Where will the Broncos and Russell Wilson be a year from now?

It was the Russ-iversary on March 8. One year ago on that date, news broke that the Broncos had made the seismic deal for Russell Wilson, a trade that sent shock waves through the NFL. It also heightened the Broncos’ expectations.

They fell far short of those, of course.

But this isn’t about the past. Let’s channel Sean Payton and remove the rear-view mirrors — and even the side-view ones, too. Because at the second anniversary of the Wilson trade, there are four likely outcomes.

1. RUSS IS BACK! (AND SO ARE THE BRONCOS)

This is the easiest solution. It provides the quickest window back to contention. It turns an anniversary bordering on infamy into one that, in 2024, beckons Broncos Country to bring out the cake and ice cream.

And really, this is what you want from hiring Payton.

Payton’s coaching wrings the most out of Wilson, restoring him to his pre-trade norms. The QB doesn’t flirt with being an MVP, but he returns to being a top-12-caliber quarterback, restoring the Broncos to playoff contention.

This is the easiest, cleanest scenario. And if he plays a full season like he did during the two games with Jerry Rosburg as interim head coach, this is a distinct possibility. If this happens, in 12 months, the discussion revolves around how Wilson’s contract actually isn’t that bad.

2. A SEASON LIKE 2022 — AT LEAST FOR WILSON

Wilson struggles, with comparable production to his first Broncos campaign. He once again ranks in the league’s bottom quarter in passer rating and QBR. (In 2022, he ranked 27th and 28th, respectively, among 33 eligible QBs in those metrics.)

In this case, the Broncos must evaluate the details of Wilson’s season with Payton. Did he show progress to demonstrate he could return to his Seattle apex in the future? Or is the 2022 level of performance indicative of what the Broncos can expect?

The caliber of backup quarterback also plays a role here, too. If Wilson and the Broncos struggle early, is their reserve good enough to warrant a chance? If the Saints cut Jameis Winston, the public debate will rage.

Should it be the latter, the Broncos’ best choice would likely to be to move on and swallow an $85 million dead-money hit spread over two seasons before another $37 million of guaranteed money kicks in on the fifth day of the league year.

3. SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN

And there are plenty of ways to get there, but the most likely one is this:

Wilson plays most of the season, and is good, but not great. He emerges with numbers that place him in the middle tier of quarterbacks. Last year, the median passer rating among eligible quarterbacks was 91.1 and the mean QBR was 54.0. Both of those are below Wilson’s career averages, but significantly above where he stood last year.

So, the question is: How did he get there? Was it with a fast start and a slow finish? Or did he surge and improve as the season progressed? And where did the team land?

This is the haziest category. It’s the best for debate shows. But it places the Broncos in a tough spot with the afore-mentioned $37 million guarantee looming.

4. THE INJURY CONUNDRUM

This is where it gets complicated. But the notion of a season-ending injury can’t be dismissed. Usually, at least one prominent NFL quarterback sees their season end early because of a significant injury that can linger into the offseason.

In this instance, the Broncos’ choice could depend on how well they did with Wilson’s understudy leading the way — and what type of backup QB he is. If it’s a Jameis Winston-type backup who does well enough to get the Broncos to 8-9 or 9-8, they could run it back with the reserve.

But if the Broncos collapse entirely without Wilson — and their season bottoms out to where they’re in position for a high draft choice — that may provide window to move in the direction of moving on from the QB.

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