higher: 16-0
100.0 to 114.9: 11-4
99.9 or lower: 17-15

Here’s how that sub-100.0 rating breaks down: