The game plan for the Broncos to beat the Rams on Christmas Day

The Denver Broncos want to stay on the winning track. After losing five games in a row coming out of their Week 9 bye, the Broncos finally got back to the “W” column with a victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15. They may not have many chances to win more games with only three contests left this year, and two of those against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers, but this game on Christmas Day could be their last and best chance to win.

The 4-10 Broncos travel to take on the 4-10 Los Angeles Rams in Week 16. Most NFL games are played on Saturday in Week 16, but the Broncos will be one of three games on Christmas. They’ll have the national spotlight on themselves once again, something that hasn’t been great for them or the viewing audience this year.

The Rams are a beatable team, and the defending Super Bowl champions are the first such team to have 10 losses the following season to a championship since the 1999 Broncos. It’s in their house, and the Broncos have not yet won on the road in the 2022 season (not counting the game they were the ‘home’ team in London against the Jacksonville Jaguars).

How will the Broncos attack the Rams on both sides of the ball? Let’s take a look.

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When the Broncos Run the Ball

I simply can’t believe the Broncos ran the ball last week against the Cardinals. For the first time in what seems like forever, the Broncos had their rushing attack lead the way. It worked, as it always would have, but I’m afraid the team may have only done that because backup QB Brett Rypien started against Arizona. While Rypien attempted only 26 passes, the Broncos had 34 rushing attempts with starting RB Latavius Murray getting 24 of those carries.

Not only were the 24 carries a season high for Murray himself, but that total far exceeded any number for a Broncos back this season. In fact, until Murray had 17 rushing attempts in Week 11 no Broncos running back had more than 15 attempts in a single game this season. Even going back to when Javonte Williams was still healthy or when Melvin Gordon was fumbling his way out of town – the Broncos offense did not get the back into a rhythm. That was a huge mistake the team did not correct until last Sunday against the Cardinals.

With the 24 carries, the Broncos were able to grind down their opponent. Those carries also helped Murray get into a rhythm and feel for the game. Murray had a long rush of 35 yards, but he was able to gain 130 tough yards and get one rushing touchdown as well. When the team needed to give Murray a breather, backup RB Marlon Mack came on the field fresh. A tired defense from Murray’s punishment had to then deal with the power and intent of Mack. That’s a great combination for the Broncos, and this is a plan they should have had every week.

Honk if you love @LataviusM. 🚂

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/QPe5jBWfKp

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 18, 2022

It will be interesting to see if the Broncos continue to run the ball now that Wilson is back under center for the team. I hope they finally learned their lesson, but only time will tell if that’s their plan against the Rams on Christmas Day.

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When the Broncos Pass the Ball

Wilson has briefly flashed this year as the Broncos starter. He was supposed to be much better than this, but Wilson does not fit what head coach Nathaniel Hackett wants to do on offense. With Rypien as the starter, the Broncos were efficient with the passing game. I hope that Wilson can be as efficient while also being a more dangerous passer than Rypien when it comes to arm strength and the ability to keep plays alive with his feet.

It’s that last part that could be a bit tricky against the Rams. We got word on Friday that Rams defensive lineman, and one of the biggest superstars in the league, Aaron Donald is not going to play but the Rams are still hard on opposing quarterbacks. Wilson is going to be under pressure, and I hope that he still feels encouraged to take off and run when he needs to. During his time with the Seahawks, Wilson saw the Rams twice a year as a divisional opponent. He knows that his legs must help lead the way. The problem then becomes if he’s feeling timid based on how he was concussed after a rushing attempt against the Chiefs two weeks ago. I hope Wilson still feels confident to take off and run or extend plays.

Jerry Jeudy has been unlocked over the last few weeks. Playing the backside ‘X’ receiver spot, Jeudy has thrived as the primary read in the passing game. We’ll see if that continues with the expected return of could-be no.1 receiver Courtland Sutton. While Jeudy has thrived, Sutton has been on the shelf with a hamstring injury for a few weeks. This Sunday could be the first time the two are on the field at the same time post Jeudy’s breakout game. Add in TE Greg Dulcich as a ‘seam ripper’ in the middle of the field, and you can see how Wilson is going to have a full complement of weapons in Week 16.

