Sean Payton tied for worst odds to win NFL Coach of the Year

Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton led the team to a 14-3 record a year ago.

The Broncos were the No. 1 seed in the AFC and made it all the way to the conference championship before bowing out against the New England Patriots. Of course, they didn’t have QB Bo Nix that day, after he fractured his ankle against the Buffalo Bills the weekend before.

But Payton is widely regarded as one of the best in the league. He’s won a Super Bowl and is likely a Hall of Famer down the road.

That’s why it was a surprise where Payton landed when the oddsmakers released the favorites for NFL Coach of the Year. Payton is tied for dead last at 80-1 along with Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel.

The favorite is John Harbaugh at 6.5-1, followed by Jesse Minter (8.5-1), Kevin Stefanski (14-1), Kellen Moore (14-1), Joe Brady (15-1) and Ben Johnson (15-1).

All 32 head coaches are listed and Sean Payton and Vrabel are bringing up the rear.

But this is a good reminder that the “best” coach doesn’t always win Coach of the Year. It’s usually the guy with the coolest story, hence why John Harbaugh has the top odds. If he takes the dumpster fire that is the Giants back to the playoffs, he’ll have a pretty good case to win the award.

Last season it went to Vrabel after he guided the Patriots from 4-13 to 14-3. That’s the kind of turnaround the voters are looking for.

That doesn’t mean Sean Payton can’t earn it in 2026, although the Broncos would probably have to go 15-2 (or better) for him to even be in the conversation.

Payton’s won the award once back in 2006 with the New Orleans Saints. He was a finalist in 2024 with Denver, Payton’s first year with Nix when the Broncos made the playoffs for the first time since Super Bowl 50. Kevin O’Connell with the Vikings ultimately took it.

You can bet Sean Payton cares way more about hoisting the Lombardi Trophy than Coach of the Year, but this is still surprising heading into a season in which the Broncos are dreaming about winning the whole thing.

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