The numbers show Russell Wilson is two different quarterbacks

Fourth-quarter Russell Wilson is one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. And he showed that again Sunday night as he guided the Broncos to a pair of final-period touchdowns, nearly leading the team back from a 23-7 deficit after three quarters.

But the Russell Wilson of the first three quarters of games? That’s a different entity altogether. And while the cause of that discrepancy is the debate that could fuel a thousand hours of podcasts and sports-talk radio, the bottom line is this:

The need for the quarterback’s final-quarter heroics is — at least in part — due to the shortcomings in the three quarters that precede it. And a look at the splits for Russell Wilson shows just how profound the difference is.

It probably helps that Wilson maintains a hyper-focus on the game and his own mental frame of mind. By staying “neutral,” as he espouses, he tries to avoid the mental lows after things go askew during the game.

But what the Broncos would like is something more from their quarterback in the first three quarters of contests. And the discrepancy is alarming.

23

That is where Wilson ranked heading into Monday’s play in expected points added (EPA) per play in the first three quarters of games so far this season — among the 32 quarterbacks with at least 135 attempts in the first three quarters of games.

The bottom third of quarterbacks have a negative EPA/play this season; Wilson’s is minus-0.023. That places him just below Arizona-turned-Minnesota relief quarterback Josh Dobbs — who was just benched in the last fortnight in favor of Nick Mullens — and Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

Among the quarterbacks in the 10 spots above Wilson — roughly analogous to the middle third of the league — are Las Vegas rookie Aidan O’Connell, Indianapolis fill-in Gardner Minshew II, Tennessee rookie Will Levis, maligned third-year Bears quarterback Justin Fields, Wilson’s Seattle successor, Drew Lock, and stars such as Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, Detroit’s Jared Goff and Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers.

Here’s where Wilson stacks up in the first three quarters of games among those 32 quarterbacks with the most snaps in quarters 1-3 so far this season:

• EPA/play: Minus-0.023, 23rd
• Success rate: 44.3 percent, 23rd
• Air yards per attempt: 6.3, 31st
• Completion percentage over expected (CPOE): 4.7, 6th
• Passer rating: 95.4, 15th
• Yards per pass play: 5.53. 22nd
• Yards per QB rushing attempt (excluding kneeldowns): 5.73, 10th
• First-down rate when passing: 1 every 3.88 pass plays, 26th
• First-down rate when rushing: 1 every 1.85 rushes, 5th
• Total first-down rate: One every 3.41 QB plays (pass attempts, times sacked and rushing attempts), 25th

What is interesting is that Wilson is a plus player when he runs, and his CPOE remains among the league’s best. But his overall average ranking in those metrics is 18.6. Further, his rankings in passing-only metrics — air yards per attempt, CPOE, yards per pass play, first-down rate when passing — see three rankings in the league’s bottom 10 and an across-the-board average ranking of 20th.

5

That is where Wilson ranked heading into Monday’s play in expected points added (EPA) per play in the fourth quarter and overtime of games so far this season — among the 32 quarterbacks with at least 60 attempts in the fourth quarters of games heading into Monday.

• EPA/play: 0.196, 5th
• Success rate: 49.2 percent, 7th
• Air yards per attempt: 8.6, 17th
• CPOE: 5.3, 7th
• Passer rating: 103.6, 3rd
• Yards per pass play: 6.11. 10th
• Yards per QB rushing attempt (excluding kneeldowns): 4.67, 19th
• First-down rate when passing: 1 every 3.22 pass plays, 12th
• First-down rate when rushing: 1 every 1.5 rushes, 3rd
• Total first-down rate: One every 2.89 QB plays, 7th

That’s good for an average ranking of 9.0 in those categories. Furthermore, in the passing-only categories, his average ranking is 9.8.

So, that difference leads to decision time. Can the Broncos afford to add $37 million of long-term commitment to a quarterback who is top-tier in the fourth quarter, but bottom-tier the rest of the game?

Just as Sunday’s 26-23 loss to New England neatly encapsulated the Broncos’ season, so too did Wilson’s performance.

20

That is the number of points scored by the Patriots in the third quarter Sunday night, thanks to two touchdown marches and the recovery of Marvin Mims Jr.’s fumbled kickoff in the north end zone.

It was the first time New England had scored that many points in the third quarter in 53 games, dating back to Dec. 13, 2020. But what exacerbates this is the fact that New England had scored just 20 points in four of its first 15 ENTIRE games so far this season.

It was also more points than the Patriots had scored in a full three-game, four-week stretch that lingered from November through a 6-0 shutout loss to the Chargers on Dec. 3. The Pats didn’t look so punchless on Sunday night.