Why a Broncos trade for Budda Baker might make sense … and why it doesn’t

It isn’t often that a two-time first-team All-Pro and a five-time Pro Bowler — including selections in each of the last four seasons — becomes available. What’s more, that player is regarded as one of the game’s best locker-room presences and leaders.

The latter part of that equation became obvious to the public during last year’s in-season “Hard Knocks” series. The Arizona Cardinals foundered over the course of that show’s run, leading to the dismissal of their head coach (Kliff Kingsbury), general manager (Steve Keim) and their coaching staff. But Baker’s performance and professionalism was one of the bright lights in a dark Arizona season.

And now, with changes enveloping the Cardinals, Baker reportedly wants out — unless the Cardinals give him a new contract making him the NFL’s highest-paid safety.

Team source: Budda Baker informed the Cardinals in February that he wanted to be traded or receive a new deal to make him the highest-paid safety.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 14, 2023

WHY DOES THIS MATTER TO THE BRONCOS?

It comes down to Sean Payton’s choice as defensive coordinator: Vance Joseph.

Baker was already a splendid safety before Joseph joined the Cardinals as their defensive coordinator in 2019 following his two-year hitch as Broncos head coach. He expanded on that in the past three years.

If the Cardinals decide to trade Baker, the Broncos are a logical destination. That’s because of the coach-player connection, and Denver’s willingness to spend boldly to reverse its six-season slide of sub-.500 finishes.

THE CASE FOR TRADING FOR BAKER:

Talent-wise, if the Broncos could trade for Baker while keeping Justin Simmons, they would have the NFL’s best safety tandem.

The question is the contract. If the Broncos traded for him, they’d have an additional cap figure of $13,096,559 for this year and $14.2 million for next year. That’s approximately $1.6 million below the combined cap charges of Simmons for this year and next.

But therein lies the rub: If the Broncos were to trade for Baker and give him give him a new contract, would Simmons want more, as well?

AND WHY THE BRONCOS SHOULDN’T …

If Baker’s cap charges push north of $16 million a season, the Broncos would have a total average-per-year figure of over $30 million for their safety position. It’s debatable whether the position is worthy of that sort of massive investment.

So, the only way this makes cap sense without pushing even more of the hit into the future is by divesting at least one major contract in a trade. And it’s unlikely that any player who the Broncos would consider trading — aside from Simmons — can provide enough value to make a deal without draft picks palatable.

Further, if the Broncos decide to create the dream team at safety, then a trade likely involves draft compensation. The primary thrust of it would likely come from next year. The last thing the Broncos need to do is sacrifice 2024 draft capital.

The most viable way of making the trade plausible is by dealing Simmons. But the idea of landing Baker would be to team him with the 8-year veteran. Simmons and Baker have skill sets that complement each other perfectly. Baker will aggressively attack inside the box, while Simmons’ superpowers are his range and ball-tracking ability.

FINAL ANALYSIS:

The notion of a Baker-Simmons pairing is a tasty one. And after the last six seasons, the notion of an “irreplaceable” player does not exist on the Broncos’ roster. But trading Simmons to get Baker is not an appetizing notion, and wouldn’t go over well in the locker room. Further, trading draft capital is an unwise move. With QB questions, the Broncos need to replenish their crop of cost-controlled young players for the future.

In an ideal situation for the Broncos, a trade would make sense. But times are not ideal.