The Broncos game plan for beating the Bengals in Week 15
Dec 18, 2021, 4:32 PM
The Denver Broncos have a game on Sunday that feels like a playoff matchup. The Cincinnati Bengals come into town with the same 7-6 record as Denver. Both teams are on the bubble and are battling to get into the seven-team playoff picture in the AFC.
This game is not going to be easy for the Broncos. The Bengals are not the Detroit Lions. Like the Broncos, they have talent on both sides of the ball but are wildly inconsistent based on their easy schedules. The Bengals are 0-5 in one-score games this year, but if they win it’s usually in blowout fashion. Again, this is going to be a tough one to project.
How will the Broncos attack the Bengals on both sides of the ball? Let’s take a look.
***
When the Broncos Run the Ball
The Broncos have found a much-needed identity on offense. That identity comes from running backs Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. Both backs flourished last week and led the way for the Broncos offense in Week 14. They’ll ask them to do the same in Week 15, but the same success should not be expected.
The Bengals have the No. 4 rushing defense in the NFL and have only allowed 93.1 yards per game on average in 2021. Gordon and Williams are not going to have much room to run on Sunday. This is not a great matchup for the dynamic duo, and the fact both are banged up heading into this game doesn’t help either.
Gordon (thumb, hip) and Williams (knee) were limited all week in practice, but both are expected to play against the Bengals. Fans find this hard to believe sometimes, but the intent to run the ball is more important than the result. It’s not like you can average 2.0 yards per carry and be okay – you can’t – but you cannot abandon the rushing attack if things aren’t going as smoothly as they do against hapless teams like the Lions.
111 yards. ✌️TDs.
Vote for @Melvingordon25 for @Fedex Ground Player of the Week » https://t.co/T8UE25nY08#ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/AsXbCJGr7M
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 14, 2021
Can offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur have the wherewithal to stay with the rushing attack? This is the biggest question of the week, and it’s a question we’ve had before. Usually, Shurmur lets his team down with a faulty game plan and even worse play calling.
***
When the Broncos Pass the Ball
The Bengals have given up the fourth most receiving yards in the NFL, so this could be the week the Broncos go back to relying on their passing attack more than their ground game. Cincinnati can rush Teddy Bridgewater, and they can get pressure on him – they just struggle with coverage on the back end. So far in the 2021 season, the Bengals are No. 2 in the NFL with 37 sacks.
The Broncos must protect Bridgewater better than they have in previous games. Bridgewater is only blitzed at the No. 16 rate in the league (111 times), but he is hurried at the no.3 rate (62 times) in 2021. The film and the advanced data show that you blitz Bridgewater at a normal rate, but you get to him and get him off his mark at an incredibly high rate. It’s paramount for the Broncos offensive line to give Bridgewater time to find his receivers – who should be open regularly against this Bengals secondary.
Jerry Jeudy hasn’t scored a touchdown this year even though he’s Bridgewater’s favorite target. Just think about that; Jeudy is not ignored like Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick are in the passing game, yet he has not hit pay dirt in 2021. Over the last three games since returning from injury, Jeudy is leading the team in targets (15) while Sutton has 11 and Patrick has 13. If Bridgewater has time to throw, all three receivers could do more than they have over the last few games.
If Bridgewater does not have time to throw, the team could use both backs out of the backfield or they could use more tight ends like Noah Fant. The Bengals are middle of the pack when it comes to giving up yards after the catch, so perhaps Fant can be more than a catch-and-fall-down guy.
Jerry Jeudy’s release is unreal 🔥 pic.twitter.com/YvubDnaB5J
— Jordan (@J22Lopezz) December 18, 2021
We’ll see if Jeudy can get into the end zone or if Sutton can be used like he should or if Patrick is going to get more work in the red zone. So many things are up in the air with this receiving group. It’s not them or their talent – all three have incredible skill – but it’s the quarterback play, the protection of the quarterback and the predictable scheme that is holding them back. We’ll see if somehow that can change on Sunday.
***
When the Bengals Run the Ball
Joe Mixon is one of the best running backs in the NFL. He always has been a dominant runner, but this year Mixon is taking his game to another level. Currently at 1,036 rushing yards, he could break his career high of 1,168 (2018) against Denver. Mixon is the centerpiece of the Bengals offense and is a touchdown machine both as a runner and receiver out of the backfield. In 13 games this season, Mixon has 14 touchdowns (12 rushing, two receiving).
