Based on recent history, Drew Lock deserves the benefit of the doubt
Nov 11, 2020, 5:00 AM
Maybe it was because there weren’t any live sports on during those long stay at home months, but I seem to remember having a lot of time to discuss and dissect the upcoming Broncos season. As a result, some topics became repeat conversations.
What I remember about those debates was an almost unanimous opinion shared by Fan hosts and callers and texters alike that Drew Lock and this offense would struggle during the first part of the season. The reasons made complete sense.
The Broncos have a new offensive coordinator in Pat Shurmur. They had no offseason for OTAs and minicamps. There was no real training camp or preseason games. Words like “continuity” and “timing” and “reps” were thrown around with complete assuredness.
There seemed to be among Broncos Country an understanding the offense – and team – would struggle through the first half of the season. The defense would have to be great early and carry the offense through the early going.
John Elway even said that. The hope was that this offense – and team – would hit their stride in the second half of the season. Then, they could get on enough of a roll to either make a run at the playoffs or at least provide an undeniable sense the arrow was pointing up for Lock and this offense.
Back during those sports-starved months, if I had said, “I believe the Broncos will start 3-5, the offense will average 22.0 points per game, and Lock and Shurmur will have a tough time getting on the same page,” I don’t think anyone would have objected.
So I gotta ask, What were you expecting it to look like? What did you think 3-5 would look like? What did you think a sputtering offense trying to gain traction would look like?
I suppose it’s easy to just throw out predictions during the long offseason. But when it comes to the actual “devil is in the details,” we all forget what we meant?
I’m still on track with my evaluation and expectations for Lock and this offense. I’m giving it the full season. I’m not interested in riding the “Last week, he reminded me of a young John Elway; this week, the Broncos need to draft another QB” roller coaster.
There is still a second half of the season to play. If Lock is still playing the same way, still struggling to read defenses, still exhibiting shoddy fundamentals when the season is all said and done then, yeah, let’s talk about what to do next!
Drew Lock has played 10 games. I went back and looked at several of today’s young QBs and how they fared over a similar stretch.
• Josh Allen: In his 10th start, he was 13-for-26 for 204 yards. To that point, he had thrown six touchdowns and nine interceptions.
• Lamar Jackson: In his first seven starts, he completed 58 percent of his passes for just five touchdowns and three interceptions. After a full offseason and continuity, he took off in his second full season.
• Daniel Jones: He actually played very well his rookie year, throwing 24 TDs and 12 interceptions. But this year, with a new OC (ironically missing Pat Shurmur?), he has regressed.
• Carson Wentz: In his first 15 games, he was a 62 percent passer, with 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. In his next season, he began to hit his stride.
• Jared Goff: In his first seven starts, he completed just 54 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and seven interceptions. He didn’t start to take off until he had 15 starts under his belt.
Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray are two guys who got it right from the start. Baker Mayfield got off to a really strong start, but has regressed since.
My point in all of this is Lock deserves more patience from Broncos Country. I’m not saying he is eventually going to be a franchise QB. What I am saying is there plenty of evidence that suggests young QBs do struggle for awhile.
Add in a new OC and, oh yeah, a global pandemic, then maybe he has earned the benefit of the doubt?
