By the numbers, Bo Nix is getting better month by month
Dec 5, 2024, 2:57 AM
With Bo Nix, what the Denver Broncos want to see is steady improvement, to the point where he can handle more within the framework of the offense, allowing for greater flexibility in how the Broncos attack an opponent.
As his strengths increase, so too does the Broncos’ ability to be tactically nimble on offense and not an easy-to-counter monolith.
“We have a pretty good menu now,” Broncos coach Sean Payton said last week. “I think it’s all defense and game-plan driven. … Some teams, you might have a little bit less play action and [naked bootlegs], maybe a little bit more dropback. Then you get into your third down. I think each week, a lot of it is opponent-driven.”
And this is why Payton feels comfortable with a game plan that, for example, countered the Raiders’ emphasis on heavy fronts with passes downfield and outside of the numbers. The Broncos did precisely that in their 29-19 win at Las Vegas, which meant that Nix’s completion percentage dipped, but he had an effective game in a different manner that perhaps he would have been able to execute a month or two earlier.
The statistical trend lines also reflect his progress and how his arc remains on an upward trajectory.
Among the quarterbacks with at least 50 plays in a month, this is where Bo Nix stacked up:
EPA (expected points added) per play:
September: 30th of 33 eligible QBs
October: 19th of 36 eligible QBs
November: 11th of 33 eligible QBs
Success rate:
September: 31st of 33
October: 18th of 36
November: 17th of 33
Passer rating:
September: 31st of 33
October: 11th of 33
November: 7th of 33
Completion percentage over expected (CPOE):
September: 29th of 33
October 16th of 33
November: 15th of 33
That’s palpable, steady across-the-board progress.
Nix took a slight backslide last Monday, although he has three games to make up the ground — just as he did last month after he struggled in the Broncos’ 41-10 loss at Baltimore.
And this is the thing for Nix: He still has rough games and moments — even though the one interception that didn’t involve a caroming football against the Browns, a deep attempt, was a play that Payton put on himself.
“That was my fault; that call was not good,” Payton said.
But the overall work put into Nix’s development has been good. And the numbers reflect the fruits of that labor — from both the coaches and Nix himself, as he continues to make forward progress along with the improving young Broncos.
