The Broncos game plan to beat the Chiefs in Week 14 at Empower Field
Dec 10, 2022, 3:36 PM
The Denver Broncos are near the end of a lost season. It’s Week 14, and there are five more games to go before the season is over. At that time, I anticipate we’ll see the Broncos begin to make as many changes as they feel necessary to right the ship.
The Broncos have a 3-9 record and are at home this weekend to take on the 9-3 Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High. I’m not going to call this a rivalry game because the Broncos aren’t good, and the Chiefs are excellent. However, we all know it’s a divisional game between two fan bases with no love lost.
The Chiefs are no longer the no.1 seed in the AFC after their loss to the Bengals in Week 13. That means they will be fired up to beat a very beatable opponent on Sunday. This is the Broncos Super Bowl, but I have a feeling it could look like Super Bowl 48 more than Super Bowl 50 on the football field.
How will the Broncos attack the Chiefs on both sides of the ball? Let’s take a look.
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When the Broncos Run the Ball
The Broncos will continue using a running back by committee approach with three backs getting work in the rotation. Latavius Murray is the starter, Marlon Mack is the primary backup, and Mike Boone is the team’s receiving back. This isn’t a great formula because it seems like none of these players can get into the flow of the game. Against the Chiefs, the Broncos had better hope one of them can.
It’s going to be a game of keep-away from the Chiefs on Sunday. You want to keep the Chiefs’ offense cold on the sidelines, and that means the Broncos need to dominate (or at least win) the time of possession battle. The best way to win that battle is running the ball early and often, something they usually don’t have a tendency to do.
Murray is a gap runner who is tough to bring down with a head of steam. Toss plays should work well for him, especially since that will get the linebackers flowing – perhaps getting out of their lane – and get Murray a clean look at the defensive front. Mack is a powerful runner who can thrive in gap or zone concepts. He’s the type of player to feed between the tackles and wear a defense down with due to his punishing style. Boone is a player you want to get in space as much as possible. However, he’s got the capability of being an “inside/out” runner and creating his own space after a handoff inside where he can use his speed to break to the outside at the linebacker level.
Mike Boone 💨
64 yards for the TD!#MINvsNO
— PFF (@PFF) August 10, 2019
The offense cannot go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs’ passing attack. That means a strong commitment to their rushing attack is a must in Week 14.
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When the Broncos Pass the Ball
Russell Wilson has flashed just a little bit this season, and (like it or not) he did against the Baltimore Ravens last week. I felt the Broncos and Wilson began the game with a good drive, but they settled for a field goal. I also felt they ended the game with a good drive, but it wasn’t enough for the win. It’s popular to slam Wilson and proclaim him to be over the hill. I don’t think that’s the truth. He’s not what he used to be, but you can still get good football out of the veteran quarterback if you set him up the right way.
So, how do they do that? It’s simple really. Run the ball, work from under center as your primary formation, and use play-action passing, bootlegs, and rollouts to get Wilson away from the defensive pressure. This Broncos offensive line has been badgered by injuries, and they’re not well coached under Butch Barry. Get that unit to run-blocking more and watch them thrive. Then, move the pocket to aid those guys from the pressure they’ve been letting through. Barry is not a good coach, so go back to basics up front and let their natural talent come through.
Courtland Sutton is on the wrong side of questionable with a hamstring injury, so that means Jerry Jeudy is likely to be the team’s no.1 receiver. Like Wilson, Jeudy has flashed just a bit this year. It’s not much, and it hasn’t been enough, but I’m not going to yet write off Jeudy as a bust. Again – like Wilson – the Broncos need to set up Jeudy for success. To me, that means in-breaking routes where Jeudy can use his ankle-breaking route-running ability to get open. Move the pocket to give Wilson time when you want to go deep, and Jeudy can fill that role too.
Rookie TE Greg Dulcich could be a difference maker for the Broncos. Many teams are “zone dogging” it up this season, so that invites teams to run. It also invites teams to go to the tight end. Perhaps big plays won’t be there against such coverage, but I’d like to see the Broncos take a chance on Dulcich. He and Wilson need to continue working on their chemistry, and most of the onus is on the rookie. Too often, I see Dulcich fail to sit down in the soft spot of a zone and thus the target from Wilson is off the mark. The kid could give some much-needed help to his quarterback by understanding the nuances of the game and getting on the same page.
