Evans: ‘Hope’ at No. 5 should not be a strategy for the Denver Broncos

I’m worried about how so many Denver Bronco fans and media view the quarterback position and this upcoming draft.

There is an air of panic and desperation I find very unbecoming of Broncos Country.

Where did this come from? Why is there a growing movement to take a quarterback, any quarterback at No. 5, just because?

Here’s the idea: The Broncos need to draft a quarterback.

They have an unproven quarterback in Chad Kelly, a likely bust in Paxton Lynch, and a meager two-year commitment to Case Keenum. None of those three seems to be a long-term answer at the sport’s most important position.

So, the thinking goes: You have to draft another quarterback.

And so far, I’m in.

But, here’s where the idea goes off the rails: You must take that quarterback at No. 5 because that’s where you’re supposed to take one of these quarterbacks.

Rational people, like me, ask, “Who is that quarterback, and why do you like him so much?” to which the answer is, “I don’t know who that quarterback is, and I can’t really tell you why he’s the guy. All I know is you’re supposed to take a quarterback at No. 5 because the odds are you have a better chance of finding one there.”

Typing this, then going back and reading it, just further illustrates the stupidity of this line of thinking.

That strategy is based not on a concrete evaluation of one quarterback over all the others to indicate he’s the guy. No, it’s based on math, odds, and probability.

That’s the way you want to pick a quarterback? At the expense of passing on a player at No. 5 who has a much better chance of being an impact player right away and for a long time?

This isn’t new. Teams have done this in the past. They’ve been so desperate for a quarterback they end up reaching, and football fans around the country — including here in Denver — sit back and laugh at how pathetic those teams look in their panic and desperation.

Take 2011 for example. Jake Locker went No. 8 to Tennessee. Blaine Gabbert went No. 10 to Jacksonville. Christian Ponder went No. 12 to Minnesota.

Desperate, panic picks.

Meanwhile, these were some of the non-quarterbacks drafted around those busts: Tyron Smith, J.J. Watt, Robert Quinn, Mike Pouncey, Nate Solder, and Corey Liuget.

Sure, teams then were desperate to find a quarterback. I would argue seven years later that level of desperation has only increased. Add in how college offenses have become even more quarterback friendly in those last seven years, and I bet the Lockers, Gabberts, and Ponders of the world would have been drafted even higher if they were coming out today.

I don’t want Denver to make a pick based out of desperation and panic. Call me a snob, but I’d like to think the Broncos stand for something different that separates them from the Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, and New York Jets of the NFL.

Yes, they need to draft a QB. No, it doesn’t need to be at No. 5.

You will never convince me there is a Grand Canyon-sized difference between the so-called Big Four (Five, I guess, if you’re going to overrate and include Lamar Jackson) and the next group, which includes Mason Rudolph, Luke Falk, and Kyle Lauletta.

And certainly not at the expense of passing on a likely high-quality player at No. 5 just to take a quarterback, any quarterback.

Here’s the other dirty side to the whole notion of taking a quarterback fifth-overall just because: Once you say that, don’t stop there. Keep going.

Keep going and admit the reason you’re basing your strategy on odds and probability is that you don’t trust general manager John Elway and his brain trust to actually evaluate quarterbacks and find the right guy.

Hope isn’t a strategy. Unless you’re the Browns and Jets. I don’t ever want to see the Broncos lower themselves to that level.