Mixon has power as a runner but he’s not just a power back. He will rip through arm tackles and has tremendous field vision which allows him to cut back against the grain to pick up extra yardage. Mixon also has speed he can beat you with. He’s tough enough to run inside, and if he breaks through to the second level – again with vision and speed – Mixon can take it to the house from anywhere on the field.
Behind Mixon, Cincinnati has another bruising back in Samaje Perine. He’s more compact that Mixon and does have more power. However, Perine has really proven this year that he can be more than a two-down banger. As a reserve in 2021, Perine has already tied his career-high in catches (22) in just 13 games. When Mixon needs a breather, the Bengals don’t lose much with Perine on the field.
Azeez making another big play on this one. He does a great job of getting skinny to swim by the RT to bring down Joe Mixon. pic.twitter.com/0tNetFwdt2
— 49ers_Film (@49ers_Film) December 15, 2021
Whether it’s Mixon or Perine, the Bengals can beat you up on the ground if your defense doesn’t have a plan to slow them down. The 49ers had that plan in place, and that’s why they were able to hold Mixon without a touchdown for the first time since Week 3. That’s also why San Francisco was able to get the overtime win last week over the Bengals.
For the Broncos to win, they must limit the impact the ground game – Mixon specifically – has on Sunday. Without Kenny Young (most likely), it might be difficult for the Broncos to do that. Young did not practice all week due to a concussion sustained in last week’s game. That’s going to put more pressure on rookie Baron Browning who has been teaming with Young to give them a fine duo at inside linebacker.
***
When the Bengals Pass the Ball
Broncos fans will have quarterback envy on Sunday. Joe Burrow is a young, franchise quarterback who is one of the most dangerous players in the league. While not quite Lamar Jackson as a scrambler, Burrow can keep plays alive – or pick up yards – with his legs. While he keeps plays alive with his legs, Burrow keeps his eyes downfield, and he does a good job throwing on the run.
He wins with accuracy and quick decision making. Burrow is not afraid of the rush or the coverage, and he will attempt challenging throws that other quarterbacks stay far away from. As a defense, you must be ready for Burrow to test you – no matter how tight the coverage. His group of targets certainly help the second-year pro look better.
Tee Higgins has always reminded me of Sutton. Like the Broncos star receiver, Higgins has a great size/speed combination and can win contested catches regularly. Unlike Sutton, Higgins is used more frequently and highlighted in the Bengals offense. Higgins is good – a star on the rise – but he’s not the Bengals best receiver.
That title belongs to rookie first-round pick J’Marr Chase. He was a college teammate with Burrow at LSU, and that chemistry from Baton Rouge comes through almost every Sunday. Chase is almost perfect as a wide receiver prospect. He’s got speed, he’s got hands, he’s got route-running ability and he’s got body control. Yes, Chase has the most drops in the NFL (9) but his big plays – field-flipping plays – more than make up for that.
The Bengals are so good on offense they rarely use Tyler Boyd. He’s a much better receiver than his 2021 stats (55 catches, 611 yards, two touchdowns) indicate. If the Broncos get Higgins and Chase covered, then Boyd could be a problem. So could tight end C.J. Uzomah. The tight end position has been an Achilles’ heel for the Broncos defense for years, but things have been better recently with Young and Browning. Now that there’s injuries at the ILB position, a tight end like Uzomah could do some damage.
What2Watch4 #SFvsCIN
1.🚫Mitchell➡️Hasty/Wilson/Deebo split🤷♂️
2. Jimmy G when no blitz: 4.8% TO-worthy play% (3rd worst)😬
2a. CIN D blitz% 6th lowest
3. Ja'Marr Chase % of rec 15+ yd: wk1-8: 23% (19.9 FP/g, WR3) | wk9-13: 0% (9.8, WR42)🤨
4. Joe Mixon (illness) vs #3 run DVOA D pic.twitter.com/F9AZA6O7l8— Golden Gate Fantasy Football (@goldengate_ff) December 11, 2021
The Bengals passing attack has the potential to be the best in the league on any given Sunday. Higgins and Chase are going to be a handful for the Broncos secondary. Add in Uzomah over the middle – especially without Young – and you can see more problems growing for the Broncos defense.
The key comes down to pressuring Burrow and getting him to play loose with the ball. He’s smart and accurate but will throw interceptions under duress. Burrow has only been blitzed 101 times (no.19) this year, but he’s under pressure on 25 percent of his dropbacks (no.12). The film and advanced data show that you don’t have to blitz Burrow to get to Burrow. If the Broncos can get to Burrow, they give themselves the best chance to win.
