Broncos need to avoid trap of believing they’re close to contending

Jan 16, 2025, 4:00 AM

The Broncos held their annual end-of-the-season press conferences on Wednesday, with Greg Penner, George Paton and Sean Payton all fielding questions from the local media. The proceedings had a different vibe this time around, which is a little bit of good news and bad news.

It was positive because Denver is coming off of a solid season. They finished above .500 for the first time since 2016 and made the playoffs for the first time since 2015, ending those two streaks of futility. They also won 10 games, which was nearly double what the wise guys in the desert predicted.

There are reasons to feel optimistic. There are things to build upon. And the owner, general manager and head coach were all upbeat about the future.

“The results of this last Sunday were not what we were hoping for or expecting, but I think the experience that the young team got will be critical for the future,” Penner said. “I will say that while we are incredibly pleased with the progress and number of accomplishments this year, we don’t at all feel like we are satisfied with where we are. We know that this offseason will be a critical one for us to build for the future.”

His GM agreed.

“I think the beauty of going to the playoffs and seeing what it looks like is seeing how close we are or how far we are,” Paton added. “This has to be our standard moving forward. We have to go to the playoffs. You’re going to play teams like the Bills, like the Ravens, like the Chiefs. So how do we get there? Really that’s our goal this whole offseason. We need to have another really good offseason, another really good plan. I know we will.”

But that plan could be measured.

“We’ll all get together and it starts with evaluating your own team,” Paton continued. “The determining your needs, your musts, your wants, as Sean talked about. Then you’re chasing. You’re trying to fill those all offseason. That’s how you close the gap.”

How will they accomplish that goal?

“Keep developing these young players,” Paton offered. “We’re a young team. We have a rookie quarterback. We have a lot going our way. We have $52 million in cap room. We have a great coaching staff. We have I think the best ownership group in the NFL. We have a lot going in our favor.”

Which means the Broncos could be conservative again in free agency.

“We’ll be measured,” the general manager explained “It worked out for us last year. We were very measured. We picked our spots. We were very strategic. It worked out. You can’t go crazy every year. We could be really aggressive, but I think we’ll have a more measured approach and still upgrade our team.”

And the head coach was reiterating the message.

“I’m telling you what, I didn’t see a gap last weekend until the second half,” Peyton said. “So we’re not looking backwards, we’re looking ahead. “Obviously, we’re still not there yet. (But) we’re a lot closer than we were at this time a year ago.”

But there’s a danger to this mindset. There’s a risk that the Broncos talk themselves into being closer to a contender than they actually are in reality.

“It starts with the division, and there’s a lot of confidence in this team if we could get past that game,” Peyton said about the possibility of playing the back-to-back champs in Arrowhead this weekend. “The next game we had to play, we felt real good about.”

That seems a bit aggressive.

Yes, Denver beat Kansas City in the season finale, winning 38-0 at Empower Field, but that wasn’t a real game. The Chiefs had zero interest in competing that day, racking up just five first downs and less than 100 yards of offense as their backups and players who weren’t on the roster the week before got shellacked in a game they didn’t try to win.

And sure, the Broncos put up a valiant effort in a 16-14 loss at K.C. earlier in the season. If not for a Wil Lutz field goal getting blocked on the final play of the game, Denver walks out of Arrowhead with one of the biggest upsets of the season.

But a meaningless win and a moral victory are hardly something to build upon. In fact, they reek of providing a false positive about the current state of the team.

Yes, the Broncos won 10 games this season. But That was an unbelievably skewered number.

Denver went 8-0 against teams with a losing record. They racked up victories over the Jets (5-12), Raiders (4-13) twice, Colts (8-9), Browns (3-14), Falcons (8-9), Panthers (5-12) and Saints (5-12). That’s a couple of pretenders and a bunch of teams drafting in the top 10 come April.

Conversely, the Broncos were 1-8 against with a winning record, minus the finale against the Chiefs. They lost beat the Buccaneers, but then fell to the Seahawks, Steelers, Ravens, Chiefs, Chargers (x2), Bengals and Bills. That’s an assortment of contenders, playoff teams and franchises that were eliminated from contention in the last two weeks of the season.

