Experts’ picks for the Nuggets record and who wins the NBA title

We asked our Nuggets experts for their picks on the hoops season ahead and the group has some spicy thoughts on the coming season for Denver

BY JAKE SHAPIRO

Oct 24, 2024, 2:30 AM Updated: 2:31 am

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Watch: How did the Nuggets end up with the NBA’s WORST offseason grade from The Athletic? | 8 mins

The Denver Nuggets 2024-25 season tips off on Thursday with a battle against the other team who tied them atop last year’s West with 57 wins in the Oklahoma City Thunder. But each fell short in the playoffs, going down in the second round. The Nuggets blamed fatigue in coming off their 2022-23 title season while the Thunder had youth as an excuse. Most prognosticators have the two teams again rivaling each other atop the West, but what do Denver Sports and 104.3 The Fan’s Nuggets voices have to say?

We asked Nuggets analyst Jake Shapiro, Denver Sports’ editor James Merilatt, host of Dover and Cecil Josh Dover and host of The Drive Zach Bye for their expert picks on the hoops season ahead. In the next seven questions, the group previews the points where the Nuggets season could go awry and who will come out on top this year in the NBA.

Nuggets record prediction and playoff future:

Shapiro: 51-31, lose in second round
Bye: 52-30, NBA champions
Merilatt: 48-34, lose in first round
Dover: 53-29, NBA champions

Grade the Nuggets offseason and explain why:

Shapiro: B-
Calvin Booth got the big stuff done, keeping the core four together. The Nuggets locked in Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon on long-term extensions at reasonable numbers. For taking care of the two big things alone, Denver had a positive offseason. I’d also add in the positivity of Nikola Jokic’s run for Serbia. He showed the world how special he is and performed to his peak while at the top of his powers. Also on the international scene was the return of Nuggets role player Vlatko Cancar, who missed last season with a knee injury and would’ve been a useful bench guy a year ago. And in free agency, the Nuggets made a nice pickup of veteran backup big Dario Saric. Everything else was dark for the Nuggets this summer—they willingly let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and broke up a championship-winning starting five to save money under the guise of flexibility. Booth then traded some of their last few future draft picks to dump decent backup guard Reggie Jackson and deal up for rookie DaRon Holmes II on draft night. While the rookie is the Nuggets guy and a win, it was an immediate loss for this coming season as he went down with an Achilles injury in the Summer League. The Nuggets then replaced the Jackson role with former MVP Russell Westbrook, who has been an abject disaster in the playoffs the last several seasons. On top of that, lead guard Jamal Murray had a brutal stretch of play for the Canadian Olympic Team. The big and long-term stuff was great but all the small things that should impact the team immediately went against the Nuggets this summer.

Bye: C-
I hated losing KCP but I understand it. Getting Murray and Gordon extended, while at times felt a little awkward, were close to formalities. I’m bullish on the addition of Saric. His basketball IQ and skill set will fit in with the Nuggets brand of basketball and lift the second unit. I’m more skeptical about the addition of Westbrook. While he’s a great teammate and locker-room leader, I question adding the worst volume three-point shooter in NBA history to a team that needs to make more threes. We may in the end find out why he’s been on six teams in six years. Also, and this is just bad luck, not being able to see Holmes in his rookie season just stinks.

Merilatt: B
The top priority was keeping the four core players in town. They did that with the extensions given to AG and Jamal. I like the Russell Westbrook signing. But is this team better? Probably not, given that KCP departed.

Dover: A
They were limited by their unwillingness to dip into the second luxury tax. They’re not the only ownership group that doesn’t want any part of that by the way. They were able to keep the core together, resigning Murray and Gordon. Plus, I really like the addition of Westbrook. Yes he will have frustrating moments but he can teach this team how to play hard every night and he brings a fire on the court this group has never had.

Who is the X factor for this Nuggets season and why?

Shapiro: Julian Strawther will be huge for both opening up the Nuggets spacing and bench scoring. The second-year player from Gonzaga had a strong start to his rookie year but picked up an injury derailing his season. The 22-year-old 6-foot-7 two-guard only shot a tick under 30% from deep in his first season but in college, he was at 37% then 41% in his final seasons with the Bulldogs. The Nuggets took the fewest threes in the league last year and that’s where the departures of KCP and Jackson are felt. The two were third and fifth on the team in deep-ball attempts last season. Strawther will need to play alongside the starters when they’re struggling to score, he’ll need to space for the Westbrook-led bench and he will need to become a real threat from deep to open up the Nuggets offense.

Bye: Westbrook. Brodie is in the final stage of his career. If he doesn’t win a ring in Denver he’ll be at a hall-of-fame table with Charles Barkley and Karl Malone. Can he be an efficient CEO of the second unit? Can he stabilize his boom-or-bust nature and be the veteran anchor the bench seeks? Will “pushing” Jamal Murray end up in a personality clash? He’s not starting, but is he closing? There are so many questions. If we get the right answers it could lead to a title. If not, Westbrook in Denver could be a trivia question a decade from now.