Okay, Brett! 👏

📺: FOX | @brettryp pic.twitter.com/iPeQFGcTOX

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 18, 2022

The Broncos will be closer to full strength in their passing game than they have been in some time. Wilson needs to be efficient as a passer, get rid of the ball quickly, and avoid the rush to keep plays alive.

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When the Rams Run the Ball

The Rams are running the ball mostly with third-year RB Cam Akers. It’s an odd twist of fate because of how they began the season with Darrell Henderson as their starter. Henderson was okay for the Rams, and Akers was on such shaky ground with the team that the Rams asked him to stay away from the building and the team was expected to trade him before the deadline. Instead, Henderson was waived by the Rams and Akers was welcomed back.

Akers is your traditional power back. He can live between the tackles, and he doesn’t mind doing the dirty work to pick up tough yards. Akers is not a speedster, but he does a good job of getting to top speed in a hurry. He doesn’t waste motion as a runner, and he hits the hole with authority. Akers runs with great intent, and he’s sneaky quick with subtle movements and crisp footwork to make defenders miss in small spaces.

Behind Akers, the Rams have a rookie running back I thought the Broncos should draft on Day 3 earlier this year. No, it’s not Isiah Pacheco (starter for the Chiefs) this time, but those listening to our draft coverage may remember when I talked about Kyren Williams from Notre Dame. Like Akers, Williams is not a flashy runner and I think he’s more of a jack-of-all-trades type of player. Williams can be effective as a runner or receiver out of the backfield, and that versatility makes him a great complement to what Akers brings to the field.

Rumblin' to down inside the 10!

3️⃣ @thereal_cam3 | 📺 @ESPNNFL pic.twitter.com/Rh09XPceMW

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) December 20, 2022

Akers and Williams are a better-than-some-think combination in the backfield, so Denver had better not overlook this duo. The Rams will certainly try to keep things on the ground and keep the time of possession in their favor. If the Broncos can stuff the run, their chances of winning go up exponentially.

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When the Rams Pass the Ball

Rams QB Baker Mayfield doesn’t back down from a challenge. Now, he’s not very good but don’t tell him that. He plays what scouts call “yolo” ball because “you only live once.” Mayfield does not really care about the coverage, and he is willing to challenge any defensive look he sees. Often, Mayfield has already predetermined where he’s going with the ball and that’s why he seems so bold as a passer. I don’t think it’s confidence, rather I think Mayfield is stubborn and makes his mind up where to pass before he gets the snap.

The receiving corps for the Rams is good but not great. Arguably their second-best player (behind Donald) is WR Cooper Kupp, but he’s been out of action since Week 10 with a high-ankle sprain. Without Kupp on the field, the Rams receivers don’t pose the same threat. Guys like WR Van Jefferson, WR Tutu Atwell, and WR Ben Skowronek are just role players at best. However, with the injuries to the position they are all playing larger-than-they-should roles for the Rams offense. For example, last week against the Green Bay Packers their leading receiver was Akers with three catches for 35 yards – and he’s a running back. Their leading receiver in that game – who is a receiver – was Jefferson with just two catches for 32 yards. The Broncos secondary should be able to easily handle this group of wide receivers.

The most dangerous weapon against the Broncos will be TE Tyler Higbee. Tight ends are usually a problem for the Broncos defense, but I do have to give credit to the improved coverage ability of ILB Josey Jewell. Like many modern tight ends, Higbee is a super-sized wide receiver who can threaten a defense with size and speed. Higbee can be a security blanket for Mayfield while at the same time proving to be the most explosive weapon in the Rams’ arsenal. The Broncos need to be cognizant of his whereabouts on every play.

Higs caps a 6-play, 70-yard drive! 🙌

8️⃣9️⃣ @Ty_Higs19 | 📺 @ESPNNFL pic.twitter.com/E3SzovMwfl

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) December 20, 2022

The Broncos should be able to harass Mayfield all day on Sunday. They must first stuff the run, but if they do that then facing a one-handed Rams offense with Mayfield at the helm is not a good one. Advantage; Broncos.

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Follow @CecilLammey