Three keys to the Broncos getting a win over the Chiefs in Week 14

Let’s be honest, the chances of the Denver Broncos this week are slim to none – with things leaning towards the latter. The Broncos are not good, and this week they’re facing perhaps the best team in all of football.

In Week 14, the Broncos are at home to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. While the Broncos (3-9) have only three wins this year, the Chiefs (9-3) have only three losses in the 2022 season. This is a game between two teams on the opposite side of one another in the NFL world.

Broncos head coach (for now) Nathaniel Hackett did not make Broncos Country happy when he pretty much blew off the team’s losing streak to their division rival.

“That’s the past. For us, it’s the now. It’s a West opponent, and it’s a great rivalry that’s been going on for years. I’m very excited to be part of it. It’s one of those things where we have to show that we can win to make it a better rivalry. That’s the starting point. Regardless of what your record is, it is an important game and it’s a West game. We’ll take it that way. We’ve been in a lot of games, and we have to continually battle. It’s going to be a great test for both sides of the ball,” Hackett said.

Here are three keys to victory in Week 14.

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Stop The Guy You Should Have Drafted

I was a big fan of RB Isiah Pacheco coming out of Rutgers. He was one of my sleepers in the 2022 NFL Draft, and I loved it when it was reported the Broncos brought him in for a top-30 visit. Teams only get 30 private visits with prospects before the draft and bringing Pacheco in meant the Broncos liked him.

They must’ve seen some of the things I saw in Pacheco. First, he’s fast. Pacheco has been clocked in the 4.2 40-yard dash range, and he brings that to the football field with great pad speed. Second, he runs angry. About halfway through the season, some in the league were calling Pacheco the angriest runner in the NFL. When that was their commentary, I felt like ‘what took you so long?’ Finally, Pacheco is a no-nonsense runner who wastes little time dancing in the backfield. Instead of trying to evade defenders with juke moves, Pacheco has always done a good job of trusting his blockers and utilizing his speed to create space.

Instead of drafting Pacheco on Day 3, the Broncos passed him over time and time again for guys like WR Montrell Washington or S Delarrin Turner-Yell. The Chiefs didn’t make the same mistake the Broncos did, and they decided to add Pacheco to their team in the seventh round. Pacheco entered his rookie season as a backup in a crowded room with former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire and veteran Ronald Jones. It didn’t take long for Pacheco to prove he was the better back.

Beginning in Week 7, Pacheco has taken over as the Chiefs’ starter in the backfield. While the Broncos have struggled to find a consistent ground game with various backs starting, the Chiefs seem to have found a solid starter in Pacheco. His 4.7 yards per carry this season ranks him no.5 in the league for regular starting running backs. The Chiefs may not run the ball as much as other teams but when they do Pacheco is an effective playmaker for them.

Pacheco had 14 rushes for 66 yards and a touchdown in the Chiefs’ Week 13 loss to the Bengals, adding two receptions for 16 yards.

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Pressure Mahomes

I think Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes puts more pressure on himself than he feels at times. Mahomes is a superstar, and he’s arguably the best quarterback in the league. On a weekly basis, Mahomes does things as a runner and a passer that we haven’t seen since they heyday of John Elway. Mahomes is a nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators, so Ejiro Evero is going to have his hands full this week more so than he usually does.

The Broncos need to be able to get pressure with four defenders. Since the trade of OLB Bradley Chubb, the Broncos have been unable to put quarterbacks under duress without blitzing. As I’ve said for year, much to the chagrin of Nate Jackson, if you blitz Mahomes he will kill you. The film and the advanced data show the same thing; when you send extra defenders after Mahomes he’s even more dangerous.

The Broncos need to put pressure on Mahomes, or they need to make him feel pressure himself. Mahomes is like a race car, and he always wants to go fast. There is a general sense of frustration that can wash over him if he must dink-and-dunk his way down the field. Mahomes will get impatient at times, and he may force things he usually doesn’t when this happens. It’s a long shot to be sure but playing umbrella coverage to keep everything in front of your defense is the best plan. Mahomes will move the ball against this defense, but you can prevent him from making those dagger throws for big plays downfield.

Hackett thinks Mahomes is improving from his already high level of play.

“Better. He is playing at an unbelievably high level, whether he’s hitting things in rhythm or he’s breaking the pocket. It’s incredible the different plays that he makes. I showed the team. There was one. It was third-and-17, everybody was covered, and he was able to scramble and get I think about 18, 19 yards. He’s just in that mindset and he’s just playing out of his mind, whether it’s the proper play or whether it’s in rhythm or he’s going to make plays with his feet. He looks to me to be an MVP. He’s unbelievable,” Hackett said.

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Kelce is the Key

Look at what the Bengals were able to do last week against the Chiefs. The Bengals have beaten the Chiefs three times in a row, and this seems to be the budding rivalry the NFL hasn’t seen since the days of the Peyton Manning-led Colts versus the Tom Brady-led Patriots. Studying the way the Bengals were able to win in Week 13, one thing stands out; they didn’t let TE Travis Kelce beat them.

In Week 17 of the 2021 season, the Bengals were able to beat the Chiefs by slowing down Kelce and they used that formula last week to get their third win in a row against arguably the best team in the NFL. Kelce caught 4-of-6 targets for 56 yards in the Chiefs’ Week 13 loss to the Bengals. Instead of Kelce shaking free for a big play to gash the Bengals’ defense, his longest gain was a 19-yard catch and run in the third quarter. For the most part, the Bengals forced Mahomes to check down to his running backs.

This is going to be a big task for Evero’s linebackers. Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton are great against the run, but they struggle in coverage. Against Kelce, those two are going to need help if they’re tasked with covering the All-Pro tight end. That means the Broncos must commit extra defenders to making sure Kelce doesn’t beat them – again.

Historically, the Broncos have struggled against the tight end position. They seem to be slightly better this year, but there are times they get gashed by an opponents’ tight end group. Kelce is the best there is, and he’s going to be tough to matchup against for Evero’s defense. After a down game against the Bengals, Kelce seems ripe for a huge bounce back game against the Broncos on Sunday.

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