Merilatt: Christian Braun and Peyton Watson. Can they turn into KCP and Bruce Brown? The core four is in place, so it’s all about the role guys. When they were good in that area, the Nuggets won a title. When they haven’t been, they had an early playoff exit.

Dover: The easy answer is Murray. Can he play more than 60 games this year? It would be just the second time in five seasons if he can. Can he stay in shape and be rested enough to contribute in the playoffs? I know he made some really big shots, but they need him to have really big playoff games, not playoff moments. But I will say MPJ is the x-factor. I am expecting a big jump from MPJ, a more aggressive MPJ, a guy who will show us he can be more than just a three-point shooter.

What’s the ceiling for this year’s team and how do they get there?

Shapiro: All four of us agree that it’s a second ring in a third year. For me, if all three young players become legit NBA role players while Cancar reintegrates into a bench unit led by a bought-in Russ—then the bench will be the best it has been in Michael Malone’s tenure. Couple those highs with an MPJ that seems to have taken a leap this offseason and a Murray who’s one of the best players in the league when healthy—that’s a recipe for a dance through the postseason and a celebration after. Jokic will remain an MVP-level guy and if Watson leaps or Murray rises back to full health—the Nuggets probably hoist a banner.

Bye: NBA title. They get back to the mountaintop if Murray can stay healthy and recapture the player he was on the 2023 title run. We need to remember what a title-starved Jokic and Murray looked like together. It’s one of the greatest combinations we’ve seen in this era of the NBA. If they’re healthy and hungry at the end, they can hang another banner.

Merilatt: NBA title. Jokic plays like an MVP. Jamal plays like he did in the 2023 playoffs. MPJ becomes a consistent 17-point-per-night scorer. And Braun/Watson make the leap.

Dover: The ceiling is what we all expect and should expect while Joker is on the team. It’s winning the NBA championship and bringing Larry O’Brien back to the Mile High City. They get there Joker being Joker, Jamal living up to his end of this new deal, MPJ taking a big jump, AG being AG and Russ, Saric and Strawther keeping the bench heads above water!

What’s the floor for this year’s team and why did it go so badly?

Shapiro: Even without Murray, Jokic has proven to pull the Nuggets into the playoffs with a subpar roster and even win playoff series. The Nuggets are a lock for the postseason but they’ll likely only get a sixth seed if Murray’s offseason issues continue into the season. What if Braun doesn’t fill in for KCP the way we all think is possible? What if Watson’s jumper is actually worse than what it’s shown so far? There’s a way here where the Nuggets are panicking around the All-Star Break with a roster of projects that haven’t been completed co-led by a guard whose knees are failing him and a forward whose back is always in question. If all goes this badly, they’re getting bounced in the first round but still making it that far thanks to Joker.

Bye: Bounced in the first round. You think it could never happen until it does, We just saw this after the Avalanche won the Stanley Cup. Shoot, we could have seen it this past year with the Nuggets had Michael Porter Jr. not shot nearly 50% from deep in the Lakers series. The West got better and the Nuggets on paper got worse for a second straight year.

Merilatt: Squeaking into the No. 6 seed. Are Jokic and Jamal out of shape? Does MPJ stay healthy? Are Braun and Watson ready for bigger roles? Bad answers to those questions cause major problems.

Dover: If Jokic does not get the help he needs and does not have a healthy, engaged and hungry team this team could lose in the first or second round of the playoffs. If MPJ does not take a big step, if Jamal doesn’t return to playoff Jamal and if the bench is still a problem they could be an early playoff out.

What will Nikola Jokic’s season look like?

Shapiro: Jokic is going to play fewer games than he ever has before but even 65 games will qualify him for the MVP—and if the Nuggets are able to go 48-17 in those games then he’s going to have a real shot at the award for a fourth team even though voters won’t want to hand it to him. I do think Jokic may have peaked over the last 20 months. That’s not to say we’re going to see a big drop off just that Malone needs to manage his star and make sure he’s at his best come April.

Bye: Jokic will play fewer games than he typically does but he will still finish in the top three of MVP voting. We will continue to watch one of the 15 greatest players in NBA history finish again inside the league’s top 10 in points, rebound, and assists.

Merilatt: I’m worried that he’s out of shape, but history suggests he will play at an MVP level. I’ll trust him, but I’m concerned.

Dover: Joker will be talked about in the MVP race again but will not win. His numbers will keep him in that conversation for a couple more years. He will be the reason the Nuggets win 50+ games, an All-Star again, All-NBA again and will continue to climb the ladder in all-time in triple-doubles.