Broncos are road underdogs for matchup with Jets

The Denver Broncos are coming off a surprising win and an easy one at that, by going on the road and beating down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-7 in Week 3.

Unlike last year where the Broncos were throttled in Week 3 and the season was basically over, Denver has hope headed into a Week 4 road test led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix and veteran coach Sean Payton. The team will square off with the New York Jets who boast Denver’s last head coach Nathaniel Hackett calling the offense for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who was once a Broncos trade target.

The Jets are off to a 2-1 start and have the NFL’s eighth-best Super Bowl odds. New York started the season with a rough loss to the highly-thought-of 49ers and then beat the lowly Titans and Patriots.

ESPN’s FPI has Denver with a 14.2% chance of making the playoffs which is up 10% from last week. Of course, the Broncos are having to come back from a 0-2 start which only about 10% of teams to start that way end up making the playoffs including last year’s Texans. Bookies have Denver’s chances set at +800 right now which carries implied odds of 11.1%. So Vegas still thinks the Broncos are alive and stealing a road game in New York, in a building where Denver played a Super Bowl in, would go a long way for the season.

Denver Broncos odds

Week 4: Denver +7

Playoffs Odds: +800 (up from week 3 +1300)

Super Bowl: +30,000 (up from Week 3 + 40,000)

What the Broncos odds mean

Oddsmakers are thinking the Broncos will drop to the Jets by a little less than a touchdown with a final count of 23-16 or so based on the over/under total. Given New York has high hopes for the playoffs and the Broncos are in a rebuild, experts must both think Denver’s win and New York’s weak schedule mean these teams are maybe closer to each other than their 2-1 and 1-2 records may suggest. But keeping games close has been a notion for the Broncos under Payton thus far, including both losses this season being one score.

Plus, the NFL has been highly favorable to teams that are as big of dogs as the Broncos are for Week 4. Teams that are 5.5 point underdogs or more are 14-2 in covering this season with 10 outright wins including a 5-0 record in Week 3.

This will be the 42nd matchup between these foes. The Broncos are 22-18-1 all-time against the Jets. New York won 31-21 the last time these teams met, in the Hackett revenge game last fall. The Broncos did win the lone meeting these franchises have had in the postseason which was in 1999. But these teams have been playing against each other since 1960, as two founding members of the AFL.

The Broncos are back home for the next game, hosting the Raiders in Week 5.