Is it Audric Estimé time for the Broncos?

Audric Estimé looked the part last Thursday in averaging 5.3 yards per carry against the Los Angeles Chargers. He’s one of three Broncos running backs now averaging at least 4.5 yards per attempt this season, joining Tyler Badie — who remains on injured reserve — and Jaleel McLaughlin, who missed last week’s game due to a quadriceps injury.

What’s more, he fulfilled the expectations put upon him by Sean Payton, who spoke on multiple occasions of wanting him to get the ball more often — both on Nov. 4 and again three weeks later.

Payton added Sunday that he believed Estimé had earned more opportunities based on his work last week, which saw him receive his first start and score his first touchdown.

“Yeah, I think he has. I think he played well,” Payton said. “I was encouraged with the physicality he ran with, and I think they’ll only get better, so, I was encouraged.”

Of course, Estimé also played just 13 snaps last week. He carried the football on nine of them, a rate that resembles the one for Jaleel McLaughlin last year. Meanwhile, Javonte Williams played 20 more snaps than Estimé. He had a better per-carry average against the Chargers than he has in most of his games this year.

But for multiple reasons, leaning to Estimé might be the prudent play — even if concerns about his early-season ball-security issues remain. He brings a powerful burst between the tackles. Work for him also allows the Broncos to get a proper evaluation to illuminate a potential offseason decision as to whether to add a potential starting running back in free agency or the draft.

With a chance, Estimé could prove to be an answer to that question. Why go shopping if you have what you need already in the house?

Still, if the running-back “hot hand” approach continues, the Broncos might want to consider simply leaning into the ground game that operates behind an offensive line that entered last week No. 1 in the NFL in run-block win rate, per ESPN Analytics. After all, that is a path to success for Payton.

BEYOND ESTIMÉ, IT’S SIMPLY TIME TO RUN FOR THE BRONCOS

In Sean Payton’s head-coaching career, his teams are 51-4 when they run at least 50 percent of the time. Now, there’s a chicken-and-egg conundrum to this, of course, as a team is more likely to run when they play from ahead or have parity within the game.

That ledger includes a 5-1 mark with the Broncos. The only game the team has lost in Payton’s stewardship with more runs than passes was at Houston in Week 13 of the 2023 campaign.

Last week, despite early-game success for Estimé, Williams and rookie practice-squad member Blake Watson, the Broncos rank on just 33.3 percent of their snaps — their second-lowest percentage of the Sean Payton era. Only against Minnesota last year did the Broncos have a lower run percentage with Payton calling the plays.

His play sheet commanded him to “RUN IT!!!” But his team did so less often on a percentage basis than at any time this season, with their lowest run percentage in 22 games. Given Payton’s history, that’s not a formula for success.

 

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