Bookies believe Broncos will basically be eliminated from playoff contention in Week 3
Sep 16, 2024, 2:52 PM | Updated: Sep 24, 2024, 11:37 am
The Denver Broncos are off to the worst start possible, and their hopes of snapping a playoff drought could be all but dashed just three weeks into the season.
Just like last year, the Broncos head to Florida for a Week 3 matchup with a 2-0 team—this time it’s the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Broncos are obviously underdogs in the game and if Denver does indeed lose that’s more or less it for this year’s team. According to ESPN, 103 teams have started 0-3 since 2002 and just one of those teams (the 2018 Texans) has made it to the playoffs and pushing the current 14-team bracket back in time only adds the 2013 Steelers into the fold. So teams that start 0-3 in a 14-team playoff are 2-101 in getting to the playoffs.
ESPN’s FPI has Denver with a 4.3% chance of making the playoffs which is more than double the historically data for an 0-3 start. Of course, the Broncos are only 0-2 at this point and about 10% of teams to start that way do end up making the playoffs including last year’s Texans. Bookies have Denver’s chances set at +1300 right now which carries implied odds of 7.1%. So Vegas is hedging the difference of ESPN’s analytics of what the Broncos are as a team and the historic data of an 0-2 start.
Denver Broncos odds
Week 3: Denver +6.5
Playoffs Odds: +1300 (down from preseason +500)
Super Bowl: +40,000 (down from preseason + 25,000)
What the Broncos odds mean
Oddsmakers are thinking the Broncos will drop to the Bucs by a touchdown with a final count of 24-17 or so based on the over/under total. Given Tampa Bay is competing for a playoff spot in a tight NFC South and the Broncos are in a rebuild, experts must think Denver’s saving grace in keeping this close is the fact that when they lose under Sean Payton it has been close, including both losses this season being one score. But one blowout does stand out, Week 3 last year when the 0-2 Broncos met the 2-0 Dolphins in Florida who were favored by a touchdown.
This will be the 10th matchup between these foes. The Broncos are 7-3 all-time against the Broncos. Tampa Bay won the last time these two teams met, Tom Brady’s final game against the Broncos and a 28-10 for his Bucs back in 2020 en route to a Super Bowl championship. However, Tampa has not beat Denver in Florida this century.
The Broncos will travel to the New York Jets in Week 4.