That’s alarming. It’s the tale of two seasons, with Denver proving that they aren’t in the bottom half of the league anymore, but also failing to show that they’re ready to hang with the NFL’s upper echelon.

The reality is that the Broncos need to improve. They need to get better in a lot of areas.

Denver finished seven in total defense, allowing just 317.1 yards per game. But that’s a misleading number.

In their 10 wins, the Broncos gave up just 290.8 yards per game. That would’ve been second in the NFL had they maintained that pace all season.

In their eight losses, Denver surrendered 365.8 yards per game. They would’ve finished 30th in the league at that rate.

And in their playoff defeat at Buffalo, the Broncos defense failed to answer the bell. They gave up 471 yards of offense (the most of Wild Card weekend), surrendered 31 points (second only to the Chargers at 31) and allowed the Bills to be on the field for a whopping 41:43 of the clock.

That was a continuation of the end of the season. Denver gave up 552 yards to the Browns and 499 to the Bengals, one win and one loss, during the month of December. They weren’t the same team down the stretch.

Why? They got exposed a bit. Teams eventually found the weaknesses of a no-name defense, making it harder for players to exceed their abilities.

The Broncos have two great defensive players, with Patrick Surtain and Nik Bonitto living up to that moniker. Zach Allen is a really good player along the defensive line. But outside of those three, it can be argued that Denver could use across-the-board upgrades.

How long are they going to ignore inside linebacker? Do they have an adequate cornerback opposite Surtain. Do they have enough in the middle of the d-line? Are Brandon Jones and P.J. ever going to be anything other than middle-of-the-road safeties?

There are more questions than answers. And they all can’t be answered in the draft.

Same goes for the other side of the ball. Sure, there are reasons to be encouraged by the play of Bo Nix. The rookie quarterback was much better than most “experts” believed he’d be, throwing for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns during the season, but there are still things he needs to improve upon.

For starters, Nix compiled most of those stats in wins over the lesser teams. Twenty of TD throws came against franchises who didn’t sniff the postseason or were taking the week off. Against playoff teams or those contending for a spot, Nix threw just nine touchdowns and tosses seven of his 12 interceptions.

The quarterback’s areas for improvement were on display in the loss on Sunday to the Bills. He had just 13 completions for a measly 144 yards, while missing some key third-down throws that would’ve kept the chains moving.

But he’s far from the Broncos biggest problem. Every other skill-position group needs to be upgraded.

The Broncos didn’t a single 100-yard rusher in 2024. And aside from a 43-yard run by Tyler Badie in Week 3, they didn’t have a single scamper of 22 yards or more by their top three running backs – Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin or Audric Estime.

Denver also only had four 100-yard receiving games on the season, three from Courtland Sutton and a one by Marvin Mims Jr. Sutton is a nice player, but he’s not a legit No. 1 receiver in the same sphere as Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson or Ceedee Lamb. Mims is a promising young player, as are Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele, but they aren’t big-time threats at this point.

And that group looks great when compared to the tight end room. Adam Trautman (13 catches for 188 yards), Lucas Krull (19 for 152) and Nate Adkins (14 for 115) aren’t going to scare any opponent. They pale in comparison to what other teams in the AFC West boast, namely Travis Kelce in Kansas City and Brock Bowers in Las Vegas.

The Broncos have some solid pieces. They have players who made the Pro Bowl or were selected as alternates at cornerback, edge rusher, left tackle and quarterback, four cornerstone pieces to any good team. But they need some playmakers. And they need them immediately.

That’s why talk of a “measured” offseason is alarming. That makes it sound like the Broncos plan to find new pieces in the draft, while hoping that young players will continue to improve. Both of those are crapshoot strategies.

It seems like Denver has something to build upon. That’s what a 10-7 record and a playoff appearance would suggest. But there’s also plenty of reasons to believe they aren’t quite as good as their record, and that postseason berth, would indicate.

Here’s hoping Penner, Paton and Peyton realize that fact. Otherwise, 2025 might not be an improvement upon 2024.

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Broncos need to avoid trap of believing they’re close to contending