Bookies believe Broncos likely to rise above .500 in return home

The Denver Broncos went to the East Coast and won back-to-back games setting up a favorable matchup in their return to Colorado.

Unlike last year when the Broncos didn’t really begin to turn things around until Week 7, the second season of Sean Payton has seen the team quick quickly erase an 0-2 start. While almost 90% of teams who start 0-2 miss the playoffs and Denver hasn’t been in the postseason since winning Super Bowl 50—the Broncos odds nearly doubled last week alone according to bookmakers.

It was pretty by no means but the Broncos beat the Jets 10-9, on the back of beating Tampa Bay 26-7 a week earlier. With those efforts, Denver is now .500 and hosts their rival Las Vegas Raiders, who are also 2-2.

Considering everyone in the AFC West is 2-2, aside from the undefeated Chiefs, this matchup could have major playoff implications if both teams have strong second halves.

Showing the importance of the game, ESPN’s FPI has Denver with a 21% chance of making the playoffs which is up 14% from last week. The Raiders sit at around 26%, which could flip with the Broncos if the Orange and Blue come out on top.

Unlike the black and silver, the Broncos are having to come back from a 0-2 start which only about 10% of teams to start that way end up making the playoffs including last year’s Texans. Bookies have Denver’s chances set at +380 right now which carries implied odds of 21%. So Vegas still thinks the Broncos are alive and defending Denver would go a long way for the season’s hopes.

Denver Broncos odds

Week 5: Denver -2.5

Playoffs Odds: +380 (up from week 4 +800)

Super Bowl: +15,000 (up from Week 4 + 30,000)

What the Broncos odds mean

Oddsmakers think the Broncos will beat the Raiders by about a field goal with a final count of 19-16 or so based on the over/under total. Las Vegas is in a strange place as a franchise not quite competing for the top or rebuilding whereas Denver is clearly in the middle of a rebuild. The Raiders wins have come against the highly-thought-of Ravens and lowly Browns—while the losses have come to the competitive Chargers and the laughing stock Panthers. What to make of the Raiders and where they stack up at this point is challenge. For the Broncos, their only losses have come against teams who are now 3-1 in Seattle and Pittsburgh and have somewhat separated themselves from the pack, and the Broncos even gave Tampa Bay their lone loss. Just based on the strength of schedule, Denver’s 2-2 is a bit more impressive, and thus maybe why the oddsmakers believe in home-field advantage this time around.

This will be the 130th matchup between these foes. The Broncos are 54-73-2 all-time against the Raiders. The Raiders won both games last year, 17-16 earlier in the season and then 27-14 toward the end of the season. But it’s worse than that, it’s been eight straight wins for the Raiders in this series at a time in Las Vegas’ history that they haven’t even been that great. The Broncos will hope the bookies are right and that they will score their first win against the Raiders since 2019 when they still called Oakland home.

The Broncos are home again for their next game, hosting the Chargers in Week 6.