One stat shows Broncos entire season might hinge on Sunday

The Denver Broncos may be playing their most important game in years this Sunday when they battle the Houston Texans.

The surging 6-5 Broncos and young 6-5 Texans may very well be fighting for the same playoff spot in six weeks, and Week 13’s result should play a major impact. After Week 12, both teams are just on the outside looking in at the seventh-seeded Indianapolis Colts, who are also 6-5. Next is the Cleveland Browns at 7-4, who the Broncos just scored the tiebreaker against winning their head-to-head battle in Denver.

With a tiebreaker on the line and two teams ahead of them with starting quarterbacks done for the season, Sunday is shaping up to be one of the biggest Broncos games since Super Bowl 50. New York Times playoff predictor agrees, saying the entire season could hinge on the result.

The Broncos playoff odds have jumped from 4% to 38% over the past two weeks, but all that work could be undone with a loss—or better, this hot streak might put Denver in pole for the postseason.

A win in H-Town would give the Broncos a 55% chance of making the dance whereas a loss would drop Denver to a 15% shot, according to the NYT playoff predictor. Factoring in other games in Week 13 and a best-case scenario of results from around the NFL would give the Broncos a 67% chance of making the playoffs while the worst would dig Denver to 12%.

The Broncos trip to Texas is the first in a three-game road trip with a divisional game against the Los Angeles Chargers and then a journey to face the strong Detroit Lions. As of Monday, the Lions are the lone playoff team remaining on the Broncos 2023-24 regular season slate.

Last season the Broncos beat the Texans 16-9 in a very ugly game. Houston finished high in the draft, taking quarterback CJ Stroud. He has already changed the franchise’s fortunes in a short period.