Russell Wilson’s contract could turn out to be a bargain
Jul 24, 2023, 6:00 AM
Ask anyone in Denver, or any football fan around the country, about Russell Wilson’s contract and the answer will be almost universal. It’s an albatross that’s going to haunt the Broncos for years to come.
On first blush, this makes sense. After all, the quarterback inked a five-year, $245-million extension, with $165 million guaranteed, before he ever played a down in a Broncos uniform. Then, he went out and had the worst season of his career, throwing just 16 touchdowns to 11 interceptions, compiling a dismal 4-11 record in his 15 starts.
To make matters worse, the contract hasn’t even kicked in yet. Last season was still a part of Wilson’s previous deal. So is this year. The first season of the five-year contract doesn’t begin until 2024, when the QB will be 36 years old.
As a result, there are some scary salary cap numbers associated with Wilson. Essentially, the Broncos will have a very hard time moving on from him. If they cut him now, the dead cap would be $107 million. After this season, it’s $85 million. Following the 2024 campaign, it’s still $49.6 million.
The Broncos can reap more cap savings than dead cap until 2027. At that point, they’d save $40.6 million, while enduring a dead cap of $12.8 million.
In other words, Denver is stuck with a quarterback in his mid-30s who seems to have lost his mojo. The QB that won at a 66% clip in Seattle, while posting huge numbers, disappeared a year ago.
That’s why George Paton has received so much criticism. The Broncos general manager gave Wilson a mega-contract before ever seeing him play in orange and blue. And he did it with two years left on the quarterback’s current deal, meaning he could’ve just bided his time, waiting to see what he had.
Most people think that’s what the Broncos GM should’ve done. Right now, it’s hard to argue that point. But in reality, there’s a good chance that Paton made a smart play.
Once he traded two first-round picks, two second-round choices, Drew Lock, Noah Fant and Shelby Harris for Wilson, Paton had to make sure that the QB was going to be in Denver for the long run. He couldn’t afford to give up seven assets and risk losing Wilson after a year or two.
If the QB hadn’t signed his deal, he might be pushing to get out of Denver right now. After a season of dysfunction, where he was booed in his first home game as a Bronco, Wilson might’ve said he didn’t want any part of the Mile High City.
That might sound like a blessing, but imagine if the Broncos had given up seven assets for one terrible season of Wilson. Then, imagine if he left now, went somewhere else and played like his old self. That’d be an unmitigated disaster.
The more likely scenario would be that Wilson would head into 2023 on the final year of his contract. The Broncos wouldn’t want to give him an extension right now. And the quarterback wouldn’t want to take a deal coming off of his career-worst season. So both parties would’ve entered this year in wait-and-see mode.
If Wilson plays poorly again, the Broncos could’ve been free of him for no more money. But again, they’d have given up a king’s ransom for two bad seasons of QB play. That’d be brutal.
If the quarterback plays well, Denver would’ve cost themselves a lot of money. They would suddenly be in a bidding war for their free-agent quarterback, in an offseason that features new mega-contracts going to Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. The market is going to get reset in 2024. Coming off of a good season, Wilson would’ve benefitted from that situation.
Wilson’s base salaries during his five-year extension are manageable:
2024 – $17,000,000
2025 – $37,000,000
2026 – $40,000,000
2027 – $45,000,000
2028 – $50,000,000
Even his salary cap numbers aren’t crazy:
2024 – $35,400,000
2025 – $55,400,000
2026 – $58,400,000
2027 – $53,400,000
2028 – $54,400,000
Those are big numbers, but they’re in the realm of what Jalen Hurts will count against the Eagles. Burrow and Herbert will exceed those totals, as the salary cap will keep going up as NFL revenues climb.
So if Wilson has a good year, which is the most-likely outcome this season, his deal will turn out to be a pretty good value. If he was available during an offseason bidding war, during an offseason with big QB contracts getting signed, his numbers would be even higher.
With Sean Payton at the helm, the Broncos offense figures to be much improved. At a lighter weight, Wilson’s playmaking ability should return. Those two things add up to him having a very good chance of returning to “Seattle Russ” form.
If he does, the Broncos will be thrilled to have him on the books for the numbers he’s slated to count in 2024, ’25 and ’26. At that point, they can choose if they want to continue paying their aging quarterback, without crippling cap implications.
Four seasons. That’s all the Broncos need to realistically get out of Wilson. That’s the goal.
After last year, that might seem like a lofty ambition. It may seem like an impossible mission.
But it’s the most-likely scenario. That’s why it was a smart bet by Paton.
Sure, Wilson could be terrible again in 2024. Betting on that less-likely outcome would’ve given the Broncos the chance to bail on their QB with only major damage to their roster.
But that’s a loser’s mentality. That’s an overly cautious hedge.
Last season was likely an aberration for Wilson. History suggests as much. It was a confluence of bad factors, most of which were connected to a coaching staff that was in over its head and has since moved on.
The proof of that came during the two meaningless games at the end of last season. With Jerry Rosburg at the helm, Denver was much better in every phase. Imagine what they’ll be with someone of Payton’s ilk in charge.
In those two games, Wilson threw for 505 yards and four touchdowns, with only one interception. He also had two rushing touchdowns. Extrapolate that over an entire season and the QB’s numbers would look pretty good:
Passing Yards – 4,293
Total TDs (Passing and Rushing) – 51
He was close to being old Russ on a bad team with an interim head coach. Payton should get even more out of him.
If he does, reaching anywhere near those numbers outlined above, Wilson will be worth every penny that the Broncos are paying him. And George Paton will look like a genius for getting out in front of the QB’s contract.
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