Analytics, meetings and flexibility: How Payton and Paton are setting the draft board

Broncos players aren’t in meetings right now.

At this point on the calendar, those sessions belong to Sean Payton, George Paton and the rest of the Broncos’ coaches and football-operations staff.

“Every day, you feel a little bit more comfortable. You’re completing tasks,” Payton said Thursday during a press conference over Zoom.

The question-and-answer session with Denver-area media turned into a 50-minute break from the draft-preparation process. And while neither Payton nor Paton spilled any secrets, they offered some illumination as to their pre-draft process.

For starters, they appeared aligned. They appeared to share more than just the pronunciation of their surnames. And when Payton talks — “He sounds like a scout,” Paton noted — Paton hears something familiar.

“He reminds me of [Nick] Saban just sitting in meetings,” Paton said, recalling his two years in Miami when Saban was head coach.

“They have a similar vision of how they want to build the football team. They have a clear vision on how they want to build the team. I’m aligned with Sean on that. You can see throughout free agency with some of the players that we signed and some of their make-up. You’ll see that moving forward.”

Payton’s vision crystallized in his 16 seasons with New Orleans. But that doens’t mean he can’t incorporate new ideas — particularly from the Broncos’ analytics crew.

“The analytics department is something that is on a different level here,” Payton said. “I’m like that driver of a new car that still hasn’t figured out how to get the seat warmers on. It’s pretty impressive, and it’s new for me in a good way. I’m talking about the efficiency of the process. We weren’t as far ahead [in New Orleans] when we were looking at some of these players as to being able to pick up and access the information is quickly.”

And that helps facilitate evaluation.

With the torrent of information, Payton and Paton’s perspective on prospects can change. Sometimes, it’s good. Others, not so much. But to overlook any of the information that arises would be a mistake.

“[There are] players you like and then you keep digging further into the process and you’re like, ‘Ah, I wish I didn’t see that,'” Payton said. “I think if you’re doing the process and working through it, then you have to acknowledge everything that you’re seeing, or else why go through the exercise?

“We’ve had a number of players that we feel like we’ve shuffled a little bit. Not drastically, but we’re talking about maybe ahead of one other player. When the medical comes out, that certainly impacts decisions.”

And as Paton noted, even in the hours before meeting the media Thursday, the accumulation of more information led to a shift on their draft board with one player they had ranked highly.

“We just kept watching more. We got the medical and discussed it more,” Paton said. “By the end of the day, we flopped him and another player. That happens daily as you work through the entire process.”

Part of that process involves coaches and scouts entering the draft room and offering their input. While Paton, Payton and assistant GM Darren Mougey stay in the draft room, the scouts and coaches are part of a “divide-and-conquer” process. Each have clusters of prospects they evaluate and then they enter the draft room for further discussion and evaluation.

“We have time to dig in and that’s what we’re doing,” Paton said. “During the fall scouting season, you’re doing a team. You’re doing Ohio State and you’ll watch three games on a guy. This is a time we really dig in. We have the coaches, and we know the vision. Sure, players will change throughout this week.”

And another thing that happens is the cross-ranking of players. Denver’s staff ranks the players at each position. Then comes the part where they “cross stack” and determine value in the overall draft.

“You’re comparing the receiver, the corner, the defensive lineman or tackle, now you have apples, oranges and pears and you’re really trying to get the value right,” Payton said.

And that’s where Paton’s experience helps.

“I look [at the position groups] and say, ‘What do you think the value is historically?’” Payton said.

But soon, the draft board will become fairly static.

And if you’re waiting for any knock-down drag-out duels between Payton and Paton, don’t hold your breath. They’ll resolve disagreements over prospects before draft day.

“That decision would have been made,” Paton said when asked what happens if the two face a deadlock. “I know that’s a cop-out answer. We’ll discuss this so much. That’s all we do all day is discuss these different scenarios. Even deep in the draft. We actually have a mock that goes to the seventh round, believe it or not. That won’t happen.

“Draft day is actually peaceful. It’s quiet, the work has been done and it’s calm up until your pick. Then you’re making calls, you’re working trades. Those decisions will have been made.”

What’s left is reacting and adapting to the board as it falls. Moving up, moving down, standing pat … the Broncos believe they’re prepared for any of it.

“The reason these meetings go for three weeks, four weeks and into the late nights — it’s no different than game planning in football,” Payton said. “On Sunday, you’re making a call on fourth-and-four, but that was decided on Wednesday night.

“I think the same thing takes place relative to the draft. With each of these three days, often times there are certain decisions and reactions that have been kind of covered well before it ever took place. I think that’s the best way to handle it.”

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