One group of oddsmakers decreases Broncos 2022 win total by a full game

The Denver Broncos open training camp a week from today.

Football will finally be back at the UCHealth Training Center and the place should be rocking, as fans prepare for the most exciting season in a long time.

With Russell Wilson set to lead the Broncos at quarterback, optimism is the highest its been since the 2016 season. That was, of course, the year after Denver took down the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50. Unfortunately that season ended with a 9-7 record and missing the playoffs. Things have only gotten worse since.

The Broncos suffered through losing season after losing season before GM George Paton pulled the trigger on the blockbuster for Wilson this summer, sending the Broncos’ Super Bowl odds up, and the oddsmakers in Vegas suddenly bullish on Denver.

When the NFL season win totals dropped a couple of months ago, the Broncos opened at over / under 10 or 10.5 wins at most places. That included FanDuel, which had Denver at 10.5 wins. This means if they won 11 or more games, the “over” would hit and 10 or fewer games and the “under” would be a winner. However, on Wednesday morning, an interesting adjustment came out.

Win Totals Movement @FDSportsbook:

Ravens 9.5 –> 10.5
Broncos 10.5 –> 9.5
Raiders 8 –> 8.5
Chargers 10 –> 9.5

— PMS Odds (@PMSOdds) July 20, 2022

Moving an entire game is a pretty massive change, so this begs the question, why?

First, the Wilson shine could have worn off a little bit. It’s through no fault of his own, but Wilson hasn’t played a game with the Broncos yet and the “wow” factor just isn’t there anymore. It’s no longer shocking to see Wilson in the orange and blue. He’s practiced plenty both in Denver in San Diego with his new teammates and posted a lot on social media of him in a Broncos uniform. The average person knows he’s Denver’s QB and has had time to digest that news.

Now, people sleeping on Wilson simply because the stunning nature of the trade has worn off may be making a mistake. He’s by far the best QB the Broncos have employed since Peyton Manning retired and Wilson breaks the streak of mediocre after mediocre (or bad) starting quarterback.

The second reason could be more football related, and that’s the status of edge-rusher Randy Gregory. The Broncos gave him a massive five-year, $70 million contract this offseason only for him to need shoulder surgery quickly after. As camp and the preseason loom, there have been very few updates on Gregory and his status is in question. Should we see Gregory in Week 1? Hopefully. But that hasn’t been answered definitively.

Throw in the fact Bradley Chubb is coming off injury-riddled seasons two of the last three years, and Denver’s pass rushing room is talented but full of questions. If Gregory, Chubb and their depth guys click, it could be a strength. If they’re on the sidelines, it could be a very important area Denver struggles in.

Other than that, it’s hard to figure out a third reason why the win total projection could dropped by a full game. Denver, knock on wood, hasn’t suffered another major injury. The offense is brimming with playmakers and the defense has some extremely exciting secondary talent.

All of this will be resolved on the field in 2022, but for now, the Broncos are trending in the wrong direction with the oddsmakers. And maybe flying a under the radar is a good thing.

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