Three keys to the Broncos pulling off a massive upset against the Chiefs

The Broncos made some much-needed changes over the last week. Gone is former head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and the team could see an uptick in play over the final two weeks of the regular season.

In Week 17 on New Years Day, the Broncos will be on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s going to be tough because the Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL while the Broncos are near the bottom and searching for answers.

Broncos interim head coach Jerry Rosburg understands the frustrations fans have because the Broncos have lost 14 straight games to the Chiefs.

“I recognize that fact. I also think the fans of the Denver Broncos are recognizing that fact, too. That needs to change. How do you go about doing that? You put together the best gameplan that you can, you put the best players on the field, you teach them how to play and how to play together, and you go about making measure of that and changing that. That’s a number that I am having a hard time grasping, frankly, because this organization has a steadfast, incredible football tradition. It cannot be that way. It just cannot be that way. I’m setting out to try to—in one week—change the course of that,” Rosburg said.

Here are three keys to victory in Week 17.

***

Put It On Replay

I generally don’t like saying, “just do what you did last time” when projecting games in the NFL on a weekly basis. However, when it comes to this game against the Chiefs, I think my first key must include some of what the Broncos did in Week 14 to get after QB Patrick Mahomes. Sure, Mahomes had three touchdown passes against the Broncos but he also threw three interceptions.

The Broncos need to put pressure on Mahomes without sending extra defenders. The film and the advanced data both show the same thing; if you blitz Mahomes he will kill you. Mahomes is already one of the toughest quarterbacks to play against but blitzing him only makes him better. As the Broncos did in Week 14, they need to drop players into coverage and make Mahomes rush his throws without sending extra players.

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is the best in the game, and he might be the best of all time at his position. He’s still playing at a high level, and the Broncos’ defense will have their hands full slowing down this superstar. We did see ILB Josey Jewell have two interceptions last time out against the Chiefs, and a repeat performance – however unlikely – would be nice to see on Sunday.

Broncos CB Patrick Surtain is one of the best cornerbacks in the league, and he knows the key to slowing down Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense.

“We have to limit their explosive plays. That’s where the team rallies around. It starts with their quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, and their perimeter guys that creates plays for him. If we limit that, we have a good chance of slowing down their offense,” Surtain said.

***

Watch Out For Tricks

The Chiefs are playing for a lot on Sunday. They are currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC. With only one bye given out in each conference, the Chiefs will have to win out and hope the No. 1 seed Buffalo Bills stumble over the last two weeks of the season.

The Chiefs aren’t going to fall asleep against the Broncos. First, they’re going to remember the fight the Broncos put up against them in Week 14. Second, they have to win to have any chance of getting a bye in the first week of the playoffs. Finally, the Chiefs are getting a player back who could get mixed into the offense.

WR Mecole Hardman is ready to go after missing time with an abdomen injury. Earlier this year, there was a three-game stretch where he scored five touchdowns (two rushing, three receiving). Having him out there against the Broncos just gives another weapon to an already stacked team. Hardman may not be 100 percent, but the team should feel good enough to ease him back into action. Since the Broncos should be an easier opponent, the Chiefs might throw some trick plays into the mix. Those trick plays will work against the Broncos, but they’ll also send a message to future opponents that the Chiefs have more in their bag than some expect.

Rosburg knows how tough playing the Chiefs is going to be.

“Their roster is littered with stars. I mentioned yesterday, with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and Orlando Brown on offense — all those guys. Then, there is the defense with incredible playmakers upfront with Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and all their DBs who seem to all have similar skills. They are well coached. You watch their tape that I’ve been able to watch on offense and defense—this is a crew that shows up on SportsCenter nightly. For those of you, and probably many of you because that’s the business you’re in, it shows up on social media, I’m told. I don’t live there, but this is a rockstar crew. Their specialists, too. Tommy (Townsend), Harrison (Butker) and James (Winchester). This is a top-rated group. They have two great returns in their two different phases. Mecole (Hardman); you have all watched him. I loved him coming out of the draft. Unfortunate, he went to Kansas City and not Baltimore. They have a super great coach with (Chiefs assistant head coach/special teams coordinator) Dave Toub,” Rosburg said.

***

No Fear of Commitment

As difficult as it was to watch, the Chiefs were taken to overtime by the Houston Texans. The Broncos may have been bad this season, but the Texans are the worst team in football. So, how did that caliber of team push the Chiefs to an extra period? It’s simple; they stayed dedicated to the run. The Texans only averaged 3.4 yards per carry, but they stayed with the ground game. They rushed the ball 28 times against the Chiefs for just 98 yards. Remember, this isn’t fantasy football – the intent and dedication will matter more than the result.

Using the time of possession is just a wise move against the Chiefs. They can score at will, and they can score quickly. Yes, you want to make their offense move the ball with multiple plays – limiting the explosive plays. However, when you have the ball you need to keep your defense fresh with long drives led by your running backs.
This means RB Latavius Murray should be in line for more work. I’d rather see more work for Murray and RB Marlon Mack than I would the passing game. At least, I’d like to see balance from the Broncos offense. If they’re going to pass 30 times, then make sure to run the ball at least 25 times. If the Broncos have balance, it gives them the best chance to win.

Broncos QB Russell Wilson knows he needs to play better and he’ll do what it takes to do that.

“We have two games to go. I want to be able to go compete at the highest level and try to get us two wins and get a win against the Kansas City Chiefs. I know how much this game means to us just because of the rivalry and the history of it all. It’s another opportunity to play the game that we love with the teammates that we love. In terms of my confidence level, my resilience in myself, knowing who I am, and how much work I put into it every day—the mentality, the work ethic. You have dark days sometimes. It’s been up and down. It’s been a tough year in a lot of ways physically and just trying to score more touchdowns. [I’m] used to scoring a lot of touchdowns and winning a lot of games, and that hasn’t happened. It’s the first time it’s been like this. What I do know is that I believe in our guys that we have around us,” Wilson said.

***

Follow @CecilLammey