JERRY. JEUDY.
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/I6HVAW0R2u
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) October 2, 2022
So long as the Broncos are safe with the ball, they can use a conservative passing game to complement their rushing attack. Short-to-intermediate passes, in-breaking routes, and using the tight ends and running backs as security blanket targets will work against the Chiefs.
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When the Chiefs Run the Ball
I’m not sure why the Broncos didn’t draft RB Isiah Pacheco. He was brought in for a top-30 visit before the draft, so the Broncos did have interest. However, instead of drafting him on Day 3, Broncos general manager George Paton chose guys like WR Montrell Washington instead. While Washington is looking like a bust who is losing confidence, Pacheco has been starting for the Chiefs for over a month – and he’s producing like a solid starter.
The Chiefs don’t run the ball much, but when they do Pacheco runs angry. He loves to punish defenders when he has to, but Pacheco also uses his speed to create space. With defenses so focused on the passing game, Pacheco and others usually have big lanes when running the ball. The Broncos will have to stand up to the tough running of Pacheco, and they’ll have to be careful, so he doesn’t break off any big runs. With his speed, the slightest error means Pacheco can make a house call from anywhere on the field.
In addition to Pacheco, the Chiefs use veteran RB Jerick McKinnon as a change-of-pace runner and receiver out of the backfield. McKinnon can beat you in space, and like Pacheco, he’s got plenty of speed to burn. McKinnon understands how to set up his blockers, and he’s got patience in addition to big-play ability.
Isiah Pacheco is running angry today against the Bengals. Does such a good job keeping his legs driving and running behind his pads to finish this carry in the end zone.
Every week the Chiefs rookie proves he should have been drafted before the seventh round. pic.twitter.com/1Oga7RUoem
— Seven Rounds in Heaven (@7RoundsInHeaven) December 4, 2022
Pacheco may be the angriest runner in the league. Chances are he’s going to be angry for the team that brought him in for a top-30 visit but chose not to draft him. Sorry Denver, but Pacheco could make you pay for that mistake multiple times over his career and that revenge tour starts on Sunday.
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When the Chiefs Pass the Ball
Patrick Mahomes is a superstar quarterback. There’s nothing he can’t do in the pro game. Play zone defense; Mahomes will work you with underneath passes. Play man-to-man defense; Mahomes has incredible anticipation and pass placement to make tight-window throws. Blitz him and Mahomes will kill you.
The Broncos’ defense has been good this year, but there is no other team they’ll face this season that is as explosive as Kansas City. Somehow, the Broncos need to get pressure with four players. The Broncos can blitz Mahomes, although the film and the advanced data show the same thing – he’s great when you send extra defenders after him. If the Broncos choose to blitz Mahomes, they need to be very careful about when and how often or else they will get gashed by Mahomes and his array of weapons.
Travis Kelce is the key, and the Broncos should expend plenty of energy slowing him down – or at least attempting to slow him down. I think they should bracket Kelce on most plays. They’ll have to commit two defenders to Kelce because they don’t have one man who can stop him. Even if they put CB Patrick Surtain on Kelce, that’s a risk that could end up hurting their chances to win. Their inside linebackers, Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton, are a liability in coverage so safety help over the top makes the most sense.
If it’s not Kelce, the Chiefs have plenty of other weapons that can beat you. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a deep threat who seems to be building better chemistry with Mahomes as the season goes on. JuJu Smith-Schuster is perhaps Mahomes’ second-favorite target, and he does a great job of ‘choice’ routes in the middle of the field. Even younger receivers like rookie Skyy Moore and fourth-year pro Justin Watson can get open for their quarterback regularly.
.@MVS__11 now has nine catches that took place 20+ yards down the field this season. That’s sixth in the NFL 💥 pic.twitter.com/xsDILGewA9
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 6, 2022
Mahomes is going to be tough to beat. Add in the fact that Kansas City has no room for error if they want to regain the no.1 seed, and you can see how the Broncos could be in big trouble on Sunday.
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