The numbers show that Teddy Bridgewater’s season is a bit of a mirage

The Broncos beat the Lions on Sunday, dismantling the worst team in the NFL in a 38-10 rout. The victory was the result of two things – a strong running game and a stout defense.

The fact that Denver’s passing attack wasn’t a factor in the win shouldn’t be a surprise. In fact, it’s the continuation of a trend.

Anyone who has watched the Broncos since the start of October knows that their offense has sputtered. More specifically, they know that Denver has had trouble consistently throwing the ball.

They don’t make big plays through the air. Instead, they just dink and dunk their way through games.

That comes as zero surprise, however. That’s what Teddy Bridgewater has been throughout his career. The veteran quarterback is not afraid to check down; he’s more than willing to take the safe, easy throw.

The Broncos knew that’s what they were getting. In fact, it’s what they wanted. It’s why Bridgewater won the job during training camp.

On the surface, that decision looks pretty good. After all, the Broncos are sitting at 7-6, in the mix for a playoff spot with four games to go.

And Bridgewater has good numbers. He’s completing more than 67 percent of his passes, has thrown for 2,954 yards and 18 touchdowns, and only has seven interceptions. Those are more than respectable stats.

In part, that’s why the quarterback believes he’ll cash in this offseason. When he hits the free-agent market, Bridgewater is reportedly going to seek a contract that averages $25 million per season.

That seems like a staggering number. But there are 13 current NFL quarterbacks earning more than that amount. It’s right in line with what Derek Carr is earning to guide the Raiders.

Is Bridgewater worth that kind of money? Should the Broncos consider bringing him back, trying to build upon what they’ve done in 2021?

Not in a million years.

History suggests that Bridgwater is limited as a quarterback. The fact that he’s on his fifth NFL team, in a QB-starved league, is evidence.

The eye test shows that Bridgewater isn’t the long-term answer. He just don’t make the kind of plays that elite quarterbacks make on a weekly basis.

And a deep dive into the numbers demonstrates that Bridgwater isn’t the future in Denver. A closer look at his statistics shows that they’re fool’s gold.

The Broncos season can be broken into two categories. First, they’ve played the bottom feeders of the NFL. They opened with games against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets, plus they got to play the Lions in the newly added 17th game. Second, they’ve played the rest of their schedule.

Bridgewater has fared great against the directional schools. He’s been below average against everyone else. Here are the numbers:

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AGAINST THE DIRECTIONAL SCHOOLS
Opponents: Giants, Jaguars, Jets, Lions
Opponents Combined Record: 10-41-1
Broncos Record Against: 4-0
Bridgewater’s Stats: 91-120 (75.8%), 1,006 yards, 6 TDs, 0 INTs

AGAINST EVERYONE ELSE
Opponents: Ravens, Steelers, Raiders, Browns, Washington, Cowboys, Eagles, Chargers, Chiefs
Opponents Combined Record: 66-50-1
Broncos Record Against: 3-6
Bridgewater’s Stats: 182-284 (64.1%), 1,848 yards, 12 TDs, 7 INTs

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In other words, it’s all about the opponent. Against bad teams, Bridgewater thrives. Against good and/or mediocre teams, he’s pedestrian at best.

That goes for winning games, posting good numbers and almost every other metric for judging a quarterback. The splits are jarring. They’re drastic.

All in all, Bridgewater has been okay in 2021. He’s been fine.

For this season, when the Broncos have played a last-place schedule, the NFC East and a 17th game against the worst team in the NFL, that’s been good enough. It won’t be moving forward.

When it comes to making a decision about their quarterback, the Broncos need to trust history, their eyes and the numbers. All three point to Teddy Bridgewater being a short-term solution.

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